The Really Useless Thread | Page 6801 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,001
  • Jul 6, 2015 12:03pm Jul 6, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Agree with that buy signal and the number going forward, unfortunately the direct risk move (also 122 on the Yen) was all about those playing the event and tracking it closely so I personally missed the play. 1.1096 again trackable intraday and in play with mild correlated dollar index support at 96.25. There's no real momentum for the dollar (last NFP was slightly below par.) but with Euro risk in the background the fade doesn't look too bad. I'd like to think there's no reason for the ECB to be standing on the bid like they...
We're back to those same levels again after the intraday fade dug up support at 1.10. Let's see how they'll play out for the close. A break opens up 1170/85/ 95.65 before another intraday leg down (that stays contained above 1.099.) That needs to happen soon or I'm clearing that scenario if it doesn't pan out relatively fast.
  • #136,002
  • Jul 6, 2015 2:23pm Jul 6, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting egkid
1.1135 point on the cliff
seems i miss something i was need this point wounder if still in play for tomorrow
Today like circus up and down not easy day
Inserted Video
  • #136,003
  • Jul 6, 2015 2:27pm Jul 6, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
New negosiations will find place. Never ending story this http://cyprus-mail.com/2015/07/06/gr...frances-sapin/
seems that way. last thing i remember was dragis statement about missing imf payment meant no ecb help. its down to ecb/dragis credibility now. it once was 'whatever it takes.." now thats getting muddy. now lets see if they do, "whatever it takes," italy etc. will want the same deal.

now "whatever it takes" may be illegal. so a new vote from members, and possibly those members people, may be needed. if so, that will take many months along with votes.

pull up a chair..the market may not wait so long. if the ecb didnt have major problems. we wouldn't need to talk about them.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #136,004
  • Jul 6, 2015 2:41pm Jul 6, 2015 2:41pm
...a very active US session after the long weekend.


While the countdown for Greece keep ticking with the ECB flirting to pull the plug as early as tomorrow the rest of board are already setting on fire for the mid term moves already.

A few KEY major developments today (which none come from the Euro front yet):

  1. Oil got hammered (mostly via Iran and China but the cream on top come via FED hikes and Europe jitters). For those trading and/or following the dead cat bounce (Gator?) from early this year, a close this week at these levels and we will set the HIGH of the month (and Quarter) unlocking the leg to test sub $30.xx by years end.
  2. European Equities lost correlation with the euro for the first time since May signalling the end of the current wave is near while US equities are comfortably sit in the perfect place for first hikes (FOMC minutes coming for an early start)
  3. Bond and Gold sent a finger to the Greece referendum and stay pretty much constrain and ready to roll for hikes. Gold is particularly interesting because was the only one that shaked out the risk knee jerk reaction and is sitting in IMMINENT break down with the slightest wind ...

Euro bulls are starting to cough a lot waiting for the next few hours (German/French tweet any minute) and tomorrow key development with all eyes on the ECB pulling the trigger on Greece (its not going to be nice so for the sake of the Greek people I hope it doesn't happen as there will be blood ...literally ...if people enter in panic when there is no more money in the banks).

Euro is running of time very fast for a last farewell rally this year. All markets are in boiling point for FED hike moves and Greece on the middle is only delaying the moves and it will only add fuel to the legs if the drama becomes panic...

For now tracking closely the euro with Tweet/drama sessions expected until the KEY FOMCon Wednesday with same levels and trades....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,005
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:58am Jul 7, 2015 2:58am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} We're back to those same levels again after the intraday fade dug up support at 1.10. Let's see how they'll play out for the close. A break opens up 1170/85/ 95.65 before another intraday leg down (that stays contained above 1.099.) That needs to happen soon or I'm clearing that scenario if it doesn't pan out relatively fast.

Well, they're holding easily enough so as long as that happens we're either aligning for a test of major levels on the dollar or offered another buy the lows range play. If we test major levels on the dollar, which coincide with major commodity support we just get a deeper leg down while the range play is shallower.

Let us see how it goes. Still the idea (which is fading with time.) of the retracement leg; quick break of 105 then 109 and a test of 118 but that looks increasingly difficult and would take longer than I'd like from these levels. Otherwise, I've got a range play at 1.097 (97 on the dollar index.) or a deep breach down if we get the major dollar test (97.40.) where 1.089 comes into play.
  • #136,006
  • Jul 7, 2015 3:59am Jul 7, 2015 3:59am
Strong opening range and we could clear the last 2 pending conversation in this thread if we get a break.....

