EURUSD

fisrt H1 will show us

FULL CONFUSION WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVE

Last Friday, will not be remembered well by representatives of the Federal Reserve. In the afternoon it turned out that the Fed pages of the Month "hang" the June FOMC projections of economists that should be secret for 5 years from their preparation.

They are used, inter alia, the governors of the Fed (members of regional chapters have their own research teams) to formulate guidelines for the future monetary policy. Apparently the bug said one of the workers US central bank earlier this week, but the monetary authorities decided to disclose this fact until Friday afternoon.

Initially disclosed the data showed quite a strange relationship. Compared to the same members of the FOMC, the Fed economists showed much faster growth of GDP this year, but also much gentler path of interest rates. But later it turned out that in an official statement was a mistake and the expected US economic growth is much weaker.

As a result, the correct estimate of economists the US central bank show that the US economy will grow in 2015 at a rate of 1.55%, while the consensus of the members of the Fed's last meeting was between 1.8 and 2.0%. It still was received dove, as was a reduction by as much as half a percentage point compared to the March data.

In addition, the future path of interest rates compiled by the Fed's economic team assumes that at the end of 2015 years the cost of credit will amount to 0.35%, and the median expectations of the FOMC assumed 0.625. From this it follows that the Fed's economists assume virtually one rate hike, and the members of the Fed's two.

According to economists, the FOMC same pace of monetary tightening is also to be milder. They believe that interest rates will reach 1.26% at the end of 2016 which means less than one percentage point increase throughout the next year. For comparison, in June, the median members of the Fed's tightening presented up to 1.625% at the end of 2,016 years.

Basic question of course arises whether it should in any way affect the condition of the US currency? If we were in a different period, the effects would probably be small because any estimate at more than one and a half year ahead carry a big mistake.

However, we are virtually on the eve taken by the FOMC decision on the first of nearly 10 years to raise interest rates. The market is now very sensitive to all the information, and you can expect that Fed economists assuming the publication of their data, they may be closer to real estimates, than exposed to much more external members of the Federal Reserve.

This element can therefore significantly disrupt our scenario presented by the appreciation of the US currency. In addition, at least until the September publication of macroeconomic forecasts the market may have all the time "from the back of the head" leak estimates provided by economists.

it's reaction to this zone actually...
http://screencast.com/t/j6tL9Kku8

but good work on trading pivots indeed, you trading only euro?

Not looking too promising for Core Durable Goods.....the last time we had a green heading was July 2014...maybe July is the good month. Bears will need it otherwise we tap the top agian

hourly is printing a flag in preperation

sell limits if I get stopped out from these ones
1135/40/45/50 , SL 1209 :nerd:

dont comment back to me about this for a while. give it some months and even further out. its simply the germans (north emu) are about to put all the ecb members in a great depression. the south emu is already in one.. its like this. the southern emu cant afford german products w/o a job. the commodity countries are unable to afford german products w/o a job.. now you have asia (china ) less able to buy german product w/o a job. those asian countries products are getting cheaper for germany (so a job may be coming later). meanwhile the screws are just getting tighter for the emu south with any eu rise, its preventing southern jobs.. its a wtf in waiting,, and once its starts with a liquidity miss.. ecb will be unable to stop it till ground 0

well it's a little bit long to explain...
However ..
until DAX remains > 11134 (openvalue 1H) ... &&
EURUSD remains < 11113 (1H openvalue)
the condition is given (at least for me)

you put two arrows exactly where my lines are so not sure what you are trying to say

gave up on 1114?

112x/44 were the norms i took a shot at 0964 against for.. meanwhile 1135 should be one needing closes,, 1135 shouldn't be a chump. its close to the months end. if we gt this high

anyway i dont know what german stocks are doing, looking at others things. it dont seem good for them or china, all that weighs on commodity currencies. most things i see, look like a mini or more 2008 type situation. i dont know wtf ecb sees. but they and others are the smart guys.. personally i just dont see it.. and i am being extremely careful not to say the sky is falling, but give me a few hours..

take another look, my lines are on the previous swing

you should write a book.. he posted his 2 weeks ago.. what is funny is yours posted later seem to match

I couldnt ignore 1115 (on my chart) even if I wanted to. It's earned a spot with 1209 as a big red line on every EU chart I open. Along with the Yearly open/close.

I was posting that the LM was tapped for 1144 for me, which may be enough. It was enough for GBP to make a 70 pip turn. I'm ok with the sky falling, as long as I'm on the right side. Still have a pending at 1144 entry personally, I have one floating at 1080

Instead of trading 1115, I watch it for closes. Above is up, below is down. Much like 1209, but on the smaller TF

i lived in the pros and cons.. when the gipper was president.. some did well.. oil producing states were in a depression

uc almost back to todays open data in 2 mins, break or bomb? me bomb

boom, but... Nothing

Guess July is the good month for Durable goods.

looking for a possible retest of 1086ish

Well I guess durable goods order didn't want to bring EUR down, even though it was heavily in the green.

This is hilarious.

9 mins to go ad this showed
12:308mUSUSDDurable Goods Orders (Jun)33.4%3.0%-2.1%Revised from -2.2%
12:308mUSUSDDurable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Jun)30.8%0.5%-0.1%Revised from 0.0%
http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/

The world is in risk aversion mode, so ................