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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,381
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:34am Jul 29, 2015 11:34am
Quoting hoom
{quote} I don't need to watch this vid to understand that he's short us$
Well spotted
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,382
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:43am Jul 29, 2015 11:43am
Take a look at the Fed statement changes. IMO, every change is slightly hawkish, so market will eventually see that (seeing it now as I type) and USD will rise a bit.

As usual, Sisse was spot-on. Great job there. I'm looking for 1.096x level before NY opens tomorrow.
defense wins championships
  • #136,383
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:45am Jul 29, 2015 11:45am
Someone should tell that man a light purple tie and a dark blue shirt is a big NO. Money can buy a lot of things, but not style.
  • #136,384
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:53am Jul 29, 2015 11:53am
Quoting Banzaisky
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vyj9q6BTzb4
The guy is a nutter. Rich swiss loaded, playing the markets for the sake of popularity.... Always have been he always will be...

... only for this year his last doom/gloom/boom whatever was Gold rally 30% we are already -30% down ...but that is not the point ..he just do it for the sake of attention nothing interesting listening to guys like that when there are so many intelligent commentators around...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,385
  • Jul 29, 2015 11:59am Jul 29, 2015 11:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} The guy is a nutter. Rich swiss loaded, playing the markets for the sake of popularity.... Always have been he always will be... ... only for this year his last doom/gloom/boom whatever was Gold rally 30% we are already -30% down ...but that is not the point ..he just do it for the sake of attention nothing interesting listening to guys like that when there are so many intelligent commentators around... sisse
The year is not over yet LOL
How about PCR - he thinks same

Inserted Video
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,386
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:18pm Jul 29, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting seemoore
Take a look at the Fed statement changes. IMO, every change is slightly hawkish, so market will eventually see that (seeing it now as I type) and USD will rise a bit. As usual, Sisse was spot-on. Great job there. I'm looking for 1.096x level before NY opens tomorrow.

..Little faster than I thought. Good day. Expect a bounce here, lots of resistance & 161.8 extensions & the last 5 min chart ABCD just ended here. See you all tomorrow.
defense wins championships
  • #136,387
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:18pm Jul 29, 2015 12:18pm
...and clearing first short term target 1.096x in a simple move...and that will probably kill the day ...Nothing else to see. Same levels, same trades same all until the W/M roll combo.

sisse

Quoting sisse
The scenarios in order of priority and probability:

  1. Markets aligned for an inline/neutral FED which in this case means confirming slightly hawkish outlook that will trigger confirmation with the next inflation/nfp combo for momentum [super check]

Quote
​---> On the technical side:

For the levels of reference on main markets check back posts with exact levels, targets and flows but for the Euro for the 3 scenarios above:

  1. A neutral/slightly hawkish FED opens a short term swing with the W/M combo 1.108x [check]---> 1.066x (former 1.073x which is still open) with strong intermediate stops 1.096x [check] which is UBER key for the W/M close. But more importantly it will open the first impulsive

...


Quote
---> For the actual flows for the initial play/reaction:

  1. A.... 1.096x [check]is the key pivotal point. 1.128x top of the range 1.088xbottom (and momentum line)
  2. For the hawkish plays, if you haven't loaded yet... *1,108x [check]is very marginally open for a quick test ....
  3. A neutral FED will allow to reload with the W/M combo on a confirmed break 1.096x [check],

...

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,388
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:34pm Jul 29, 2015 12:34pm
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} The year is not over yet LOL How about PCR - he thinks same https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ru9mtz9-3ls
Even if we end up rallying 30% for the year a 100% margin of error pretty much kill any sense of a trading call. Its like me calling the S&P will reach 3000 !!! ... sure it will.... someday in the future but its pretty much pointless for trading ...

Mate I must admit that is interesting to have different political views in these boards.

However, and don't get me wrong, I have the feeling that you are probably listening to very conservative political views analysing economic issues which for trading purposes are probably too bias to be useful in our business. Sure we can have a long debate in the political economy of these issues but for actual trading purposes we wont get too far ...

As you know, markets and trading don't really like too extreme bias (to any side). Imagine markets deciding to not ride the massive +250% rally in equities because Obama was too socialist and lefty, or for that matter markets deciding to just not jumping on board the boom in the 80s with Reagan policies because they are too severe on cuts, or whatever .... you get the point...

Our aim as traders is riding the pig and we must try to keep as objective as markets react to the news as possible ... if we trade only our political bias we would be gone out of business in a sec....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,389
  • Jul 29, 2015 12:48pm Jul 29, 2015 12:48pm
I've made more money listening to people on Forex Factory than I ever have listening to someone on TV.
  • #136,390
  • Jul 29, 2015 1:50pm Jul 29, 2015 1:50pm
Just to explain why I"m calling this statement Slightly Hawkish. Here’s the new statement with the changes from the last statement marked in blue below. As you can see these are ALL the changes:

 

  1. Economic expansion activity no longer references slow first quarter. <<HAWKISH
  2. Eliminated ‘pace of job gains picked up’ with unemployment steady (instead of reducing unemployment) & labor market underutilization diminished somewhat. <<HAWKISH
  3. Spending & housing upgraded from “some” improvement to “additional” improvement <<SLIGHTLY HAWKISH
  4. Added labor market job gains & declining unemployment (see #2 above) & underutilization of labor diminished {note this is precursor to wage inflation}<<VERY HAWKISH
  5. Eliminated energy price stabilization <<Neutral as strong dollar (from strong US economy) will pull down energy prices in short term
  6. Added “some” further improvement to jobs as a lower requirement to raise rates than previously which required 'further improvement'. <<VERY HAWKISH as lower hurdles are easier to cross.


