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USD/CAD

  • #8,041
  • Jul 28, 2015 11:58am Jul 28, 2015 11:58am
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  • #8,042
  • Jul 28, 2015 6:30pm Jul 28, 2015 6:30pm
Went Long at 1.2936 sl 1.2900 tp 1.2995 for a Short term trade.
Big move at NY session today with the S&P rallying hard.
FOMC tmrw so reckon there should be some pull back tonight.
Keep an eye out for chinese stocks today, and AUD's slow grind higher is always met by sharp drops this week.
Will stay long with USDCAD as real money is adding on dips. The rate cut that occurred should bring USDCAD higher in the medium term. Just my two cents!
  • #8,043
  • Jul 29, 2015 10:10am Jul 29, 2015 10:10am
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  • #8,044
  • Jul 29, 2015 2:25pm Jul 29, 2015 2:25pm
FOMC is done... so Any one knows about the fate of this pair ... what is gonna happen now..?
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #8,045
  • Jul 29, 2015 2:30pm Jul 29, 2015 2:30pm
Painfully I didn't TP at 1.2960 and got stopped at 1.2900 prior to fomc.

I re-popped long at 1.2870 at fomc, still think it should continue upwards.

Leaving a stop at 1.2860 since i'm in the money at the moment and hoping to rally back to 1.30xx this week.

FOMC seems to suggest rate hike, so its bullish for the USD in general, I will stay long USD.
  • #8,046
  • Jul 29, 2015 4:05pm Jul 29, 2015 4:05pm
Quoting motiurbd
FOMC is done... so Any one knows about the fate of this pair ... what is gonna happen now..?
No one knows for sure, but here is my two cents.

Today's bounce can be seen as a bounce from previous channel top and 23.6% fib, however, if we are to expecting a proper retracement, then target 38.2% and 50%, which are at 1.2728 and 1.2614 respectively. Afterall, hitting 1.3065 multi-year high and failed, market should look for some lower level to load up another attack, and I don't see pros be so impatient from launch their attacks from 1.29.

Oil also bounce up and I'd like to see it re-test 50 before move to downside again. If 50 is broken then USDCAD should go even lower. Bear in mind that BOC cut rate because oil didn't hit their forecast level of 60, if oil is moving back to that level, that means BOC need to review their policy move and another cut is basically of the table.
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  • #8,047
  • Jul 29, 2015 4:13pm Jul 29, 2015 4:13pm
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  • #8,048
  • Jul 29, 2015 4:31pm Jul 29, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} No one knows for sure, but here is my two cents. Today's bounce can be seen as a bounce from previous channel top and 23.6% fib, however, if we are to expecting a proper retracement, then target 38.2% and 50%, which are at 1.2728 and 1.2614 respectively. Afterall, hitting 1.3065 multi-year high and failed, market should look for some lower level to load up another attack, and I don't see pros be so impatient from launch their attacks from 1.29. Oil also bounce up and I'd like to see it re-test 50 before move to downside again. If 50 is broken...


Thanks a lot sir... Actually I am in short with this pair from 1.3085 and 1.3070 and other ... Your analysis will help me a lot.. I pray that your insight will come true
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #8,049
  • Jul 29, 2015 4:49pm Jul 29, 2015 4:49pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} No one knows for sure, but here is my two cents. Today's bounce can be seen as a bounce from previous channel top and 23.6% fib, however, if we are to expecting a proper retracement, then target 38.2% and 50%, which are at 1.2728 and 1.2614 respectively. Afterall, hitting 1.3065 multi-year high and failed, market should look for some lower level to load up another attack, and I don't see pros be so impatient from launch their attacks from 1.29. Oil also bounce up and I'd like to see it re-test 50 before move to downside again. If 50 is broken...
Much depends how other commodity pairs and UJ doing.UJ goes down UC AU NZD appreciate in value.
So far we have not seen typical aggressive BOJ buy of Yen
We'll see if they tolerate above 24
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,050
  • Jul 29, 2015 8:54pm Jul 29, 2015 8:54pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Much depends how other commodity pairs and UJ doing.UJ goes down UC AU NZD appreciate in value. So far we have not seen typical aggressive BOJ buy of Yen We'll see if they tolerate above 24 Regards
Good insights. Haven't thought about the correlation of UJ to commodity pairs, but the bounce up from 121 makes UJ looks quite vulnerable for the upside.
  • #8,051
  • Jul 30, 2015 3:43am Jul 30, 2015 3:43am
now resistance waiting GDP from USA
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  • #8,052
  • Jul 30, 2015 6:17am Jul 30, 2015 6:17am
We are at monthly double top with a reversal pattern on the daily.
If we close the daily below the black, then we prob heading towards 1 or both of the blues for a retest before heading higher I think
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #8,053
  • Jul 30, 2015 6:21am Jul 30, 2015 6:21am
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  • #8,054
  • Jul 31, 2015 7:47am Jul 31, 2015 7:47am
Had I been sticking to my guns on my strategy, this trade would have paid me out a cool 80+ pips in 15 minutes. Oh well, sometimes you end up wearing your skirt to work....

