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AUD/USD

  • #91,301
  • Jul 23, 2015 1:38am Jul 23, 2015 1:38am
if support now at 0.737 then a possible 0.750+ ahead
  • #91,302
  • Jul 23, 2015 1:39am Jul 23, 2015 1:39am
there is also divergence on weekly for bulls. hope for a good upward movement soon.
  • #91,303
  • Jul 23, 2015 2:28am Jul 23, 2015 2:28am
i get long7386
And falling's just another way to fly...
  • #91,304
  • Jul 23, 2015 2:39am Jul 23, 2015 2:39am
Quoting moonhead
Hi everyone, I'm incredibly new to the whole currency trading game, but I thought I'd join a forum to ask a question. I booked a flight from Australia to the US early this year, I tend to travel there every year, but this year I'm a bit cautious about the falling dollar. I was wondering if anyone could predict where the dollar may be by November this year? I know it's a very difficult thing to predict, I was just hoping for a general range, no right or wrong answer, just some kind of gauge of where it could be? I'm just concerned that it could be...
IN my opinion if you want to buy cash AUD now its a time for november . with this sharp drop trend in monthly and weekly the price will be just at 0.7750 in first quarter of 2016 will be down up to 0.6500 its up to you when buy Aud . me just buy short now for medium term target is 7640
  • #91,305
  • Jul 23, 2015 3:56am Jul 23, 2015 3:56am
Quoting Thor33
{quote} IN my opinion if you want to buy cash AUD now its a time for november . with this sharp drop trend in monthly and weekly the price will be just at 0.7750 in first quarter of 2016 will be down up to 0.6500 its up to you when buy Aud . me just buy short now for medium term target is 7640
Hey Thor! Thanks for your response, it's actually the opposite, I'm heading to the U.S. So j need to buy US dollars with my aid.. See how we go hey.
  • #91,306
  • Jul 23, 2015 4:33am Jul 23, 2015 4:33am
if support works well enough
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  • #91,307
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:18am Jul 23, 2015 9:18am
Quoting moonhead
{quote} Hey Thor! Thanks for your response, it's actually the opposite, I'm heading to the U.S. So j need to buy US dollars with my aid.. See how we go hey.
My fault ,
you must wait for us dollar to drop against basket of other currency for hint when euro usd go on 1.25 its time for you to change your aud to usdollar . 12 cent upper from 0.7370 aud usd . 0.8500 for you to that change your aud to us dollar .
  • #91,308
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:20am Jul 23, 2015 9:20am
Quoting Thor33
{quote} My fault , you must wait for us dollar to drop against basket of other currency for hint when euro usd go on 1.25 its time for you to change your aud to usdollar . 12 cent upper from 0.7370 aud usd . 0.8500 for you to that change your aud to us dollar .
Do you think this is a possibility in the next three or so months? I'm just hoping the aud is as strong as possible against the usd. All I can see is a continual decline, though I'm not familiar with reoccurring patterns and predictions.
  • #91,309
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:35am Jul 23, 2015 9:35am
Quoting moonhead
{quote} Do you think this is a possibility in the next three or so months? I'm just hoping the aud is as strong as possible against the usd. All I can see is a continual decline, though I'm not familiar with reoccurring patterns and predictions.
I dont think that go up on in november but monthly and weekly price is under moving average 100 and 21 its hard to go up . 0.7850 is ultimate high for strong aud on Dec - ifyou been lucky us dollar getting weakafter 5 month and in last days of november you can see 85 or 87 . its up to RBA and Fed's says that rate hike not coming in 2015 . you must wait and see the events . you can now buy AUD/USD long after 5 month if you were lucky you can sell them and buy cheap dollar on december. worst case scenario is in coming months aud /usd touch 0.6300 . its all up to you
  • #91,310
  • Jul 23, 2015 9:51am Jul 23, 2015 9:51am
Quoting Thor33
{quote} I dont think that go up on in november but monthly and weekly price is under moving average 100 and 21 its hard to go up . 0.7850 is ultimate high for strong aud on Dec - ifyou been lucky us dollar getting weakafter 5 month and in last days of november you can see 85 or 87 . its up to RBA and Fed's says that rate hike not coming in 2015 . you must wait and see the events . you can now buy AUD/USD long after 5 month if you were lucky you can sell them and buy cheap dollar on december. worst case scenario is in coming months aud /usd touch...
Dang, I'm actually there from late october until late november...

It just comes down to, do I get the money out now, or do I wait and hope it goes up from here, with the risk of losing more if it continues to sink.

