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  • #1,013,241
  • Edited 8:47am Jul 26, 2015 8:20am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} that drop was expected after a symmetric move has been done. each white line in the chart moved about the same distance and a retrace followed. The two most recent drop also have the same distance (two blue line), that were also symmetric drop. Notice also bounces up and down often happens in the channel marked by the two inner blue lines. if it dropped out of that channel then it would be bearish. now it is bullish. right now it is moving to the next expectation, the confluence area marked by the purple circle {image}
Love your chart ffleo. My take is that bull power is waning. The first 2 light blue lines (starting 6/4 & 6/28) went up in one blast. Then the first yellow line took a retracement in the middle to make it up. The the blue channel was broken to the bottom (bear power). Then, you appear to have missed (on this chart) an ABCD move from 1.0808-1.0969 (AB, 161 pips) & 1.0869-1.1017 (CD 148 pips). Now, your MACD is crossing bear (which since at least May 1st has meant more than 160 pips down minimum I believe), a 50% retrace of last bear move has happened, and those last 2 light blue lines are failed bull reversal swings. Now this 4 hour move was stopped short of even the 1.1032 level, which is the minimum target for any type of bull reversal swing (although I'd think 1.1084 or 1.1216 would be more likely min targets for a bull reversal).

All this to say, on 4 hour timeframe, why would bulls be buying here? Yes, I have a (very small) short position & a short bias right now.

Again, I love your charts & posts, just posting a counter thought.
defense wins championships
  • #1,013,242
  • Jul 26, 2015 10:29am Jul 26, 2015 10:29am
Quoting seemoore
{quote} Love your chart ffleo. My take is that bull power is waning. The first 2 light blue lines (starting 6/4 & 6/28) went up in one blast. Then the first yellow line took a retracement in the middle to make it up. The the blue channel was broken to the bottom (bear power). Then, you appear to have missed (on this chart) an ABCD move from 1.0808-1.0969 (AB, 161 pips) & 1.0869-1.1017 (CD 148 pips). Now, your MACD is crossing bear (which since at least May 1st has meant more than 160 pips down minimum I believe), a 50% retrace of last bear move...
or commodities etc are telling the truth and emu citizens with commodities were forced to sell enough to bounce eu.. most usd crosses down, euro up. it wouldn't be the first time due to margin/liquidity. euro up on chf, gbp as well since last week.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,013,243
  • Jul 26, 2015 11:12am Jul 26, 2015 11:12am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Progress? [=============>---75%---] ?
lol no, would rather have 2 million in real estate or land to pay for that 2 million dollar boat first
  • #1,013,244
  • Jul 26, 2015 11:36am Jul 26, 2015 11:36am
[quote=Greenspanke;8398974]
Quoting pedro319
{quote}I thought you'll post your chart on this one. quote] Sorry I forgot. I closed my short ( might be a bit early as per my alternate count) and have started longs. Np there as the end result will be same direction. The yellow counts as my alternate for lower before wave 3 (bigger 3). Let me know what you think. I might have to slow down on building longs. (looking for @ least 25L, have 4 so far.) Gracias my friend. G {image}
Hi, I will wait until this pattern on AUDUSD is complete before any longs as AUD shows considerable weakness.
Congrats on previous trades and thanks for your input
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Bfly D1.png Size: 42 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #1,013,245
  • Jul 26, 2015 12:08pm Jul 26, 2015 12:08pm
Low 1.09x's looks likely to me.

Here's why:

Fed rumoured to raise rates = USD goes up (aka buy the rumor)
Fed raises rates = USD goes up, "obviously"
Of course they don't raise rates, so that's why USD will also go up more and EUR/USD will go to my low 1.09x within next 2 months.

Now given all this sounds unbearably bullish to contrasoontrapped'tarians, we'll probably see 1.0666 as soon as .. next week or two? I'll be flip flopping position which ever way the wind is not-not blowing.

