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  • #135,921
  • Jul 3, 2015 2:31am Jul 3, 2015 2:31am
Here we go for the last session of the week. Expecting comatose markets after the opening range and round of news.

1.114x to complete the final NFP target play and will go again for another Weekend drama in Greece.... which is the only and key level to track for the roll today.

A positive outcome from Greece and we'll have a "reverso" swing in play to set the high of this Quarter for a farewell relief rally in the euro before hikes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,922
  • Jul 3, 2015 5:23am Jul 3, 2015 5:23am
Quoting sisse
Here we go for the last session of the week. Expecting comatose markets after the opening range and round of news. 1.114x to complete the final NFP target play and will go again for another Weekend drama in Greece.... which is the only and key level to track for the roll today. A positive outcome from Greece and we'll have a "reverso" swing in play to set the high of this Quarter for a farewell relief rally in the euro before hikes... sisse
Hi Sisse, Do you think that Euro will break 1.146x if there is a positive outcome from Greece?
  • #135,923
  • Jul 3, 2015 8:33am Jul 3, 2015 8:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} There are 2 main pending topics open for me in this thread. One is the confirmation of the start of the mid term wave to parity [coming soon] and the other is this pending chart update which relates to the last short term swing(s) in play before that mid term wave. Sisse never leaves a pending trading conversation open so this chart update is for Hathor that have been closely tracking it, sometimes trading it and some other time doubting it since Mid May. ---> From a purely Chart point of view T2 could finally be in play with the right NFP...
Hi Sisse!

First: It's a pleasure to be a part of your pending conversation.
Second: I agree with you.
Still have buy signals on every higher time frames:

- Intraday signals:
H4: Buy signal at 1.104xx

- Higher TF signals
Daily: Buy signal at 1.120xx
Weekly: Buy signal at 1.099xx
Monthly: Buy signal at 1.073xx

Need at least a Daily sell signal before I'm thinking of any parity.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,924
  • Jul 3, 2015 9:15am Jul 3, 2015 9:15am
Quoting sisse
Here we go for the last session of the week. Expecting comatose markets after the opening range and round of news. 1.114x to complete the final NFP target play and will go again for another Weekend drama in Greece.... which is the only and key level to track for the roll today. A positive outcome from Greece and we'll have a "reverso" swing in play to set the high of this Quarter for a farewell relief rally in the euro before hikes... sisse
Polls on the referendum appear to be 50/50 (http://newsletters.briefs.bloomberg....-happening-now)
what happens if the outcome is actually 50/50 or if one side wins by 1-2%, will the referendum still be considered and conclusive?
Thanks
  • #135,925
  • Edited 10:08am Jul 3, 2015 9:37am | Edited 10:08am
As expected a pretty comatose day with Europe in standby cause of Greece and US on a extended summer weekend.

We couldn't break down this week even with Greece defaulting and the very deep gap was quickly filled. We are back for a consecutive weekend of drama.

 

  1. After the slightly miss in NFP and given the circumstances (like last Friday) and for the 3rd time in 6 weeks I am rolling back my short term outlook from "SELL" to "NEUTRAL" until the risk play weekend is cleared.

  1. I am clearing remaining intraday short positions from 1.124x before final targets (we wont go anywhere today). However, this weekend (and for those who have asked in here or PM) I am actually playing the risk event with a "pseudo" spot strangle (1.124x ---> 1.107x) for a volatility break play on Greece.

    1. For those familiar with options they will grab the idea behind. For those who don't, it's basically leaving the mid term swing shorts open but hedged with the intraday longs from the NFP play [I am toping up the matching size before the close today) that haven't been clear yet.....
    2. This is a very unique and advanced trade and is only open for the WEEKEND risk event because the odds of a volatility breakout and is not meant to be trade if you don't know exactly what you are doing (and especially if you don't have enough room from the short side (at least 1.122x but nothing below...)

I personally think the weekend is a BIG ???? in play. I don't have a clue what will be the outcome of it (its too close to call anything). But fundamentally and technically (short term given the levels) both Grexit & panic or relief & rally are both in play....

Nothing else to do after London goes home but letting the dice roll ...same levels, new trades and one more time Greek drama in control for a knee jerk reaction ....

GL all, especially to the Greek people. I hope you don't shoot yourself in the foot ...


