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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,421
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:34am Jul 31, 2015 8:34am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse can you more pls explain this part "If this is what I think is (massive clearing of longs) ...we are witnessing the unlock of the floodgates to the down side...." Thank you
Large long hands are clearing for the portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month. Basically if they clear longs, the floor (in the 1.08xx handle) will be naked and unprotected so a next test will blow it for a couple of hundred ticks non stop...

We'll see in a few...

Quoting FxMaximus
{quote} Sisse, you still holding short EUR/USD? Many have gone to change their under pants.... ahem! I am short and adding MORE short EUR/USD.
Of course. why should I flop?...We have been trading the same range and same levels for the last few weeks and I don't see a reason to clear a safe hand.

I am actually tempted to top up shorts 1.108x (the part of the short term swing I cleared on the test 1.096x early this week)but that I will play it intraday with london going home ... for now just sitting tight and tracking the open...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,422
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:34am Jul 31, 2015 8:34am
Quoting Banzaisky
Does anyone here know what just happened - I can't find anything
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

  • #136,423
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:37am Jul 31, 2015 8:37am
Please note that the percentage of retail/uncorrelated/uninformed shorts increases by the minute, despite the price going up...

k
  • #136,424
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:37am Jul 31, 2015 8:37am
Quoting chester123
{quote} http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm
I doubt it was enough for this move ....

Quoting kprsa
Please note that the percentage of retail/uncorrelated/uninformed shorts increases by the minute, despite the price going up... k
I doubt there is any small hands holding shorts after a large clean sweep like this ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,425
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:38am Jul 31, 2015 8:38am
Quoting Banzaisky
Does anyone here know what just happened - I can't find anything
as I understand, if the Employment cost showed 0.2% not 0.6% that's mean no inflation, and that's mean no rate increase ....
  • #136,426
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:40am Jul 31, 2015 8:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Doubt it was enough for this move .... {quote} I doubt there is any small hands holding shorts after a large clean like this ... sisse
I didn't think so either
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,427
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:48am Jul 31, 2015 8:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I doubt it was enough for this move .... {quote} I doubt there is any small hands holding shorts after a large clean sweep like this ... sisse
I guess you right. It´s pretty marginal report to cause "NFP reaction" even though we have higher FED´s focus on labor market. It seems to be just a trigger of something much bigger. Lets just consider gold - it went through the whole 10-day long range in almost "no time".

Quoting sisse
{quote} Large long hands are clearing for the portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month. Basically if they clear longs, the floor (in the 1.08xx handle) will be naked and unprotected so a next test will blow it for a couple of hundred ticks non stop... We'll see in a few... {quote} ... sisse
Hopefully this is the reason as it would be great news for the bears. Thank you for the explination.
  • #136,428
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:49am Jul 31, 2015 8:49am
Hey Guys,

I have been reading this thread for a couple of weeks now. Thanks ALL for sharing your opinions and skills.
I have just joined the communauty today, will be glad if I can share too. All the best !
  • #136,429
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:50am Jul 31, 2015 8:50am
What would the odds be that they will make a run for the 1.1450 area?, as thats really the most interesting area as I see it (easy to load large size shorts above there)
  • #136,430
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:56am Jul 31, 2015 8:56am
Quoting medvic
{quote} as I understand, if the Employment cost showed 0.2% not 0.6% that's mean no inflation, and that's mean no rate increase ....
There won't be a hike anyway LOL
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,431
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:57am Jul 31, 2015 8:57am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Large long hands are clearing for the portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month. Basically if they clear longs, the floor (in the 1.08xx handle) will be naked and unprotected so a next test will blow it for a couple of hundred ticks non stop... We'll see in a few... {quote} Of course. why should I flop?...We have been trading the same range and same levels for the last few weeks and I don't see a reason to clear a safe hand. I am actually tempted to top up shorts 1.108x (the part of the short term swing I cleared on the test 1.096x early...
Hey sisse, Never had patient to hold my positions like this. First time in history of my trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 66 KB
Intraday only.
  • #136,432
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:04am Jul 31, 2015 9:04am
I received this email from F X C M

Quote
Dear Client,

Margin requirements will be adjusted after market close on 31 July, 2015. Margin requirements (per 1K lot) at FXCM are determined by taking a percentage of the notional trade size plus a buffer to help alleviate fluctuations.

They only ever send such emails when they are expecting heavy volatility.