Or maybe some people just need to learn to trade so they don't have to think about all this crap (that would be me). Central banks and politicians react to markets and sentiment and demand are what drives the market (except in certain 'broken market' circumstances). Unless there is market value shifting news, it's mostly sentiment that drives things. Does it have to be that way? To be entirely truthful, I'm not sure it has, technically some central bank could be providing liquidity to the market and tell the sentiment HFT/stop runners to f off, creating an entirely socialist market where no matter what way you open order it will go to profit ... - right now they have algo that does just that except no matter what way I open order it always goes to my loss and bucket shops profit. And this is despite my very accurate forecasts of the prices on every timeframe. I'm working on my own algo that makes damn sure that when I open 1000x leveraged trade with a marketable order, tight stop and no target it flies to profit and never comes back.
  • #1,013,246
  • Jul 26, 2015 12:16pm Jul 26, 2015 12:16pm
do we have current quotes live anywhere ?
  • #1,013,247
  • Edited 2:59pm Jul 26, 2015 12:27pm | Edited 2:59pm
Ain't that pretty?
  • #1,013,248
  • Jul 26, 2015 1:06pm Jul 26, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting sERDAr
do we have current quotes live anywhere ?
xe.com
  • #1,013,249
  • Jul 26, 2015 1:13pm Jul 26, 2015 1:13pm
fxjesus....ive found when it comes to the obvious more often then not the opposite occures kind of like what happed with nzd after they cut...now i have a buy signal on it on the weekly chart
  • #1,013,250
  • Jul 26, 2015 1:24pm Jul 26, 2015 1:24pm
Quoting fxjesus
I'm working on my own algo that makes damn sure that when I open 1000x leveraged trade with a marketable order, tight stop and no target it flies to profit and never comes back.
I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a cheeseburger today.
  • #1,013,251
  • Jul 26, 2015 1:30pm Jul 26, 2015 1:30pm
Will try a short at 1.1025 - 40.........
  • #1,013,252
  • Jul 26, 2015 2:01pm Jul 26, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting fxjesus
Now given all this sounds unbearably bullish to contrasoontrapped'tarians, we'll probably see 1.0666 as soon as .. next week or two?
1.0666 in next week or two is a long time to go. Price may even go to say 1.14, then eventually drop hard to 1.0666 (like you said). By the time, will you say "i,ve told you so"?
  • #1,013,253
  • Jul 26, 2015 2:02pm Jul 26, 2015 2:02pm
http://www.efxnews.com/story/29819/t...eks-cot-report
  • #1,013,254
  • Jul 26, 2015 2:16pm Jul 26, 2015 2:16pm
for the third time last week EUR/USD closes at the open price, the market is still uncertain
  • #1,013,255
  • Jul 26, 2015 2:20pm Jul 26, 2015 2:20pm
1.09836 @ xe.com ... small gap up ..
  • #1,013,256
  • Edited 4:28pm Jul 26, 2015 2:21pm | Edited 4:28pm
Quoting Dano12
http://www.efxnews.com/story/29819/t...eks-cot-report
Last week there was highest increase in shorts since May or so. What happened, 200p up. Maybe they will make up their mind this week...
  • #1,013,257
  • Jul 26, 2015 4:14pm Jul 26, 2015 4:14pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Ain't that pretty?
Ideally we get some other pattern on smaller tf like ABCD or 3 Drives pointing to same extension + YS2.
Have a good week.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #1,013,258
  • Jul 26, 2015 4:17pm Jul 26, 2015 4:17pm
Eur will not hit again 1.1017 it seems it will go down from here and because of the FOMC on wednesday it will go more down
  • #1,013,259
  • Jul 26, 2015 4:29pm Jul 26, 2015 4:29pm
Quoting Dano12
http://www.efxnews.com/story/29819/t...eks-cot-report
Thx. I wasn't aware of that website. Useful info.
  • #1,013,260
  • Jul 26, 2015 4:32pm Jul 26, 2015 4:32pm
Quoting cspip
Will try a short at 1.1025 - 40.........
I'm looking to short @ 1.10500 ish
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