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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,341
  • Edited 11:04am Jul 27, 2015 9:11am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting sisse
you will get better bang for the buck and risk in the euro and in all commodity currencies (because both sides are pulling to the same side) especially AUD and CAD.
Is that because:

(a) AUD has recently had a rate cut, is biased down and ore/gold exports have fallen,
thus pulling the currency down, therefore it is less risk to short AUD/XXX or long XXX/AUD?

and

(b) CAD has recently had a rate cut, is biased down and oil exports have fallen,
thus pulling the currency down, therefore it is less risk to short CAD/XXX or long XXX/CAD?


I'm just trying to understand the context of your comment.

Thanks.
  • #136,342
  • Jul 27, 2015 9:17am Jul 27, 2015 9:17am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I don't think anything really fundamental is in play in the euro until the FOMC (via dollar). All the major moves across the board are coming first from equites. Via China which its getting scary and via US Equities preemptive FED play. And second from commodities. Oil especially via China and Oil inherit fundamentals (Iran). Gold also getting crushed also via the preemptive FED play. Basically euro is just moving as collateral (pure measured technicals) of the rest of the board. However, it will take front line with the FED later this week...
it is a bigger us$ dip after all ! sell the rumour ..buy the fact ..maybe ..but a 300 pips rally is not nothing !

hoom
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,343
  • Jul 27, 2015 1:18pm Jul 27, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} it is a bigger us$ dip after all ! sell the rumour ..buy the fact ..maybe ..but a 300 pips rally is not nothing ! hoom
I see where are you coming from, but you need to put it in context of what we have been talking about:

  1. We are talking about riding a potential mid term swing !!! to parity and below.

Quoting sisse
{---> Th second and most important one, is the mid term leg to parity that we have been discussing for quite a while now. Basically refer to the RTM (rate mode trading back posts) mid term swing. In the case of the euro, it's potentially 1.144x ...it could extend as high as 1.157x and max extension 1.174x...but is pretty much dying with a break down below 1.08xx plus there is no time for the rally if FED hikes in 2 months !!!!) ---> to 0.96xx with...
Usually we have 1 or max 2 mid term legs a YEAR !!! (sometimes 0). Riding a mid term wave requires that you see a bit beyond the usually short term swing we discuss here.

----> More importantly when you have an EARLY and CHEAP TICKET for the ride (form the 1.12xx handle and some [not me] even from the 1.14xx handle) you need to learn how to ride the pig. You cannot flop on the early "chop" before the break even take place (thats why its a cheap ticket). May I remind you that we moved nearly 600 ticks down from the highs already and a 50% retrace before a potential mid term swing of +2000 ticks is just "NOTHING"

 

  1. Second and also important don't forget that we have been riding in parallel the usual short term swing and its pretty much in homerun mode (only final extension 1.073x left (check hathor conversation for details on that leg)

Here from July 16th ....

Quoting sisse
{quote} ...chin chin chin ... finally taking 1.088x swing target, only one final (1.073x) target left from the short term swing 1.124x .... In happy mode here as the rest is just a homerun ...
----> Basically there is no point in clearing anything when you have no risk and a potential reward of the biggest leg of the year. Not unless the actual trigger (FOMC) take place.

Now after the fact that euro has retraced nearly 300 ticks as you said, If you ask me in the next 100 times if I would take the current retrace given the same TA and FA? I can guarantee my answer is: ABSOLUTELY NO !!!.

Sometimes an early mid term swing never come back, sometimes it does, but with a free cheap ticket for the ride of the year with nothing to loss in the worst case scenario and with only hours to the actual trigger (good or bad) it will be idiotic to chicken out for a few ticks....

...we'll see how it goes. For now as expected before the NY open, US equities finding foot at the opening range and the rest of board entered in a comatose session ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,344
  • Jul 27, 2015 1:40pm Jul 27, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting dasilva
{quote} Is that because: (a) AUD has recently had a rate cut, is biased down and ore/gold exports have fallen, thus pulling the currency down, therefore it is less risk to short AUD/XXX or long XXX/AUD? and (b) CAD has recently had a rate cut, is biased down and oil exports have fallen, thus pulling the currency down, therefore it is less risk to short CAD/XXX or long XXX/CAD? I'm just trying to understand the context of your comment. Thanks.
Yes. Keep it simple with that analysis. Why complicate life trading GU or UJ right now (a mini shout to Tom here) instead of AUD and CAD. They were/are no brainers the best Fx instruments to ride the next wave. I hope you caught some ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,345
  • Jul 27, 2015 2:19pm Jul 27, 2015 2:19pm
Understood.
Thanks Sisse.
  • #136,346
  • Jul 27, 2015 3:08pm Jul 27, 2015 3:08pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
Strong follow through after the direct threat weekly close at 1.098. 1.053 1.1053 and 1.017 1.1017 are tradeable intraday levels on the retrace but I can't quite pin down resistance so just tracking the highs for a fresh intraday reference.
1.1053 is in play

Just a quick update about R or levels to track for the close. It's that old level 1.1096 in play with price well contained and absolutely likely to hold any overshoot (if) it moves to 1.1140/50 pending further info. Clearing most intraday targets here and waiting for the close.
  • #136,347
  • Jul 27, 2015 4:06pm Jul 27, 2015 4:06pm
..and surprise surprise ....we rolled 1.108x ...with equites barely finding foot and commodities (OIL especially) on the brink of the abysm ...

