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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,401
  • Jul 30, 2015 8:01am Jul 30, 2015 8:01am
Quoting hoom
{quote} us$ demand insight then ... if only GDP printed a better number ...with momentum in play we could have finished the month with a sharp leg down ! hoom
yeap....

Well since yesterday neutral FED kicking the can until the next NFP/ inflation combo the odds of a momentum leg start diminishing a lot for this week.

After this GDP number, the odds are very very thin to almost non existent for taking the 1,08xx handle for this month momentum leg. A new test to the 1.10xx (1.102x again with max extension 1.108x) handle to put the euro to sleep until the triggers is on the making.

Bookmark your calendar especially August the 7th and the 19th and you can pretty much go on holidays till then ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,402
  • Jul 30, 2015 8:15am Jul 30, 2015 8:15am
Quoting sisse
{quote} yeap.... Well since yesterday neutral FED kicking the can until the next NFP/ inflation combo the odds of a momentum leg start diminishing a lot for this week. After this GDP number, the odds are very very thin to almost non existent for taking the 1,08xx handle for this month momentum leg. A new test to the 1.10xx (1.102x again with max extension 1.108x) handle to put the euro to sleep until the triggers is on the making. Bookmark your calendar especially August the 7th and the 19th and you can pretty much go on holidays till then...
bookmarked yesterday ...its hot and beach around the corner from my home ..enjoy summer mate .

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,403
  • Jul 30, 2015 8:20am Jul 30, 2015 8:20am
Quoting hoom
{quote} bookmarked yesterday ...its hot and beach around the corner from my home ..enjoy summer mate . hoom.
Its crap, rainy and cold here and the pub is around the corner ... so I will do my best ... je je je

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,404
  • Jul 30, 2015 8:32am Jul 30, 2015 8:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Its crap, rainy and cold here ... but I will do my best ... je je je sisse
oh ...I miss rain here ! 42° celcius today...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,405
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:27pm Jul 30, 2015 12:27pm
Quoting sisse
almost non existent for taking the 1,08xx handle for this month momentum leg. A new test to the 1.10xx (1.102x again with max extension 1.108x) handle to put the euro to sleep until the triggers is on the making.
Hmmm this last 4H candle confirms a break of 1.096x - are you still looking at 1.10xx that is in the making? I mean technically 1.08x is just as far as the 1.10x handle. But yeah bears seem to be losing steam, hourly wicks are getting long. However the end of the week/month is approaching so the beginning of the leg to parity might already have started. Is 1.10 (let alone 1.108x) still part of that move?

*edit: Anyway I'm keeping my shorts. I'm all in for the ride down. Stops at BE! Lowest shorts might not survive though. Let's see what happens. Taking a vacation next week. Hope all is still well when I return.
  • #136,406
  • Jul 30, 2015 1:05pm Jul 30, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Hmmm this last 4H candle confirms a break of 1.096x - are you still looking at 1.10xx that is in the making? I mean technically 1.08x is just as far as the 1.10x handle. But yeah bears seem to be losing steam, hourly wicks are getting long. However the end of the week/month is approaching so the beginning of the leg to parity might already have started. Is 1.10 (let alone 1.108x) still part of that move? *edit: Anyway I'm keeping my shorts. I'm all in for the ride down. Stops at BE! Lowest shorts might not survive though. Let's see what happens. Taking a vacation next week. Hope all is still well when I return.
What I meant is that the odds for a momentum break (break of the 1.08xx handle) this week are severely reduced. 1.102x is still open for a test as long as we don't break 1.096x tomorrow (W/M combo)... the rest is the same double play...today we couldn't even reach 1.088x (which is second target on the short term swing and momentum line below).

The GDP headline didn't help the cause for the current intraday leg thats it but it didn't change anything as the revision more than offset the headline which is the one real money will take for the proper legs ...

----- ------ ----- ----

In any case, euro kept grinding slowly down all session but without much flair.... 1.088x in strictly TA wasn't touch but "don't be a dick for a tick" rules applies in this cases so Check!!. There is only got one level to track until tomorrow 1.096x ....