But a 38 isn't too shabby
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  • #8,055
  • Jul 31, 2015 2:12pm Jul 31, 2015 2:12pm
Glad I held my long today through that nervous bit of drawdown. WTI sitting on recent lows into the weekend. A break of these lows will send us back testing multi year lows in the low 40's and then say goodbye to 1.30 for awhile. We'll be at 1.35 very soon with the last rate cut from the BOC to .25%. Enjoy the weekend all.
Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.
  • #8,056
  • Jul 31, 2015 2:39pm Jul 31, 2015 2:39pm
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Interesting levels.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #8,057
  • Aug 1, 2015 7:03am Aug 1, 2015 7:03am
Quoting Ill-b-back
We are at monthly double top with a reversal pattern on the daily. If we close the daily below the black, then we prob heading towards 1 or both of the blues for a retest before heading higher I think {image} {image}
Or maybe just pump up north off the channel retest eh...
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #8,058
  • Edited 6:01am Aug 2, 2015 5:40am | Edited 6:01am
While running through my charts I found this pair to be standing exactly on an extremely interesting point, so I went into a deep analysis on the daily chart and thought I would share it here for whoever it concerns...
Unlike the current price of this pair, this post will be boring, you've been warned!

Everything about this chart is strongly bearish and suggesting an immediate reversal, except for one thing that suggests a burst through resistance and getting into a new land that this pair didn't visit in ~8 years..

Bearish probabilities:
(1) A near to perfect bearish butterfly created over the span of ~93 trading sessions, all the retracement values of this butterfly are 98% meeting their ideal values, except for one retracement only, AD/XA is ~89% of it's ideal value, which is still pretty high in my view.
(2) The current price is exactly on a historic resistance since Oct-2008. 31-Jul closure was actually ~30 pips higher than the high of Oct08, but what are 30 pips compared to 8 years! This resistance was created on 2004, and got tested 4 times between Oct-08 and Mar-09, then got tested again on 24-Jul-15, a touch that resulted in completing the butterfly pattern with a bearish pin-candle.. And here we are, a pullback to that point lead the pair to be standing right on that point of resistance.
(3) 100SMA(yellow) is getting ready to cut through 150SMA(green) towards the south.

Bullish probabilities:
(1) Back to back bullish divergence of PA and the standard 533stoch, the first one gave momentum to 9 sessions with a total of ~450 pips, that perfectly completed the D point of the bearish butterfly. The retracement of that move resulted in another bullish divergence, that already gave momentum to only 2 sessions (so far).
(2) A ~160 pip strong bullish candle(31-Jul) that closed right on the historical resistance.

So can that bullish divergence + strong closure of the week, be strong enough to break through everything else that screams a strong bearish move ? personally, I think the bearish probability is a lot higher than the bullish one, so I'll trade it that way!

This analysis is 100% technical, I didn't take into consideration any fundamental analysis... hopefully someone can share his fundamental view ?

Good luck!
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  • #8,059
  • Aug 2, 2015 2:26pm Aug 2, 2015 2:26pm
AkMaLiTo,

Correct me if I am wrong but I would class the Stochastic divergence as bearish as it is making lower highs and lows while PA is making higher highs and lows. In my opinion this adds to the Bearish argument that the trend may be about to change direction at least in the short term.
Indentify > Plan > Accept > Execute
  • #8,060
  • Aug 2, 2015 5:28pm Aug 2, 2015 5:28pm
Quoting AkMaLiTo
While running through my charts I found this pair to be standing exactly on an extremely interesting point, so I went into a deep analysis on the daily chart and thought I would share it here for whoever it concerns... Unlike the current price of this pair, this post will be boring, you've been warned! Everything about this chart is strongly bearish and suggesting an immediate reversal, except for one thing that suggests a burst through resistance and getting into a new land that this pair didn't visit in ~8 years.. Bearish probabilities: (1) A...
To simplfy your analyses just look at Oil chart.If oil goes up then UC will come down and opposite true.Oil is getting crashed because OPEC refused to cut production and USD is getting stronger as nearer we are getting to Sept.
Weather there will be interest rate hike or not does not matter up to Sept 16 because market acts bullish which assumes its a big probability..
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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