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  • #1,014,301
  • Jul 29, 2015 6:56am Jul 29, 2015 6:56am
Fed wants the best of both worlds. They need to raise rates to taper the bubble before it pops, but want to avoid the negative consequences of dollar appreciation (this would exacerbate deflation and economic contraction).

It's a tricky move. If they get what they want, they raise rates and the euro goes up to a calculated cost/performance equilibrium. It's a contradiction, but they have the means to engineer it. Might not all happen in one day though.
  • #1,014,302
  • Jul 29, 2015 6:58am Jul 29, 2015 6:58am
Quoting fxrustyspoon
{quote} forex factory prophet= qoute oneself and cover all possible price action scenarios, and then never give any time of when the predictions will transpire. Then reserve all rights to say oops or i told you so. Haha just great entertainment for the whole family! Theatricality and deception are powerful agents to the uninitiated...but we are initiated, arent we gator? {image}
i could just tell everyone to long at 1.13xx. because its going to to 1.2. than after it dropped under 1.1209 tell everyone i was short the whole time. like you did a month back.

if you dont understand the price goes up before down and down before up.. than maybe you should be doing something else instead of luring clients to your system.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,014,303
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:02am Jul 29, 2015 7:02am
Also as I have heard you speaking about fibo, this 161% white line is quite interesting
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,014,304
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:06am Jul 29, 2015 7:06am
sold eu risk 42/42
  • #1,014,305
  • Edited 7:28am Jul 29, 2015 7:14am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting xandi
{quote} Hi pharmor, since you are in USA, do you think FEd will rise up the interes of USD? if so, obvious Eur/Usd will go down, since USD will be appreciated and because currency relation EUR/USD going down, right? do you think its more probably that happens, or the scenario FED leaving the interest unchanged? Thanks in advance
I'm not the one to ask that- as I don't consider my fundamental analysis to be up to par as some of the other members here....but here is what I've gathered from the ones I consider better fundamental analysts than myself, and my thoughts generally...

1. Surprise rate hike today - very small chance, huge move across all markets, and a knife in the heart of the EU. I'll immediately short with a large stop. This actually happened with Bernake last time they lowered the rates.

2. Hawkish tone (what many analysts are expecting), rate hikes confirmed for Sept - spike up, maybe even a wick above 1130 clearing most of my stops, and forcing me to short around 1.1140/1.1180, and the following move down. Either way- I expect it to move down. I'm just prepared for stop runs

3. Neutral or ambiguous tone (what I am expecting), chop zone in the EU, either HH or LL (personally I'm already locked in and break even for a lower low based on my own tech analysis.) and no direct trade for the news

4. Dovish tone, fear of rate hikes moved to 2016, in which the dollar will be sold off and EU thus heading higher, maybe as high as the 1.15xx over the next month.

Generally, I feel that unless rate hikes are delayed, 1.15xx and 1.2xxx is locked. Normally I'm in favor for a retest of 1.2xx- but there simply isnt time if there are rate hikes next month. Even so...in the future, I'll be shorting the 1.2xx area, even if it's 10 years away. I feel the same that 1.0xx is locked until rate hikes are implemented. Regardless, as I said, I'm already locked and loaded- and if I wasn't- the only play I would have would be to wait until 1.1140/1.1180 to short with news on my side or a low around 09xx to long.

I follow sisse in the useless thread in these situations, as I consider him a much better fundamental trader. I add my own biases where I feel they are needed. He's covered this extensively over the last month

I'm also of the opinion that too much emphasis is placed on hikes in the first place. If they hike, it'll be tiny. That's what the market is trading though, so I'll play along
  • #1,014,306
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:24am Jul 29, 2015 7:24am
Here we go. Something is coming up. Waiting for confirmation of formation
  • #1,014,307
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:26am Jul 29, 2015 7:26am
Pending short 1054. If it gets there before breaking 1022
  • #1,014,308
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:26am Jul 29, 2015 7:26am
Quoting xandi
{quote} Why you cant handle it? any pattern can happen, you must trade the bounce on the fibos and also you cantry to predict the pattern will occur, and take advantadge of that...if you hold too much the position betting everything on pattern occuring you will lost more than win, but you can find a method to take advatadge of your knowing and see that in other perspective, trading in other perspective.... you have to make your calculations from the begging of the wave, so those marked pattern can be on AB leg, which can go 38-88% of retrace of...
Nice to hear u closed all short imho 1020 must be murdered before the down movement right?
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.
  • #1,014,309
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:31am Jul 29, 2015 7:31am
Testing yesterdays low. Possible scenario at work: drive the price down, but not so far the shorts take over, let it range up and back down before Fed news, then up and retrace. This seems the most profitable move for the big money at the moment, but the market is full of surprises.
  • #1,014,310
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:32am Jul 29, 2015 7:32am
I am buying in now. I have my confirmation
  • #1,014,311
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:35am Jul 29, 2015 7:35am
Potential for 300pip bull pole here
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #1,014,312
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:35am Jul 29, 2015 7:35am
1.1040 is coming up. Thats my target
  • #1,014,313
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:36am Jul 29, 2015 7:36am
Quoting scottszone
Testing yesterdays low. Possible scenario at work: drive the price down, but not so far the shorts take over, let it range up and back down before Fed news, then up and retrace. This seems the most profitable move for the big money at the moment, but the market is full of surprises.
Up down up retrace? You must be a seer
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,014,314
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:39am Jul 29, 2015 7:39am
Quoting scottszone
Testing yesterdays low. Possible scenario at work: drive the price down, but not so far the shorts take over, let it range up and back down before Fed news, then up and retrace. This seems the most profitable move for the big money at the moment, but the market is full of surprises.
Worrying too much is not productive - unless you are positioning few hundred pips in profits then need to have plan if not this then that ....

Even scalping if you have your stop is in place your loss for being wrong is the stop or plus few due to spread widening ......

You are scaring yourself and two people talking in the head .......
  • #1,014,315
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:43am Jul 29, 2015 7:43am
oh okay, Even better. I love profits. Way passed my target.
  • #1,014,316
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:43am Jul 29, 2015 7:43am
Quoting TTromberino
{quote} Man why? Do you really think they need to trade? They have their people, who do this and if they trade sth. that would be longterm stocks...Warren Buffet Style you know

why ?

If you were Yellen knowing what you are going to say tonight , that would be million dollars in one spike with the right amount of size and knowing where that will go ...
or just no t even trading it just selling the information would be probably worth millions....
  • #1,014,317
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:44am Jul 29, 2015 7:44am
Quoting emptycube
pending short at today's low, anyhow, today my account almost got wipeout due to stupid mistake. luckily everything got sorted out thanks to big yoyo of the pair {image}

Manage to scalp. Whats wrog with the pair today. Tight sl. Lucky
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  • #1,014,318
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:44am Jul 29, 2015 7:44am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Up down up retrace? You must be a seer
Money to be made from anticipating general price directions. The s/r levels are obvious.
  • #1,014,319
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:45am Jul 29, 2015 7:45am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Worrying too much is not productive - unless you are positioning few hundred pips in profits then need to have plan if not this then that .... Even scalping if you have your stop is in place your loss for being wrong is the stop or plus few due to spread widening ...... You are scaring yourself and two people talking in the head .......
No worries, testing my intuition and watching the hidden hand. Many mistake the doctor for the patient.
  • #1,014,320
  • Jul 29, 2015 7:45am Jul 29, 2015 7:45am
kind of back at square one now ....... 1053 ..... bulls are working hard
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