Markets entering in short term swing "choose your poison time" from the European opening until the FOMC. The big ? is China ... eyes on the Asian sessions as China is starting to get out of control ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,348
  • Jul 27, 2015 5:59pm Jul 27, 2015 5:59pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I see where are you coming from, but you need to put it in context of what we have been talking about: We are talking about riding a potential mid term swing !!! to parity and below. {quote} Usually we have 1 or max 2 mid term legs a YEAR !!! (sometimes 0). Riding a mid term wave requires that you see a bit beyond the usually short term swing we discuss here. ----> More importantly when you have an EARLY and CHEAP TICKET for the ride (form the 1.12xx handle and some [not me] even from the 1.14xx handle) you need to learn how to ride the...
oh ..excuse my manners ..I should ve quoted that one ! anyway ..am fully in sync with your outlook mate ..it's just that I can't get used to the market behaviour before major swings after taking what you call "cheap ticket" makes you confused & in a hurry with time... institutional/banks scale is different from us common mortals ...patience is a vertue in the big scale of things ... you made your point and I fully agree with you..one more thing China shadow is growing darker.. Anyway GL for all swing riders around .

hoom
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #136,349
  • Jul 27, 2015 10:08pm Jul 27, 2015 10:08pm
Hi: Do you mind sharing your average holding time for positions? Do you trade intraday?
Quoting sisse
{quote} I see where are you coming from, but you need to put it in context of what we have been talking about: We are talking about riding a potential mid term swing !!! to parity and below. {quote} Usually we have 1 or max 2 mid term legs a YEAR !!! (sometimes 0). Riding a mid term wave requires that you see a bit nothing to loss in the worst case scenario and with only hours to the actual trigger (good or bad) it will be idiotic to chicken out for a few ticks.... ...we'll see how it goes. For now as expected before the NY open, US equities finding...
  • #136,350
  • Edited 3:04am Jul 28, 2015 2:20am | Edited 3:04am
Quoting sisse
..and surprise surprise ....we rolled 1.108x ...with equites barely finding foot and commodities (OIL especially) on the brink of the abysm ... Markets entering in short term swing "choose your poison time" from the European opening until the FOMC. The big ? is China ... eyes on the Asian sessions as China is starting to get out of control ... sisse
Hi sisse,
Did you mean today's European opening or tomorrow's?
I would think of tomorrow's as common sense, do you agree?
Thanks
  • #136,351
  • Jul 28, 2015 3:05am Jul 28, 2015 3:05am
Quoting ws121
{quote} Hi sisse, Did you mean today's European opening or tomorow's?
lol mate .... yes from today's opening...

------ ------- ------ ------ -----

All cards on the table for the dollar (euro) again in the last few weeks a double new short swing & mid term play for tomorrow FED. This time with fear (via Greece) cleared and with all key markets with maps cleared in their launching platform for a momentum leg.

Without an unexpected move, there is no much to see in the upcoming sessions. Next and final report pre FOMC comes from Consumer Confidence that will kill the day after the NY opening range.... All set for a key FOMC W/M roll combo...

For the rest of the session, only Cable with some interest play via GDP numbers (Lots of noise of a miss expectations in GDP...). Whatever the case, a big miss will align Cable (will unlock a potential test 1.50xx via dollar) with the rest of the FX board leaving Dollar in full control for the moves, anything else is just extend ended chop zone on the race of who hikes first between FED and BOE so nothing to see there ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,352
  • Jul 28, 2015 4:48am Jul 28, 2015 4:48am
Sisse:

..." All set for a key FOMC W/M roll combo"....

Please explain, if you don't mind.
  • #136,353
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:05am Jul 28, 2015 5:05am
Quoting FxMaximus
Sisse: ..." All set for a key FOMC W/M roll combo".... Please explain, if you don't mind.
Tomorrow FOMC
and 2 days later
Weekly and Monthly Roll.
  • #136,354
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:13am Jul 28, 2015 5:13am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Tomorrow FOMC and 2 days later Weekly and Monthly Roll.
Ahhh. LOL.. I was thinking of some "W" / "M" waveform or something... ok.

Thanks.
  • #136,355
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:14am Jul 28, 2015 5:14am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Tomorrow FOMC and 2 days later Weekly and Monthly Roll.
to add to this:

all these elements together means it's going to be a "key" (=very important/decisive) moment with possibly a lot of volatility and impulsive moves in the currency.

I'm curious if they are going to announce something none of us expected hahahah.
  • #136,356
  • Jul 28, 2015 5:24am Jul 28, 2015 5:24am
1129 was close enough to 1144 for me. I'm buckled in tight and set BE. Good luck tomorrow 'gents
  • #136,357
  • Jul 28, 2015 6:47am Jul 28, 2015 6:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
1129 was close enough to 1144 for me. I'm buckled in tight and set BE. Good luck tomorrow 'gents


1116 for me. (ladies and gents!)
  • #136,358
  • Jul 28, 2015 6:59am Jul 28, 2015 6:59am
Quoting MissPips
{quote}[/b][/color] 1116 for me. (ladies and gents!)
Goddesses & 'gents *
  • #136,359
  • Jul 28, 2015 7:23am Jul 28, 2015 7:23am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Goddesses & 'gents *
Ah, yes, that does have a nice ring to it. (I wonder if Twee would make an exception in my case and let me change my username to 4xGoddess.)
  • #136,360
  • Jul 28, 2015 7:27am Jul 28, 2015 7:27am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Ah, yes, that does have a nice ring to it. (I wonder if Twee would make an exception in my case and let me change my username to 4xGoddess.)
Depends on what you give him in return I imagine
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