The Really Useless Thread

Here we go for the first of many potential big mover and shakers FED days to come during the next few months (we'll have rates in play for each meeting at least for the next 12 months !!!).

---> Main markets (Bonds, Equites & Commodities) except Dollar (which stayed constrain in range) completed the preemptive rate legs earlier this week and are sitting waiting to either let it go as soon as this week or chop around for a few more weeks before the September imminent hike (at least with the data until today FOMC statement).

---> Dollar will be in the lead today across the board as it will get flood from all fronts in case of a hawkish/nearly confirmation of Sep hike (or even worst with an unexpected hike today). Markets aligning for a neutral/inline/"nothing new" FED. Meaning keep the slightly hawkish tone with imminent hikes coming which will translate in a relatively calm moves across the board for this evening FOMC (and a decent but measured move in dollar).

For now, nothing to see across the board until the announcement and in the Euro 1.108x is the only level to glance until later....

sisse

A rate hike today would probably be the funniest thing in 2015

I thought the funniest thing already happened this year (Jan 15 SNB)
The MM laughed so much at retail traders who think can make money in Forex.

Hahah good point. I found that a rather shocking sight at first but also had a good laugh about it afterwards. Thank god I removed my short stop below the peg! Illiquidity would have opened the position at rock bottom and then catapulted back up and destroy my account.

Grrr, had to get away from the desk when the oil reserves where announced. S/o on two sell limit orders higher up. Nothing to bad, but now I have to pinpoint a new entry. It might just go up to the 50-line and drop from there after FOMC. But it's a tricky beast atm.

...and that was it for the session ... we are ready for the FOMC so good time to review the last 2 weeks pre Fomc across the board. Nothing new since last updates in treasuries.

---> Gold stayed in chop zone filling air as expected waiting for the FED today.

---> Although Oil closed the week a few points below the key 48.3x it was not enough to sustain a fresh break especially after reports today. 48.3x is a mid term level so it will need a push from the rest of the board (via the FED) and technically the W/M combo close at least ....

--->US equities as expected completed the preemptive move and are sitting back on break out point for the FED today ...

For today, all eyes are on dollar as it will be the leading one for a potential FED move. A break (Dxy +98 for reference) will open a extended leg across all FX pairs.... For the euro and the Fed play ... in a few lines right after ...

sisse

Probably the last FOMC before hikes so extra attention from now till the first hikes.

---> On the fundamental side:

1. There is very little to see or anaylze for this meeting. Either is a confirmation of expectation for September hike or open a tiny bit of hope for doves for first hikes in Q4 2015.
2. Expecting a rather neutral/slightly + outlook on the economy.
3. Inflation is maybe the only one that can help doves this time so eyes on the FED comments on falling oil prices and the impact on deflation in the mid term.

The scenarios in order of priority and probability:

1. Markets aligned for an inline/neutral FED which in this case means confirming slightly hawkish outlook that will trigger confirmation with the next inflation/nfp combo for momentum before the first hikes in September. Bonds, Equities, Gold and Commodities already made the initial clearing of S & R so they just need to roll. However Dollar hasn't yet, so expecting lots of flows to dollar strength in the upcoming weeks...
2. A dovish FED will caught markets in the wrong foot and it will trigger profit taking across most markets in the preemptive legs and sadly for us it will put most markets to sleep (and chop) for the rest of the summer ....
3. A super hawkish FED (or a unexpected hike today) and we will have confirmation of hikes in September triggering extensive continuation legs in all markets to first mid term targets including all dollar pairs.

---> On the technical side:

For the levels of reference on main markets check back posts with exact levels, targets and flows but for the Euro for the 3 scenarios above:

1. A neutral/slightly hawkish FED opens a short term swing with the W/M combo 1.108x ---> 1.066x (former 1.073x which is still open) with strong intermediate stops 1.096x which is UBER key for the W/M close. But more importantly it will open the first impulsive mid term leg to parity (and beyond)
2. A dovish FED will open a measured move to test the highs (1.14xx handle) with strong stops @ 1.128x.
3. A super hawkish FED will not only add LOTS of momentum to the first scenario but will open first mid term target @ 1.049x in no time.

Whatever the case in play. 1.096x is the rain maker for the FOMC W/M roll combo. A break below will unlock 0.91xx in the mid term and parity before years end.


---> For the actual flows for the initial play/reaction:

1. As usual in these kind of news. ALL MICRO LEVELS RAISED for the actual announcement. 1.096x is the key pivotal point. 1.128x top of the range 1.088x bottom (and momentum line)
2. For the hawkish plays, if you haven't loaded yet... 1,018x is very marginally open for a quick test but a direct move is expected 1.102x -> 1.096x so trading the break below is the best r:r to avoid getting crush on air. Targeting the double play in the mid and short term targets (1.088x, 1.073x max ext 1.066x).
3. A neutral FED will allow to reload with the W/M combo on a confirmed break 1.096x, loading directly on reports looks very poor r:r at these levels. Targeting same double play targets.
4. For the dovish plays. A quick reverso 1.108x for a quick play 1.114x and then ride a very bumpy leg to the highs of the 1.140xx handle if the level is taken with W/M roll. Not for my taste but a valid one ...

GL all managing trades, trading today or simple tracking the key FOMC ...

sisse

For those trading and following OIL conversations. Unexpected alerts triggered for a quick test 51.2x as early as this week.

Time to sit tight as interventions in price are coming Saudis are cutting pcc so there must be really scare of what is about to come in oil prices (sub $40s....)...Nice timing before the FED ....

sisse

Thanks for the heads up. Following closely.

Slight dovish via employment but inline with inflation which is more important this time ...

Next NFP will be the trigger confirmed by the FED .... thats it for today ...

All eyes on 1.108x for the roll...

sisse

That means 1.14 is in the picture?

No i don't think so. FED clearly linking the hike Sep to the next *NFP (that is the dovish part). Inflation reached target (that is the important part). We have both inflation and employment on target and confirmed.

My final reading is inline / neutral but with a slight dovish tone until the FED (meaning chop until then).... 1,108x tested so let see ... Expecting chop until the W/M roll and then NFP will be it for momentum...

Don't forget 1.096x is the rain maker....

sisse

Thanks Sisse, as always, great work!

EURUSD balancing between daily pivot and S1. On the verge of breaking the last. I'm hoping for a quick visit at 1.096x.

uff... FED need to sort it out already...dxy trying to regain 97 & above...this ain't helping...wide chop between levels discussed previously ..am disappointed

hoom

"The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market"

NFP should be the ultimate trigger for sept hikes .

hoom

Yeap ...basically a nice way to avoid making a direct statement for a couple of weeks and let markets "interpret" the hikes without the FED saying a word ... smart play from the FED ...

sisse

Choo choooooooo

did you get summer flu mate

I don't need to watch this vid to understand that he's short us$