Quoting sisse
...
For the hawkish plays, if you haven't loaded yet... 1,018x [check]is very marginally open for a quick test but a direct move is expected 1.102x [check] -> 1.096x so trading the break below is the best r:r ... Targeting the double play in the mid and short term targets (1.088x[check but sadly not cleared], 1.073x [in play] max ext 1.066x).
Quote
A neutral FED will allow to reload with the W/M combo on a confirmed break 1.096] [in play], loading directly on reports looks very poor r:r at these levels. Targeting same double play targets.

Nothing to do here, until the area is solve so same levels, same trades, same all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,407
  • Jul 31, 2015 3:27am Jul 31, 2015 3:27am
Euro struggling @ 1.096x and session fading fast. Inflation numbers coming in the EZ and that will kill the session and probably the day if NY decide to just close shop early in the summer.

Any consistent downtick in the inflation reading and the German "neocons" against QE will be vanished for a while leaving ECB QE live and kicking ....

In the euro, 1.102x still marginally open but Europe failing to retake 1.096x will set the the M/W roll around 1.088x later on the close ....

Nothing to do here. Same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,408
  • Jul 31, 2015 5:08am Jul 31, 2015 5:08am
...and that was it for the session. Inflation ticking up a notch (sometime to keep close track in the next few months in the EZ) with a bunch of mediocre EZ numbers.

Technically this starting to look like a "dead cat bounce" intraday more than anything else. NY open to kill the day but we will need a surprise miracle to change the map across the board.

The next round of dominos (for those interested check backposts for exact levels) is cook but this time is for a V. strong momentum leg as dollar (via FED) is also ready to play.

---> Again Gold will be the leading one to go first and like Oil is standing on air. Both looks ready to blow with slightly push to complete a glorious "panic" leg when the current soft lows are taken.

---> US equities hitting strong R and will have a last chance today until NFP to crack the top and safe the day (delay).

---> This time is not a preemptive leg but an actual RMT first leg especially after the next NFP which will put the last nail on the coffin. Very strong and deep legs early alerts triggered across the board with the M/W close with NFP will be the rain maker (big momentum) to complete first mid term targets.

---> In the Euro, no more fcking around after the last choppy intraday legs. We are officially in FOK ("fill or kill") mode in the next few sessions.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,409
  • Jul 31, 2015 5:11am Jul 31, 2015 5:11am
Quoting sisse
Again Gold will be the leading one to go first and like Oil is standing on air. Both looks ready to blow with slightly push to complete a glorious "panic" leg (check backposts for exact levels) when the current soft lows are taken
Are your alerts for an OIL bounce to the 51.x level still on the table?
  • #136,410
  • Jul 31, 2015 5:19am Jul 31, 2015 5:19am
Quoting eborn
{quote} Are your alerts for an OIL bounce to the 51.x level still on the table?
Yes but that is an unrelated hikes move (its a pure oil play).

I am not trading that potential leg because of TA and FA reasons. I will never ever catch a falling knife with the whole FA against the move, just to grab a short term news play and especially when you have major bets still on the other side.

$47.50 ---> 51.0x is the play (with obvisuly a couple of intermediate stops) and the best risk/reward for that play but the winning % in my experience will be on the lower side less than 25% chances giving the TA side so I pass this time.

