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AUD/USD

  • #91,321
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:52am Jul 23, 2015 11:52am
Quoting cheersdup
{quote} I agree with Thor that .76 is likely a retrace target, but in the short term (1-2 weeks). I am of the opinion that aussie will break .72 support in September. There are more fundamental factors that could drive aussie lower, rather than higher, in the medium term: US rate hike China -- Structural economic slowdown (further commodity weakness) China -- Equity market madness RBA -- Potential rate cuts
I broadly agree with this, but currency markets have a habit of shrugging off fundamentals. Looking at the daily, just look at that projection lower from 5th july, it just doesn't look right and undoubtedly this pair is being held down by the powers that be. I also agree with 72 being touched, but i suspect it will spike down further as the stops are hunted out. Then once all those that got excited and jumped on the long train to early are wiped out, its up we go and i suspect it will be strong and not a gradual rise
  • #91,322
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:56am Jul 23, 2015 11:56am
Quoting mrfigure
{quote} I broadly agree with this, but currency markets have a habit of shrugging off fundamentals. Looking at the daily, just look at that projection lower from 5th july, it just doesn't look right and undoubtedly this pair is being held down by the powers that be. I also agree with 72 being touched, but i suspect it will spike down further as the stops are hunted out. Then once all those that got excited and jumped on the long train to early are wiped out, its up we go and i suspect it will be strong and not a gradual rise
So on this note, MrFigure and Cheersdup, you agree with Thor in that the dollar will strengthen by early november? Or that there's at least a very good chance of reaching this level?
Prior to joining this forum I really didn't know much, but since, I've done a fair amount of research, and while I still don't understand a lot of the technical terms, I've seen historical patterns and traits that could inspire upcoming movements? but anything could happen?
  • #91,323
  • Jul 23, 2015 12:00pm Jul 23, 2015 12:00pm
Quoting SuperBlue
How the mighty have fallen http://www.theguardian.com/business/...-analysts-warn
Thanks for that link super
  • #91,324
  • Jul 23, 2015 12:30pm Jul 23, 2015 12:30pm
Hello moonhead.



Just remember there are no experts on here, rather a group of people passing opinion, some based on well researched information and unfortunately others on plain BS.

What i would say to you is ask yourself the question, what trend is currently in place with this pair ? ........and of course the trend is DOWN.

You will know when the trend reverses as it will be reflected in the price chart, but it will need a significant turn to the upside to clear out some rather important resistance levels.

Usually at these low price points i would be looking at a weekly bullish engulfing pattern to start considering a long entry, but clearly there is considerable momentum behind this bear run and so even a weekly engulfing would not be enough for entry in my own analysis.

My advice is to monitor any upswings and ascertain for yourself if the downward structure has been significantly broken, where you can comfortably convince yourself that resistance has now without doubt become support. This may well mean missing out on some long opportunities, but when this pair does turn, which it will, the opportunities to go long will be plentiful, so there is nothing lost in missing out during the transitional phase from down trend to up trend.

As to whether the turning point will be 72 or elsewhere, truth is NOBODY knows, but if you are committed to monitoring your charts, then you will be rewarded with the answer because there is one thing that will tell you the turning point.........................price.

Its probably the easiest but less talked about component of trading, which is just being there, monitoring your price chart at the time price begins to talk to you. If your there the opportunities present themselves, unfortunately for those guys and girls that have other jobs, they miss out on just 'being there'.

Don't be afraid to stick your neck out and voice your opinion, especially if you have done your research.

Therefore I will stick mine out and say that research shows 72 is the topic of conversation. If price dips below this, my thoughts are that we will hit 68 and that will more likely than not be the turning point. There is also talk that at current levels we are low enough and export income is healthy. Lets be clear, Australia is not in turmoil, far from it.