Imminent break triggered in the euro for 1.073x final short term swing target (with soft intermediate on the low of the handle ) and more importantly to the mid term leg to parity (tomorrow FOMC minutes is the trigger/confirmation). Clearing all protection to the long side here from the weekend and topping up shorts on the break down.

​A break below the 1.08xx handle with W close will also SET the HIGH of the month and very early the high of Quarter as discussed on the M roll....

No break, no shake so until then not much to do with FOMC minutes as the real potential trigger and Greece drama as secondary noise (until and if it becomes PANIC).

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,007
  • Edited 5:09am Jul 7, 2015 4:57am | Edited 5:09am
Uhh...than I should not listen to my signals?
It says buy under 1.1
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,008
  • Jul 7, 2015 10:34am Jul 7, 2015 10:34am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Well, they're holding easily enough so as long as that happens we're either aligning for a test of major levels on the dollar or offered another buy the lows range play. If we test major levels on the dollar, which coincide with major commodity support we just get a deeper leg down while the range play is shallower. Let us see how it goes. Still the idea (which is fading with time.) of the retracement leg; quick break of 105 then 109 and a test of 118 but that looks increasingly difficult and would take longer than I'd like from...
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Otherwise, I've got a range play at 1.097 (97 on the dollar index.) or a deep breach down if we get the major dollar test (97.40.) where 1.089 comes into play.
Not easy to calculate new entries for the intraday break of 097 if you weren't already in from yesterdays highs or had the insight to play off 1050 with the limited time on offer. I also miscalculated the corresponding number for major dollar index resistance on the pair which is 1.092 (89 only for the overshoot I suppose.)

Interesting day in progress. Risk averse with a deep breach of key levels in commodities and loads of action and movement in some of the currencies. We're at the perfect place on the charts for a good FOMC shakeup but knowing those saps the content is likely to be less than inspiring...
  • #136,009
  • Jul 7, 2015 1:19pm Jul 7, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting sisse
Strong opening range and we could clear the last 2 pending conversation in this thread if we get a break..... Imminent break triggered in the euro for 1.073x final short term swing target (with soft intermediate on the low of the handle [check] ) and more importantly to the mid term leg to parity (tomorrow FOMC minutes is the trigger/confirmation). ....GL all sisse
AS expected we tested the low of the handle (not low enough to get me filled ...damn) and Euro hanging on by a thread to break down but we still held intraday and now it can be save by the bell (literally).

... tracking 1.096x for the roll.... nothing to do, same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,010
  • Jul 7, 2015 1:27pm Jul 7, 2015 1:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} AS expected we tested the low of the handle (not low enough to get me filled ...damn) and Euro hanging on by a thread to break down but we still held intraday and now it can be save by the bell (literally). ... tracking 1.096x for the roll.... nothing to do, same levels, same trades, same all... sisse
So, are you looking higher in the short term? if so, where to? 1.111x, 1.12xx, whats your flavor?
  • #136,011
  • Jul 7, 2015 1:36pm Jul 7, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} AS expected we tested the low of the handle (not low enough to get me filled ...damn) and Euro hanging on by a thread to break down but we still held intraday and now it can be save by the bell (literally). ... tracking 1.096x for the roll.... nothing to do, same levels, same trades, same all... sisse
Hey Sisse, just curious, when your short gets filled, are you aiming at 1.07XX as TP1 and then parity TP2 or are you using a different approach to targets?
  • #136,012
  • Jul 7, 2015 1:36pm Jul 7, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} So, are you looking higher in the short term? if so, where to? 1.111x, 1.12xx, whats your flavor?
The opposite mate .... we are talking about the current final target in the short term swing to 1.073x (1.098x was cleared on the opening this week) and the start of mid term leg to parity (0.96xx)...The low of the 1.09xx was/is a partial on the micro intraday leg ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,013
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:00pm Jul 7, 2015 2:00pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} The opposite mate .... we are talking about the current final target in the short term swing to 1.073x (1.098x was cleared on the opening this week) and the start of mid term leg to parity (0.96xx)...The low of the 1.09xx was/is a partial on the micro intraday leg .... sisse
I'm on the same page, looking 'forward' to parity, its just that i didn't give a thought that we all operate differently. When you said you missed a fill I was under the impression it was a buy to capitalize on a retracement
  • #136,014
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:01pm Jul 7, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} AS expected we tested the low of the handle (not low enough to get me filled ...damn)
Sisse, not enough to get filled your buy limit or your sell stop?
  • #136,015
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:01pm Jul 7, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Hey Sisse, just curious, when your short gets filled, are you aiming at 1.07XX as TP1 and then parity TP2 or are you using a different approach to targets?
ok no no don't get confused ... we have been disucssing 2 different legs since a few weeks now.