My take is that the FX market is getting it right with the early reaction and the stock market & talking heads on TV are wrong. Usually it takes 2-3 days for the market to figure it out, but here, note we have US GDP Thursday morning, which may speed up recognition (or not). I think September is still the base case for the Fed to raise rates.



http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...blueline_0.jpg

defense wins championships
  • #136,391
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:49pm Jul 29, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting Pharm0r
I've made more money listening to people on Forex Factory than I ever have listening to someone on TV.
Me too, mainly Sisse - but it does depend on your timescale Marc and PCR are looking at the long term - not daytrading.
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,392
  • Jul 29, 2015 4:13pm Jul 29, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Even if we end up rallying 30% for the year a 100% margin of error pretty much kill any sense of a trading call. Its like me calling the S&P will reach 3000 !!! ... sure it will.... someday in the future but its pretty much pointless for trading ... Mate I must admit that is interesting to have different political views in these boards. However, and don't get me wrong, I have the feeling that you are probably listening to very conservative political views analysing economic issues which for trading purposes are probably too bias to be useful...
Marc made his gold prediction in Nov when gold was at 1200 - he also said it could drop to $1000 first, - so its dropped 10% and he predicted it would gain 30% by end 2015 - thats abt 1500 and that is perfectly possible IMO. He didn't say sometime he said by end 2015 so not for daytrades but still tradeable - I been long and adding and hedging since 1300.

Bias in the market is not necessarily political and I am pretty sure Marc is a-political He is biased because he thinks printing money devalues a currency against hard assets - thats why equities have gone up 250% As soon as they launched QE1 it was pretty obvious what would happen to equities. Thats not political bias it's FA.

Re the rate hike - again, it's not tradeable yet and won't be until the market realises that theres not going to be one, in the mean time EU is a sell - not sure I would ever buy EU anyway.
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,393
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:11pm Jul 29, 2015 7:11pm
Quoting sisse
For those trading and following OIL conversations. Unexpected alerts triggered for a quick test 51.2x as early as this week. Time to sit tight as interventions in price are coming Saudis are cutting pcc so there must be really scare of what is about to come in oil prices (sub $40s....)...Nice timing before the FED .... sisse
Hi sisse
Does this still hold any truth after the FOMC in your opinion? I guess it's not that easy to tell, but so far, it looks like it does
  • #136,394
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:13pm Jul 29, 2015 7:13pm
Quoting ws121
{quote} Hi sisse Does this still hold any truth after the FOMC in your opinion? I guess it's not that easy to tell, but so far, it looks like it does
I belive that was due to the Saudis saying they were going to cut production
  • #136,395
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:52am Jul 30, 2015 12:52am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I belive that was due to the Saudis saying they were going to cut production
Thanks mate. So I guess that means it should still have the same significance regardless of fomc
  • #136,396
  • Edited 1:51am Jul 30, 2015 1:34am | Edited 1:51am
From the Feds mouthpiece

So as we tipped earlier, "nothing today, almost certainly nothing in September,

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-delay-liftoff
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #136,397
  • Edited 3:09am Jul 30, 2015 2:59am | Edited 3:09am
Quoting seemoore
Just to explain why I"m calling this statement Slightly Hawkish.....
Interesting observations....

Yeap agree with you on the employment part. I don't now who really buy the "further improvements in the labour market" anymore. To give the benefit of the doubt, FED maybe expecting an awful contraction on the Q2 final numbers and they are preventing a shock later...

Nothing that the next round of data can hide so it will be very straight forward between the next GDP and NFP numbers...

sisse

Quoting Banzaisky
From the Feds mouthpiece So as we tipped earlier, "nothing today, almost certainly nothing in September, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-delay-liftoff
Yeap ...the bastards have been very busy in the main media outlets spreading fear of hikes. They are everywhere today...and wait for the US to wakes up and the big guns go on tour..

They will start using the heavy artillery now that the rate seems unavoidable...end of the sugar rush and time to let the economy walk alone ...

The longer they delay, the more difficult it will become to increase rates, but more importantly ....

the stronger and more negative the impact on the economy will be ...


In any case, monthly flows in full motion until tomorrow. For today nothing to see until the last report of the month. Advanced GDP numbers usually are a bit on the back burner on reports but today are more important than usual given the FED yesterday and the timing....

...until then Euro bulls keep fighting and hanging on the edge of the cliff, whenever we resolve the area (hopefully soon and not in September), its going to big very big momentum move ....for now same levels, same trades, same all...

We'll see in a few

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,398
  • Jul 30, 2015 5:17am Jul 30, 2015 5:17am
... here we go for the last round of report to settle the monthly close.

Pretty straight forward flow in direct moves expected. Either feed the FOMC move from yesterday with inline or better than expected news or put as in wide intraday chop zone until next week on a flop so same levels in play for the reports since yesterday.

1.096x is the only level in play for the W/M close. 1.088x opens momentum on the short term swing. To other side nothing to see with wide intraday chop zone till 1.108x ....

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,399
  • Jul 30, 2015 5:34am Jul 30, 2015 5:34am
miss on the GDP and overshoot in inflation .... noisy and choppy combo.... That closed the month on the reports front.

For the next few sessions all technical levels for the M flows to position and rebalancing portfolios for the imminent rates in September ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,400
  • Jul 30, 2015 5:52am Jul 30, 2015 5:52am
Quoting sisse
miss on the GDP and overshoot in inflation .... noisy and choppy combo.... That closed the month on the reports front. For the next few sessions all technical levels for the M flows to position and rebalancing portfolios for the imminent rates in September .... sisse
us$ demand insight then ... if only GDP printed a better number ...with momentum in play we could have finished the month with a sharp leg down !

hoom
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