GL if you take it.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,411
  • Jul 31, 2015 5:24am Jul 31, 2015 5:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes but that is unrelated hikes move (its a pure oil play). I am not trading that potential leg because of TA and FA reasons. I will never ever catch a falling knife with the whole FA against the move, just to grab a short term news play and especially when you have major bets still on the other side. $47.50 ---> 51.0x is the play (with obvisuly a couple of intermediate stops) and the best risk/reward for that play but the winning % in my experience will be on the lower side less than 25% chances giving the TA side so I pass this time. GL...
I understand. I took some shorts yesterday, but i'm out now. Don't want to risk it.
  • #136,412
  • Jul 31, 2015 7:22am Jul 31, 2015 7:22am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes but that is an unrelated hikes move (its a pure oil play). I am not trading that potential leg because of TA and FA reasons. I will never ever catch a falling knife with the whole FA against the move, just to grab a short term news play and especially when you have major bets still on the other side. $47.50 ---> 51.0x is the play (with obvisuly a couple of intermediate stops) and the best risk/reward for that play but the winning % in my experience will be on the lower side less than 25% chances giving the TA side so I pass this time....
I'm showing we test the 1.04xx lows for the midterm swing...watching this W/M close closely. Both the W/M candles looking ugly for bulls, TA targets all in alignment within a pip or two, possible normal LL bounce after 1.08xx for one more mid-term reload
  • #136,413
  • Jul 31, 2015 7:52am Jul 31, 2015 7:52am
Quoting hathor
{quote} {quote} 2015.05.24-29. week still defended
Still defended...weekly/monthly close will be crucial.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,414
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:00am Jul 31, 2015 8:00am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Still defended...weekly/monthly close will be crucial.
I'm over here watching like...
Attached Image
  • #136,415
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:15am Jul 31, 2015 8:15am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'm over here watching like... {image}
hehe...by the way monthly/weekly candle can be pretty nice for bulls if price emerge from current levels AND ALSO CLOSE AT THAT REGION. However candle formations in my opinion are not reliable at all...
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,416
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:16am Jul 31, 2015 8:16am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'm over here watching like... {image}
A wtf moment intraday ...1.102x and the extension 1.108x tested in a sharp out of the blue move (1.102x was a expected to be tested for NY open but not like this). All soft short hands cleaned, only major levels in play until the close.


Quoting sisse
{quote}.... After this GDP number, the odds are very very thin to almost non existent for taking the 1,08xx handle A new test to the 1.10xx (1.102x again with max extension 1.108x) [check] handle to put the euro t...

If this is what I think is (massive clearing of longs) ...we are witnessing the unlock of the floodgates to the down side....

Suddenly having to track closely NY open until Europe goes home .... sitting very thigh and tracking like a hawk 1.096x for the roll.

Equities with the upperhand for a first attempt to break R ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,417
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:23am Jul 31, 2015 8:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A wtf moment intraday ...1.102x and the extension 1.108x tested in a sharp out of the blu move (1.102x was a expected to be tested for NY open but not like this). All soft short hands cleaned, only major levels in play until the close. {quote} If this is what I think is (massive clearing of longs) ...we are witnessing the unlock of the floodgates to the down side.... Suddenly having to track closely NY open until Europe goes home .... sitting very high and tracking like a hawk 1.096x for the roll. Equities with the upperhand for a first...
Sisse can you more pls explain this part "If this is what I think is (massive clearing of longs) ...we are witnessing the unlock of the floodgates to the down side...."

Thank you
  • #136,418
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:25am Jul 31, 2015 8:25am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A wtf moment intraday ...1.102x and the extension 1.108x tested in a sharp out of the blue move (1.102x was a expected to be tested for NY open but not like this). All soft short hands cleaned, only major levels in play until the close. {quote} If this is what I think is (massive clearing of longs) ...we are witnessing the unlock of the floodgates to the down side.... Suddenly having to track closely NY open until Europe goes home .... sitting very thigh and tracking like a hawk 1.096x for the roll. Equities with the upperhand for a first...

Sisse, you still holding short EUR/USD? Many have gone to change their under pants.... ahem!

I am short and adding MORE short EUR/USD.
  • #136,419
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:33am Jul 31, 2015 8:33am
Does anyone here know what just happened - I can't find anything
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,420
  • Jul 31, 2015 8:34am Jul 31, 2015 8:34am
Quoting Banzaisky
Does anyone here know what just happened - I can't find anything
This is one massive Dollar Long shake out for the obvious. The big boys want it ALL when the tightening policy kicks in.
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