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  • #1,014,901
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:10am Jul 30, 2015 11:10am
Quoting Luther
{quote} April? Lol... I'm not projecting that far ahead. US/EU Policy divergence with Euro now a funding currency for carry trades and no major Euro crisis before September, a 500 pip drop from here is nothing. The BS level of the reports doesn't matter. NFP is cooked anyway and no one cares. September rate hike is zero sentiment, and we've been dropping since Tsipras agreed to the bail out terms anyway. If things go pear shaped in Autumn the FED may become more dovish. Or even better when the Greek crisis comes to a head with an IMF/Germany/Greece...
last april.. time line it to breaks.. it never should have traded above 1051.. gdp bs report followed by fomc using the bs report.. sentiment before than was more hawkish from fed up till than.. we are on larger charts.. just like a news spike against techs settles down..we have a spike since april based on bs news.. it too will settle and resume the tech move lower
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,014,902
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:11am Jul 30, 2015 11:11am
Quoting verified
{quote} good one - not sure if we get there.
I think when
Most likely after 5pm EST when the spread will be High (Bustards)
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #1,014,903
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:12am Jul 30, 2015 11:12am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} I think more DOWN
possible. watching 2.1370
As Above, So Below
  • #1,014,904
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:16am Jul 30, 2015 11:16am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} GU just broke support 1.558x - I might keep GA short longer and see where it goes from here
Nice one. 2.140 the midpoint of the move up from 2.130. If it keeps falling 2.1380 area looks good.
  • #1,014,905
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:32am Jul 30, 2015 11:32am
Quoting deylon
{quote} what indicator is this
You can find as DWMRanges. This one is comment section modified.
  • #1,014,906
  • Edited Jul 31, 2015 3:39am Jul 30, 2015 11:38am | Edited Jul 31, 2015 3:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} last april.. time line it to breaks.. it never should have traded above 1051.. gdp bs report followed by fomc using the bs report.. sentiment before than was more hawkish from fed up till than.. we are on larger charts.. just like a news spike against techs settles down..we have a spike since april based on bs news.. it too will settle and resume the tech move lower
OK, I see what you're saying now.

The thing with the rise in April was a combination of factors, some it was US FED related, but a big part of it was also the ECB change in the Maastrict treaty in January and the lowered borrowing cost for Euro. In 2012 when we had the first Greek crisis, Euro behaved normally and fell, but in 2015 it did the opposite. One reason was Draghi has more flexibility for OMO with the treaty changes to support the Euro. The other is now with risk off carry unwinds, the flows go back into Euro, so it behaves completely differently than it used to.

Lagarde, Draghi, and Brussels agreed that 1.100 was fair valuation for Euro back in February, so they established a price corridor which balances the SDR basket to keep credit cost pressure off the EU while they were dealing with the crisis.

Once it was patched up, we could resume the trade.
  • #1,014,907
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:40am Jul 30, 2015 11:40am
stops moved to 0980
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,014,908
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:41am Jul 30, 2015 11:41am
Quoting gatorinla
stops moved to 0980
Looking into the future, I see reasons to come back to 1.09xx
planning for At least once
  • #1,014,909
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:44am Jul 30, 2015 11:44am
Quoting Luther
{quote} OK, I see what you're saying now. Yeah, the thing with the rise in April was a combination of factors, but a big part of it was the ECB change in the Maastrict treaty in January and the lowered borrowing cost for Euro. In 2012 when we had the first Greek crisis, Euro behaved normally and fell, but in 2015 it did the opposite. One reason was Draghi has more flexibility for OMO with the treaty changes to support the Euro. The other is now with risk off carry unwinds the flows go back into Euro, so it behaves completely differently than it...
did u timeline the breaks? one currency placed the euro at 1.6 when it was dropping like a rock before 911.. one currency subsidized the entire emu currency..now thats taken away.. (sorry japan is doing it for the emu now with other asian countries)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,014,910
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:52am Jul 30, 2015 11:52am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Looking into the future, I see reasons to come back to 1.09xx planning for At least once
its a gamble,, some R at 0927/8 expected.. strength unknown.. the same others at 0904/05 but this time from under.. 0964 and last weeks 0974/76.. i will close my lower group if i think it prudent, manually
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,014,911
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:58am Jul 30, 2015 11:58am
still short from 1.0935, not sure to take profits now or wait till tmrw news.

I have stop on 1.093 to secure tp.

