News trading discussion - continuation

Oli

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Three heroes next week from 27 to 31 July.

Next week will put an end to speculation: what is the "you", the second quarter of 2015. Most often asked themselves this question with the British American. Finally, the guys will get the answer to this question.

Monday


We follow the publication Core Durable Goods Orders from the United States, the news can be regarded as an indicator of nervousness before publishing USD Advanced GDP on Thursday.

Tuesday

The first swallow weighty week claims to be a hawk month: Prelim GDP - the first estimate of GDP growth in the UK the second quarter. We have already written about the fact that the second quarter after a reduction in the rate of the first markets to be considered quite painful. Not as zealously as is generally the second half of 2015, but quite painful.
Preliminary bitterness "IIkv" you may have seen in the publication of weak data British retail.

Wednesday

In the evening, a meeting of the FOMC, of ​​course, no one expects a rate hike in July, to the same type of the meeting "is not the key," no press conference Yellen. Markets all wallow in the whirlpool of "September-December" on the issue of interest rate increase, the ratio is 35/65, closer to winter. Perhaps the protocols Wednesday will make the amendments in the sight of the market.

Thursday

After the protocol followed by another blow to the dollar: US Preliminary GDP growth, the situation is comparatively British, the smallest growth since "possible hawkish protocols" will make you replace the monitor on a wide screen vertically to review the charts of USD.

Friday

We participate in the third week of GDP, this time in Canada.
It looks like the last week of July will be quite volatile

Tuesday
11:30
07/28/15
GB Advance GDP growth HOT!
(GB Prelim GDP), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 70.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

vvfsh good day,someone directed me from a technical thread to your thread when i was clamouring about news experts. please i need you to recommend good brokers that dont manipulate trade during news release. I also need a working dtechnique or EA mnews trading.thank u in advance

hi VVfish-

I see you still trade this. Interesting. Is this live account? Do yoru stops get filled? Or getting slipped to death?

Wednesday
21:00
07/29/15
US Interest Rate
(US Federal Funds Rate), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

What to expect from the Fed in this environment?


Changes in interest rates - should not be expected. Change the wording of the text of protocols - is expected. Volatility - should be expected.
Market - a living organism, which has its own character, a line of conduct, its own brain chemistry and of course nerve cells. The closer the "H", the tighter tense nerves. Now the dollar market time "W" is a term expected to increase the interest rate the Fed FOMC, and the correction, when it is "H" stands come as US statistics and the Fed itself.
This week we are waiting for just two key points, which will be based on expectations of future: the decision FOMC, and the publication of the preliminary GDP growth. The first appears in public decision FOMC.
No one expects a rate hike in July, but almost all believe in the increasingly fierce nature of minutes of meetings published in parallel.
Since the previous meeting of the American Federal Reserve statistics do not show a strong argument that could reinforce expectations for more arguments followed by statements by the Fed. Accordingly, it can be assumed that the protocol will leave forecasted values ​​for the economy at the same level as yourself wording minutes and can be made more stringent. Now the markets are laying about 35% -40% chance of a rate hike in September, and this figure can be adjusted after reading protocols.
In the interest the Fed is gradually preparing markets for rate hike (when she was not planned), as excessive volatility nobody wants: control of the situation - it is "our everything".
The market ignored the publication of US Core Durable Goods Orders, and took to heart troubles in China, which indicates the intensity of the eve of the publication of the decision.
Dark side of the Moon. Expectations to the minutes apparently somewhat exaggerated, and if the protocols are not sharpened by hints of imminent tightening of monetary policy, the dollar would not remain in their positions.
In general, you have to realize that it all depends on the tone of the protocols, which we met in the evening of that environment.

At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.
I don't have any statistics for today.
Good luck everybody!

Big miss... did you trade it?

Thursday
10:30
07/30/15
SE GDP growth
(SE GDP), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
15:30
07/30/15
US Advance GDP growth HOT!
(US Advance GDP), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
07/30/15
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
45% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Until the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting the markets laid the 38% probability of a rate hike in September 2015, after the meeting, the figure is now ...
It is 38.6%. Not much, which is not surprising. A considerable amount of waiting remains at December 70% this past month in 2015. Present under the Christmas tree?
A little dry facts: the US Federal Reserve emphasizes the success of the labor market, so that this becomes an indicator for us is even more toxic. Tension on the inflationary pressures in the opinion of most members of the committee weakened further bares a key indicator of Non-Farm Payrolls in the face of volatility (next publication August 7).
Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
... Appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term ...
"The Fed is confident that inflation will be moving to its target level, and the rate can be raised when they see more evidence of improvement in the labor market."
This protocol is not only escalate the situation around the NFP, and transmits all the trumps US Advance GDP (preliminary GDP growth), which will be published on Thursday.

USDSEK