Quoting hathor
..... Need at least a Daily sell signal before I'm thinking of any parity.
Yeap agree. Gapping up 1.114x unlock one more time the T2 play ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,926
  • Jul 3, 2015 1:43pm Jul 3, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting sisse
I am actually playing the risk event with a "pseudo" spot strangle (1.124x ---> 1.107x) for a volatility break play on Greece. ....................... I personally think the weekend is a BIG ???? in play. I don't have a clue what will be the outcome of it (its too close to call anything). But fundamentally and technically (short term given the levels) both Grexit & panic or relief & rally are both in play....
There are lots of ways to play volatility expectations around "binary events" - often elections present those possibilities - the presidential election in Brazil last year comes to mind & I made a lot of money trading cheap calendars around that event. if you are trading options, you can plan trades well in advance of a binary event - if the event is scheduled, like a hard date for an election, for instance (and the election marks a real watershed event in the economic prospects for an entire nation) front month options volatilities (for the month or week around the event) will soar above back month options vols, and you can build very low risk/high profit potential time spread trades.......what's not to love about that?

in the case of Greece, we have had the promise of binary events, but their arrival has been a tease. Last Monday was a market reaction to the final, clear picture that Greece is broke and can't pay off its debts to the IMF. A day before the actual "default" date. And that was all she wrote. And now we have this referendum tomorrow. What is that? A vote on a bailout scheme that has been rescinded - is now a vote of confidence on the future of the Syriza government, or even of Greek membership in the EMU? Maybe the latter are each true, but nothing is stated clearly. As usual, I just pity the common Greeks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,927
  • Jul 3, 2015 2:10pm Jul 3, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting The Fool
There are lots of ways to play volatility expectations around "binary events" - often elections present those possibilities - the presidential election in Brazil last year comes to mind
Anyway, on big volatility plays I might do options trades on the various VIX derivative products - VXX, UVXY, SVXY, VIX, etc. I won't go into that here & if any are interested I may post trades like those on the options trading thread. Around the Brazilian election last year I was playing trades On EWZ and PBR, both of which are relatively liquid.

For Greece, there is GREK, chart below - IV rank is sky high, normally not heavily traded but volume has been much higher lately. No weeklies on it, but looking at the monthlies I see options implied volatilities are higher in the front months, as one would expect with the defaults, referendum, possible Grexit, etc all crowding the near-term calendar. Looking at the July options chains, I see the iv's are skewed a bit higher for the puts - meaning the options market is anticipating more pain in the Greek stocks. So, is there a trade here, said the greedy vulture?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-03_grek1.png Size: 130 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,928
  • Jul 3, 2015 2:33pm Jul 3, 2015 2:33pm
Quoting The Fool
So, is there a trade here, said the greedy vulture?
Well, it's too late to trade the knee-jerk reaction to the referendum - most of that move will get done before the options market is open here in the US on Monday. In fact, the thing that makes the GREK trade a nice prospect - the higher front month iv's - will be eroded starting Monday as the iv's will be crashing across the board - so, it may be too late, period. That may be true for a "no" vote outcome especially, as that will crush Greek stocks a la the extreme move from last Monday & that move will be too fast to catch. However, a "yes" vote will have the opposite effect, and longer term bullish trades on GREK will likely be a good bet - we could see GREK back above $15 this Summer. The plan would be to trade "yes" on GREK early Monday before the iv's crash all the way, looking for cheap calendars:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-07-03_grek2.png Size: 53 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,929
  • Jul 3, 2015 2:54pm Jul 3, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well, it's too late to trade the knee-jerk reaction to the referendum .... - we could see GREK back above $15 this Summer. The plan would be to trade "yes" on GREK early Monday before the iv's crash all the way, looking for cheap calendars: {image}
Quality content !!!!. A pleasure to follow and read. I pretty much like the "yes" scenario.

...a big shout to newcomers and lurkers around to read and research in detail the latest posts over the weekend. It will open a lot of doors and ideas not only about trading strategies and options but in alternative ways to understand and exploit markets opportunities breaking apart from the "conventional minion-retail-indicator infested-broker oriented and mostly misleading wisdom "

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,930
  • Jul 3, 2015 3:05pm Jul 3, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting sisse
Quality content !!!!. A pleasure to follow and read. I pretty much like the "yes" scenario. ...
you know, more & more my gut is that Greece is a sideshow fading from view. I could be wrong & will be looking for volatility spikes to fade, as always. Nothing is crystal clear to me but I wouldn't be surprised to see fiber & all equities rally on a flat out Grexit. Anyway, I don't seek out these gambler trades so much anymore, prefer to trade more "normal" markets --- we have to play what is dealt, but always, no trade is a trade and often the best trade.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,931
  • Jul 3, 2015 3:20pm Jul 3, 2015 3:20pm
1.1135 point on the cliff
  • #135,932
  • Jul 3, 2015 3:26pm Jul 3, 2015 3:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} .... but I wouldn't be surprised to see fiber & all equities rally on a flat out Grexit. Anyway, I don't seek out these gambler trades so much anymore, prefer to trade more "normal" markets --- we have to play what is dealt, but always, no trade is a trade and often the best trade.
I also very much agree that markets are not only fed up with Greece but honestly wont give a dime about a Grexit. The only X factor in the short term is a political upheaval in the EU. That is a bit trickier even for the most risk taker speculator. As usual when politics and politicians start playing with fire, markets usually [over]react and short-circuit negatively.

