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EURUSD

  • #1,014,621
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:05pm Jul 29, 2015 3:05pm
H&S working on EG
  • #1,014,622
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:06pm Jul 29, 2015 3:06pm
bought usdchf
rr40
  • #1,014,623
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:14pm Jul 29, 2015 3:14pm
I am not much understanding why no rate hike brought the dollar up , shouldn't have been the opposite ?

welcome any explanation

if there is one
  • #1,014,624
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:14pm Jul 29, 2015 3:14pm
http://news.forexlive.com/!/goldman-...ember-20150729
  • #1,014,625
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:18pm Jul 29, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting Dano12
http://news.forexlive.com/!/goldman-...ember-20150729
looks lıke they want buy more us dollar
  • #1,014,626
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:21pm Jul 29, 2015 3:21pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} looks lıke they want buy more us dollar
Yhe rate hike is delaying from june to september and then december. I do ot think we will see any rate hike this year
  • #1,014,627
  • Edited 3:42pm Jul 29, 2015 3:21pm | Edited 3:42pm
Quoting Kribstreet
I am not much understanding why no rate hike brought the dollar up , shouldn't have been the opposite ? welcome any explanation if there is one
beside the markets always do what they want, here my understanding:

- no rate hike = more strong USD ( EURUSD down, USDxxx up )
- rate hike = more weak USD ( EURUSD up, USDxxx down )

EDIT: this is wrong, it's the other way round.
  • #1,014,628
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:22pm Jul 29, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting Kribstreet
I am not much understanding why no rate hike brought the dollar up , shouldn't have been the opposite ? welcome any explanation if there is one
Asian and London markets have yet to react
  • #1,014,629
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:22pm Jul 29, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting verified
{quote} beside the markets always do what they want, here my understanding: - no rate hike = more strong USD - rate hike = more weak USD

it should be the other way around I think its more divergent money policy that are playing here ?
  • #1,014,630
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:29pm Jul 29, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting Kribstreet
{quote} it should be the other way around I think its more divergent money policy that are playing here ?
confused now as well
  • #1,014,631
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:32pm Jul 29, 2015 3:32pm
The Fed has upgraded their assessment for the economy which is going to be a step forward to the rate increase, USD was effected today by those data from the FOMC.
  • #1,014,632
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:33pm Jul 29, 2015 3:33pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Yhe rate hike is delaying from june to september and then december. I do ot think we will see any rate hike this year
Time will tell
  • #1,014,633
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:36pm Jul 29, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting sherifFares
The Fed has upgraded their assessment for the economy which is going to be a step forward to the rate increase, USD was effected today by those data from the FOMC.
so no rate rike but repeated that rate hike is in scope -> $ up ?
  • #1,014,634
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:40pm Jul 29, 2015 3:40pm
Quoting Kribstreet
{quote} it should be the other way around I think its more divergent money policy that are playing here ?
Textbook answer is rate hike raises dollar, rate cut lowers dollar.

But a rate hike is not a black and white issue if raising it hurts the overall economy. If money gets too expensive it causes an economic contraction, stock market drops, consumption declines, exports decrease, price of mortgage and business loans go up, deflation because of lower demand and less money supply, unemployment rises, etc. It's a balancing act.

Fed needs to raise rates though because of the bubble. At the moment, they are out of ammo if it collapses. It's a tricky situation.

The fed news was neutral and ambiguous, but they did not take a rate hike off the table. It takes 24 hours for markets to fully react before the price lands.

Also, big money positions itself for later moves.
  • #1,014,635
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:44pm Jul 29, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting scottszone
{quote} Textbook answer is rate hike raises dollar, rate cut lowers dollar. But a rate hike is not a black and white issue if raising it hurts the overall economy. If money gets too expensive it causes an economic contraction, stock market drops, consumption declines, exports decrease, price of mortgage and business loans go up, deflation because of lower demand and less money supply, unemployment rises, etc. It's a balancing act. Fed need to raise rates though because of the bubble. At the moment, they are out of ammo if it collapses. It's a tricky...
Thank you for your explanation.

Excerpt:
When markets expect that US interest rates will be hiked, it typically strengthens the dollar. That’s because people rush to change other currencies into dollars — because they can make more money in dollar-denominated investments. The higher demand for the US currency drives its value up.
  • #1,014,636
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:45pm Jul 29, 2015 3:45pm
as some of u old timers should know that price usually retraces back to the price of the news which was all it was today since no hike or drop....the other thing is usually after news the path of least resistence is the first reaction....so dont be surprised price returns where it was or higher even at the fed release
  • #1,014,637
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:49pm Jul 29, 2015 3:49pm
AM too late to long EUR ... guess i will have to leave it alone... anyway risk exposure its still there for tomorrow's GDP .... appear to perform 2nd half of the year always
  • #1,014,638
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:51pm Jul 29, 2015 3:51pm
Guys dun be too surprise about the USD strenghten thing... its just price normalization.... As in EU , EU itself doesn't appear to have any fundamental support, some worries is still there for these Greek people..
  • #1,014,639
  • Jul 29, 2015 3:53pm Jul 29, 2015 3:53pm
i only want EUR at 1.096ish
  • #1,014,640
  • Jul 29, 2015 4:01pm Jul 29, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I know I said I wasn't going to trade after my EJ trade today (stopped just below B.E.) but this trade is what I've being waiting for as per plan (not a scalp). Re-entered my short with broken rising TL. I am expecting FOMC to be a non event and if anything slightly hawkish. {image}
Still in trade. Will leave open, imo momentum should carry this lower past the 1.096x support. Will watch the 200ma however and if it starts lifting above this level before PA breaks below may look to close. Looking for at least a touch on the MA however.
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