Really tricky stuff, quite stressful really, coming from a newbie.
  • #91,311
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:04am Jul 23, 2015 10:04am
Quoting moonhead
{quote} Dang, I'm actually there from late october until late november... It just comes down to, do I get the money out now, or do I wait and hope it goes up from here, with the risk of losing more if it continues to sink. Really tricky stuff, quite stressful really, coming from a newbie.
Its a hard i agree if your deposit money is larger than 10000 us dollar. in which price you buy on Aud / usd?
  • #91,312
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:09am Jul 23, 2015 10:09am
Quoting Thor33
{quote} Its a hard i agree if your deposit money is larger than 10000 us dollar. in which price you buy on Aud / usd?
I'm really not too sure what to expect, as repeated above, I'm really new to this so I've no idea in terms of expectations, I'm obviously just wanting the aud to be as strong as possible. The question is, is it safer to get money out now, or would it be worth waiting and seeing if it goes up.

Another question, the general consensus is that the Federal Reserve will increase rates at some point, with some saying they may increase in September this year, while others say it won't happen until the start of 2016.

If the rates are increased in september, what would this mean for the audusd relationship?
If the rates are NOT increased in september, what would this mean?
  • #91,313
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:15am Jul 23, 2015 10:15am
getting ready to drop another short
  • #91,314
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:17am Jul 23, 2015 10:17am
Quoting moonhead
{quote} I'm really not too sure what to expect, as repeated above, I'm really new to this so I've no idea in terms of expectations, I'm obviously just wanting the aud to be as strong as possible. The question is, is it safer to get money out now, or would it be worth waiting and seeing if it goes up. Another question, the general consensus is that the Federal Reserve will increase rates at some point, with some saying they may increase in September this year, while others say it won't happen until the start of 2016. If the rates are increased in...
You can risk and not to close your money there .
my opinion is rate hike not happening in 2015 , if so the impact is not a lot according to price now on 0.73 area . 200 pips on rate hike going down all currency against us dollar and 4 days later come back to original price .
  • #91,315
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:20am Jul 23, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Thor33
{quote} You can risk and not to close your money there . my opinion is rate hike not happening in 2015 , if so the impact is not a lot according to price now on 0.73 area . 200 pips on rate hike going down all currency against us dollar and 4 days later come back to original price .
so... I don't know if i'm understanding this, but you suggest that the aud/usd will remain generally around the same as what it is now, come november this year? 0.72 - 0.75 for example?
  • #91,316
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:29am Jul 23, 2015 10:29am
Quoting moonhead
{quote} so... I don't know if i'm understanding this, but you suggest that the aud/usd will remain generally around the same as what it is now, come november this year? 0.72 - 0.75 for example?
Around 0.72 - 0.77 range this year 2016 is up to RBA policy if wanted go down more touching 0.65.
  • #91,317
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:38am Jul 23, 2015 10:38am
Quoting Thor33
{quote} Around 0.72 - 0.77 range this year 2016 is up to RBA policy if wanted go down more touching 0.65.
You're awesome Thor, you've been really helpful, I really appreciate it. You've all been really helpful, probably sick of me clogging up your forum, I'm just really getting into this for some reason.

It's comforting to know that you think the dollar will sit within this range, any lower than .70 and I wouldn't be happy. But anything can happen before then. Rates increase could affect the aud and sink it further, as could the China crash... There are so many events before november that could affect anything in any way.
  • #91,318
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:42am Jul 23, 2015 10:42am
Quoting moonhead
{quote} You're awesome Thor, you've been really helpful, I really appreciate it. You've all been really helpful, probably sick of me clogging up your forum, I'm just really getting into this for some reason. It's comforting to know that you think the dollar will sit within this range, any lower than .70 and I wouldn't be happy. But anything can happen before then. Rates increase could affect the aud and sink it further, as could the China crash... There are so many events before november that could affect anything in any way.
no problem
just wait and see what happens my self buy medium term from 0.7411 take profit is 0.7630
i hope not sinking australian dollar for you moonhead .
have a good time
  • #91,319
  • Jul 23, 2015 10:49am Jul 23, 2015 10:49am
Quoting Thor33
{quote} no problem just wait and see what happens my self buy medium term from 0.7411 take profit is 0.7630 i hope not sinking australian dollar for you moonhead . have a good time
I'll keep on this board until the trip I think, as you guys seem to know a lot, and you're obviously very approachable.. Though obviously I won't post as much as I am now, I might message you directly Thor, month by month, to have a chat about what's been happening/what will happen etc... if this is okay?

Meanwhile, if anyone here has instagram, add me: Moon_head
  • #91,320
  • Jul 23, 2015 11:35am Jul 23, 2015 11:35am
Quoting Thor33
{quote} no problem just wait and see what happens my self buy medium term from 0.7411 take profit is 0.7630 i hope not sinking australian dollar for you moonhead . have a good time
I agree with Thor that .76 is likely a retrace target, but in the short term (1-2 weeks). I am of the opinion that aussie will break .72 support in September. There are more fundamental factors that could drive aussie lower, rather than higher, in the medium term:

  1. US rate hike
  2. China -- Structural economic slowdown (further commodity weakness)
  3. China -- Equity market madness
  4. RBA -- Potential rate cuts

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