This pair will turn, just 'be there' when it happens.
  • #91,325
  • Jul 23, 2015 12:59pm Jul 23, 2015 12:59pm
A potential Aussie dollar bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 23Jul15.png Size: 61 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #91,326
  • Jul 23, 2015 1:13pm Jul 23, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting skyhok
A potential Aussie dollar bottom. {image}
This possibility makes me very happy indeed, interested to see if this develops.
How confident are you that this could/will happen?
  • #91,327
  • Jul 23, 2015 2:05pm Jul 23, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting cheersdup
{quote} I agree with Thor that .76 is likely a retrace target, but in the short term (1-2 weeks). I am of the opinion that aussie will break .72 support in September. There are more fundamental factors that could drive aussie lower, rather than higher, in the medium term: US rate hike China -- Structural economic slowdown (further commodity weakness) China -- Equity market madness RBA -- Potential rate cuts
You can add copper and iron price add to that list.
  • #91,328
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:36pm Jul 23, 2015 8:36pm
Quoting moonhead
{quote} This possibility makes me very happy indeed, interested to see if this develops. How confident are you that this could/will happen?
Long term 80%
Short term - bottoming process can be complicated 60%
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #91,329
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:42pm Jul 23, 2015 8:42pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Long term 80% Short term - bottoming process can be complicated 60%
How long is long term, and same for short? Sorry to ask such a simple question... I'm just wondering if three months down the track is considered short term or not...
  • #91,330
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:54pm Jul 23, 2015 8:54pm
Quoting moonhead
{quote} How long is long term, and same for short? Sorry to ask such a simple question... I'm just wondering if three months down the track is considered short term or not...
Very long term, sttill holding long term view as follows:
Present potential bottom could be just the wave A of a multi-year correction after the 10 year advance from 2001.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_long_term_23Jul15.png Size: 125 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD long term 5Jan15.jpg Size: 489 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #91,331
  • Jul 23, 2015 8:56pm Jul 23, 2015 8:56pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Very long term, sttill holding long term view as follows: {image} {image}
okay so long story short, you feel that it's more likely to sink further in the short term (november this year), I might get money exchanged now then, if the market is this unpredictable.
  • #91,332
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:04pm Jul 23, 2015 9:04pm
Quoting moonhead
{quote} How long is long term, and same for short? Sorry to ask such a simple question... I'm just wondering if three months down the track is considered short term or not...
Short term, up to 2-3 weeks, medium term 1-3 months, long term 3+ months... depends who you ask. The high frequency guy's short term is measured in miliseconds.

Note that AUD just cratered on weak chinese flash manufacturing pmi
  • #91,333
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:07pm Jul 23, 2015 9:07pm
Quoting cheersdup
{quote} Short term, up to 2-3 weeks, medium term 1-3 months, long term 3+ months... depends who you ask. The high frequency guy's short term is measured in miliseconds. Note that AUD just cratered on weak chinese flash manufacturing pmi

Out of interest, you're new to this conversation with me, where do you feel the aud will be at by november? at the moment it's obviously hovering between 0.73 and 0.745, where do you think it'll likely be in a few months time? I'm in this dilemma, do I exchange my aud for usd now, or do i wait and risk it...

Sorry guys I've been working all night, just come off night shift at the hospital so I'm very tired, if I'm not making sense, this is why...
  • #91,334
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:10pm Jul 23, 2015 9:10pm
Quoting moonhead
{quote} okay so long story short, you feel that it's more likely to sink further in the short term (november this year), I might get money exchanged now then, if the market is this unpredictable.
Well, bottoming process get complicated, as I post it plunged down to 0.7296, going to revise wave count, not long now.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #91,335
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:10pm Jul 23, 2015 9:10pm
Wow 100 pip score EA. Thanks China!
  • #91,336
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:17pm Jul 23, 2015 9:17pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Well, bottoming process get complicated, as I post it plunged down to 0.7296, going to revise wave count, not long now.
hey...
So now that the dollar has dipped this much, this rapidly... do you think it'll continue to sink? or will it start to rise again soon?
  • #91,337
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:32pm Jul 23, 2015 9:32pm
Hi I have just recently start trading with live account on Forex, and one my my chosen pair is AUD/USD. Based on the drop 1 hour ago, the drop us AUD/USD is probably due to the CNY major news release being worse than the forecast value. My question is, regarding this pair, does news from China usually have an impact on this particular pair? I am quite new to this currency pair
  • #91,338
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:39pm Jul 23, 2015 9:39pm
Quoting moonhead
{quote} hey... So now that the dollar has dipped this much, this rapidly... do you think it'll continue to sink? or will it start to rise again soon?
I'm not the market, I observe this market with EW. If it's requires confirmation of a reversal like a breakout of trendlines or takeout a high,etc.
Appreciate anyone can confirm it or otherwise, by other means.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #91,339
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:42pm Jul 23, 2015 9:42pm
Moonhead, are you planning to buy US dollars from a bank in Australia? and take them with you?
because if you do I think the exchange rate is not in your favour if you buy from banks, they charge a high commission.

http://www.anz.com/personal/travel-f...ncy-converter/

I think a better option is if you transfer the money, check this website, I think they have the lowest fees.

https://transferwise.com/


Sir Richard branson has invested in the company as well, it looks promising

https://transferwise.com/blog/2014-0...t-hidden-fees/
  • #91,340
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:46pm Jul 23, 2015 9:46pm
Quoting Vorex
Moonhead, are you planning to buy US dollars from a bank in Australia? and take them with you? because if you do I think the exchange rate is not in your favour if you buy from banks, they charge a high commission. http://www.anz.com/personal/travel-f...ncy-converter/ I think a better option is if you transfer the money, check this website, I think they have the lowest fees. https://transferwise.com/
so are you still buying on dips???
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