With IMF refuse greece bailout, what will happen to EU?
  • #1,014,912
  • Jul 30, 2015 11:59am Jul 30, 2015 11:59am
Quoting siawkia
still short from 1.0935, not sure to take profits now or wait till tmrw news. I have stop on 1.093 to secure tp. With IMF refuse greece bailout, what will happen to EU?
you can always take half your position size if not sure...
the other half set to breakeven like you did
  • #1,014,913
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:03pm Jul 30, 2015 12:03pm
just closed a 4 h below 0927. its a new red 4h candle.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,014,914
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:05pm Jul 30, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
facebook did well on earnings and its dropping.. apple (chart) made a LL.. maybe i should take that uj short with a tight stop.. apple setting up a dead cat bounce 125.8 {image}
Because of UJ struggling at tops, I have deleveraged a bit on EU (dropped ,0965 shorts and one third of ,105 shorts), got next partial set at ,08557. That top on UJ is so compressed is almost free short now with great RR to test 123,77...allowing EU to correct and reload shorts. H1 got 3x +- doji holding move up and current m15 closed pin down, so may be valid entry. Is just daily also made a HH and attempting to test tops, so am a bit afraid. Also AU holds lows so may bounce. On the other hand SaP kinda bullish today, so should stock buying continue through Tokyo and Nikkei gets bought is UJ testing tops, so not like it was safe. Also that UJ could be considered uptrend triangle uptrend on h1 scale. But definitely there is some huge bear @ 124,5 (possibly it is Kiwitrada )
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,014,915
  • Edited 12:31pm Jul 30, 2015 12:10pm | Edited 12:31pm
usdjpy triangle can be considered broken to the downside..(although no violent move)...may be false break may be not...I entered short anyway
here we go...broken down...added some big short with tight stop, very low risk with high reward...let's see if it works out..
just need 1 trade like this with profit, can afford like 5-7 losing trade and still in green...
  • #1,014,916
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:11pm Jul 30, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Because of UJ struggling at tops, I have deleveraged a bit on EU (dropped ,0965 shorts and one third of ,105 shorts), got next partial set at ,08557. That top on UJ is so compressed is almost free short now with great RR to test 123,77...allowing EU to correct and reload shorts. H1 got 3x +- doji holding move up and current m15 closed pin down, so may be valid entry. Is just daily also made a HH and attempting to test tops, so am a bit afraid. Also AU holds lows so may bounce. On the other hand SaP kinda bullish today, so should stock buying...
i took my eu shot..looking to add. i can get my pip to % down i hope..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,014,917
  • Edited Jul 31, 2015 1:46am Jul 30, 2015 12:14pm | Edited Jul 31, 2015 1:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} did u timeline the breaks? one currency placed the euro at 1.6 when it was dropping like a rock before 911.. one currency subsidized the entire emu currency..now thats taken away.. (sorry japan is doing it for the emu now with other asian countries)
They all take turns. You can practically set your watch to it. My longer term carries are based purely on CB policy divergence with technical triggers, so it's an area I spend a lot of time following.

Unfortunately, the current monetary policies are geared towards unified CB support with BIS and IMF in a macro guidance role. The big issue is this is being done without any meaningful fiscal policies that drive real growth or productivity. So here for instance, we are being deleveraged to prop up EMU and the US, but there's no fiscal policy to support average earnings or quality of life, so it's had a big impact on everyone.

They started the negative credit cycle here in the 80's by manufacturing the bubble crisis. They dismantled window guidance of our ministry of finance which controlled debt and lending practices, so we went from a highly productive debt free society, to having one of the largest debts to GDP in under 30 years. It was completely avoidable.

A big part of the problem is disposable society and hyper consumer cycles, like replacing a smart phone every two years. 40 years ago no one even threw away pens or lighters. People bought one thing and used it until it broke or they died and passed it on to their kids. The disposable society has generated large amounts of waste and debt. It may seem normal, but it's not.
  • #1,014,918
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:20pm Jul 30, 2015 12:20pm
EUR/USD finally broke below the support at 1.0980 visible on the daily filter chart. The pair will likely continue descending towards the previous low at 1.0800.
  • #1,014,919
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:22pm Jul 30, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i took my eu shot..looking to add.
Well I also feel cozy with my shorts , is much cozier than with those countertrend trades of mine. I generally consider 1,14 hold as a very strong confirmation of last leg down...but just as Luther was posting few pages before, EU was making almost perfect bottoming pattern, so I was hoping to ride whooole cycle from the very bottom. Am still thinking of that Oil theory of yours, and my main problem now is Euro didnt exist that long time ago, so am unable to analyze whole timeserie. But generally saying if we take Ecu as predecessor of Eur and make a basket of currencies so we can examine EU movement back to 1970s (thats about the max), is a classical 5 wave cycle (3 subcycles). Should this current subcycle (2000 till now) be the last and your theory valid, we really may be entering new age of Euro bear. Well, lets wait what PA tells us.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,014,920
  • Jul 30, 2015 12:24pm Jul 30, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} you can always take half your position size if not sure... the other half set to breakeven like you did
I only got 1 contract, so I guess my IG broker won't allow me to close half contract. Going to tp @1.09 then.

Was expecting EU to move even lower with IMF rejects bailout, but I guess it is not happening
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