Europe (EU/EZ) is a rather complex and delicate balance of national political and economic interests and historical issues. When you stir up the hornet's nest, things sometimes don't really work as one would expect and markets know and hate it.

In simple words, the uncertainty is coming on the potential political reaction in the EU/EZ in the mid term not in the economic impact of a Grexit. Moreover, I strongly agree that kicking out Greece (or freezing them until they turn around) from the Euro would probably do wonders mid term for equities and the Euro.

The US already moved on away from recession and is ready to start flying high (very high), most of Europe including the PIS (not Greece) have bottomed and are desperate to start catching up in the real economy the least markets want is a endless drama derailing the party.

Actually the reaction to Greece default so far has clearly show that "No trade has been the best trade" but lets see how will pan out this weekend ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,933
  • Jul 3, 2015 3:34pm Jul 3, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}

The US already moved on away from recession and is ready to start flying high (very high), most of Europe including the PIS (not Greece) have bottomed and are desperate to start catching up in the real economy the least markets want is a endless drama derailing the party.

.... sisse
BUT my chart says euro will Fly !
Am i miss something ?
  • #135,934
  • Jul 3, 2015 3:43pm Jul 3, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting sisse
The only X factor in the short term is a political upheaval in the EU.
Interesting times....a little scary....I am optimistic for the EU, though, and expect more growing pains and changes but ultimate survival. I have always thought Greece should be given a demotion, seems like that possibility has never been better. Not the end of the world for Greece & not necessarily permanent, but surely it's essential for the strength of the EU to prove that it can draw a line and hold it...well, we'll see. Good luck to Europe. Time to get the barbecue going here - have a happy 4th, all US traders.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,935
  • Jul 3, 2015 3:50pm Jul 3, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} BUT my chart says euro will Fly ! Am i miss something ?
yes ... the risk factor .

....1.114x is the only level in play for the W opening ... I think we all would love to have a rally to the 1.15xx first but we are near the bottom of the range with a risk play ...

Let see ...and GL if you are loaded...

Quoting The Fool
{quote} .... Time to get the barbecue going here - have a happy 4th, all US traders.
Enjoy mate ...we'll talk next week to check the damage (if any)
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,936
  • Jul 3, 2015 4:17pm Jul 3, 2015 4:17pm
...and that was it ... A rather bullish weekly close but intraday in neutral and still need to crack 1.114x to be align....

As last week all micro levels raised for the weekend risk play. For the opening, the wide limits are 1.081x for the W / european opening to the bottom side and 1.114x for the upside. Everything in between is the most probable opening and it will be just noise ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,937
  • Jul 3, 2015 8:57pm Jul 3, 2015 8:57pm
Quoting sisse
...a big shout to newcomers and lurkers around to read and research in detail the latest posts over the weekend.
It's always a pleasure to read your quality analysis, Sisse, and I'm glad you've decided to stay on FF a while longer. Please keep up the good work!

And The Fool's posts are giving me the urge to get back into options (the last time I tried them it was a miserable failure ). It's reassuring that people as experienced and helpful as you are (to name but two) frequent this forum, and I for one truly appreciate your unselfish advice. Thank you
You reap what you sow.
  • #135,938
  • Jul 3, 2015 9:19pm Jul 3, 2015 9:19pm
Quoting NorthTrader
And The Fool's posts are giving me the urge to get back into options (the last time I tried them it was a miserable failure ).
Feel free to stop in at the Let's Trade Options thread and follow some of the options traders there - we could use some more who are willing to post up their trades. If you are getting back into options, I recommend checking out the tastytrade and dough websites - with these kinds of resources available for free, it has never been easier to get oneself up along the difficult learning curve that options trading imposes. Cheers & Happy Trades .

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/

https://www.dough.com/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,939
  • Jul 4, 2015 3:04am Jul 4, 2015 3:04am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Feel free to stop in at the Let's Trade Options thread and follow some of the options traders there - we could use some more who are willing to post up their trades. If you are getting back into options, I recommend checking out the tastytrade and dough websites - with these kinds of resources available for free, it has never been easier to get oneself up along the difficult learning curve that options trading imposes. Cheers & Happy Trades . https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/ https://www.dough.com/
Thanks very much for the links, I didn't know of those sites. That's my bedtime reading sorted for the next few weeks
You reap what you sow.
  • #135,940
  • Jul 4, 2015 9:20pm Jul 4, 2015 9:20pm
....Happy 4 of July to all Americanos here and hope the vote will be satisfactory to the Greek people....
The Chonchy
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