It makes me wonder what they are anticipating next week...!
  • #136,433
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:12am Jul 31, 2015 9:12am
well, good day today, another one shorting at the top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday only.
  • #136,434
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:14am Jul 31, 2015 9:14am
Quoting navk
{quote} Hey sisse, Never had patient to hold my positions like this. First time in history of my trading. {image}
Low liquidity, mid term compression range about to explode, it happens once or twice a year so ...enjoy mini swinging in H1 spikes as the range is wide enough to have a taster on how it feels and how to manage real swings ...

Keep up the good work. The longer you get use to manage longer trades, the most proficient you will become in trading ...even if you start in h1 ... after a while you wont regret making the step forward ...and prolly you wont ever want to get back to micro trading ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,435
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:16am Jul 31, 2015 9:16am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Low liquidity, mid term compression range about to explode ...enjoy mini swinging in H1 the spikes as the range is wide enough to have a taster on how it feels and how to manage real swings ... keep up the good work. The longer you get use to manage longer trades, the most proficient you will become in trading ...even if you start in h1 ... after a while you wont regret making the step forward ... sisse
Have been catching pips now and then, but never had a patience like this. in fact I will not say I had patinece, I took these trades after London drop and slept as it was my sleeping time, when I woke up, this !
Intraday only.
  • #136,436
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:18am Jul 31, 2015 9:18am
Quoting navk
{quote} Have been catching pips now and then, but never had a patience like this. in fact I will not say I had patinece, I took these trades after London drop and slept as it was my sleeping time, when I woke up, this !
lol mate ... you better develop some patience ...machine gun trading wont lead you anywhere in the long run ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,437
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:21am Jul 31, 2015 9:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} lol mate ... you better develop some patience ...machine gun trading wont lead you anywhere in the long run ... sisse
I agree. Making money while sleeping will not be fine in the longer run.

But I would say, I had technical reasons to take long trades, that is at least good, except patience ( due to sleep )
Intraday only.
  • #136,438
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:34am Jul 31, 2015 9:34am
Imo : Yesterday eurusd found a support @ 1.0892 at the bottom of the current pitchfork channel (see file attached)
Expected target of such pattern is the median trend line of the channel ie. >1.1350/1.14xx !!
I am wondering if this is the scary movie they want to play, killing the time till next friday....
I am long term short on eurusd so no worry, but crossing the ichimoku cloud @ 1.1140/1.1170 with a second clean candle of confirmation may open the road for a triple top @ 1.14xx before the (over)expected freefall to parity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd2.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #136,439
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:36am Jul 31, 2015 9:36am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Large long hands are clearing for the portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month. Basically if they clear longs, the floor (in the 1.08xx handle) will be naked and unprotected so a next test will blow it for a couple of hundred ticks non stop... We'll see in a few... {quote} Of course. why should I flop?...We have been trading the same range and same levels for the last few weeks and I don't see a reason to clear a safe hand. I am actually tempted to top up shorts 1.108x (the part of the short term swing I cleared on the test 1.096x early...
Hi I like your interpretation, we could be seeing the same thing. regards E
  • #136,440
  • Jul 31, 2015 9:41am Jul 31, 2015 9:41am
Quoting navk
{quote} I agree. Making money while sleeping will not be fine in the longer run. But I would say, I had technical reasons to take long trades, that is at least good, except patience ( due to sleep )
I am sure you did but don't forget that everybody have them all the time .... the key is in managing risk not in having technical triggers (if I just trade technical reasons alone I will have +500 trades a week ...je je je ) ...and thats where most newcomers (and not so newbies) around FF fail miserably:

  1. Instead of evaluating risk with their TA to take only the proper trades, they obsess in trying to take every single move. Thinking that "missing"/overlooking a move is a sign of a bad trader when the true is actually the opposite. The best traders are the ones who know when to stay aside and passing a trade opportunity because of poor risk.
  2. Instead of focusing in stops and managed risk they over-focus with the potential reward that usually never pans out because they either chicken out too soon or get married with a loser forever ...
  3. Instead of having a clear technical map to manage failure before entering a trade they just sit and hope their profits target are hit and usually get wiped out when they get caught in the wrong side (like everybody has to deal in our business).

In simple words, instead of being patience and expend 90% of the time managing risk, they just manage imaginary profits covered in the excuse of valid TA setups...

----- ------ ------ ----- -----

In any case, a very calm opening range completed so far. All markets behaving as they were before that last sharp spike...Tracking closely the first round of closes today with Europe going home in a few...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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