---> One is current short term swing (days to weeks). You can track the back posts in th thread to make sense of the flow. If you don't, just shoot me a line with your comments. "Long story short" (no pun intended ) 1.124x ---> 1..073x is the swing with intermediate stop 1.098x.

---> Th second and most important one, is the mid term leg to parity that we have been discussing for quite a while now. Basically refer to the RTM (rate mode trading back posts) mid term swing.

In the case of the euro, it's potentially 1.144x (but its not settle this high yet see our discussion with HATHOR...it could extend as high as 1.157x and max extension 1.174x...but is pretty much dying with a break down below 1.08xx plus there is no time for the rally if FED hikes in 2 months !!!!) ---> to 0.96xx with a bunch of mid term targets in between (that you could play in short term swings ...) 1.066x, 1.044x (the yearly lows) and 1.017x before reaching parity...


---> Finally, since the Greek drama i have been updating the micro legs (intraday flows). Check the post on the last W roll for reference. After triggering the imminent break down the leg was 1.098x -> with final target 1.073x (same as the short term swing but its within reach intraday on a break) and intermediate target at "the low of the 1.09xx handle" (this leg one was [check] but market didn't fill/reach my PT order)...

Now tracking 1.096x for the roll as it will affect all the plays above ... I hope it helps

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,016
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:34pm Jul 7, 2015 2:34pm
...all weak hands cleaned in a very strong closing range with stocks on fire .... rumours and more rumours of CB clearing as Greek deal is settled ...but whatever the case ...memorable recover in a fraction of a session... No softs hands now in the euro...

UBER important roll today, momentum leg coming if we fail to take 1.104x today ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,017
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:40pm Jul 7, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting sisse
...all weak hands cleaned
way to hang it out there on the parity call, I am looking for a new telenovela to get into, current one so stale, omg, bring back the Fed heads and make them dance, anything but Greek drama, I'm serious, I will give up and start mowing yards for extra cash if it doesn't end soon....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,018
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:44pm Jul 7, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting sisse
...all weak hands cleaned in a very strong closing range with stocks on fire .... rumours and more rumours of CB clearing as Greek deal is settled ...but whatever the case ...memorable recover in a fraction of a session... No softs hands now in the euro... UBER important roll today, momentum leg coming if we fail to take 1.104x today .... sisse
Geez, what a move and what a day. Stocks on fire and oil holding the breach and suddenly dollar is on the back-foot. Tomorrow should be fun. Let's see where we close at.
  • #136,019
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:51pm Jul 7, 2015 2:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} way to hang it out there on the parity call, I am looking for a new telenovela to get into, current one so stale, omg, bring back the Fed heads and make them dance, anything but Greek drama, I'm serious, I will give up and start mowing yards for extra cash if it doesn't end soon....
If the current mini clean intraday sweep across all major markets IS what I think it IS... I honestly think only a "Miracle" tomorrow with the FOMC or some unexpected externality will avoid the start of the leg to parity now (classical [mini]death cat bounce ???) .

1.104x holding the FOMC minutes and we have pretty much the High of the this month and Quarter Set in euro and more importantly a long term and mid term Low in the Dollar set in place.

It has been quite a while since we have daily close plays but today loading time in a few instruments with the close/rolls...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,020
  • Jul 7, 2015 3:17pm Jul 7, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting sisse
Quoting hathor
{quote} An other technical pattern, which can support our view: (Even if current pattern is not perfect and even if it fails, it can also support a bounce ('try') from current levels) {image}
---> From a purely Chart point of view T2 could finally be in play with the right NFP and with extra fuel from Greece if the referendum is clear it. However, can you spot the potential TA problem and early alert?
Quote
---> From a FA point of view, a truncated final wave is in play with the right NFP (via hikes) and to complete the leg of Greece defaulting (NOT the KNEE jerk reaction move but the proper sustainable move down). ...

Hathor, probably the last chart update in this conversation. After today strong and key moves and with Greece referendum out of the table ...

Chart update.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: update3.png Size: 186 KB


Prolly for the last time: Choose you poison time... I already chose mine

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
40 traders viewing now