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Continuation or reversal trading M15 6 replies

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Attachments: News trading discussion - continuation
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News trading discussion - continuation

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
All a good weekend.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Wednesday
4:30
07/22/15
AU Consumer Price Index GOOD
(AU CPI), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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Thoughts on "smart traders"

AU Consumer Price Index

RBA released minutes of the last meeting in the morning of Tuesday, July 21, from which we positively know that the issue of reducing the interest rate remains relevant.
The minutes indicated "further depreciation of the Australian dollar will support the economy", "the most vivid fall recorded in pair with USD, but in the overall basket of currencies decline weakly expressed."
Current interest rate corresponds to the situation and the forecasts for the future. And what is important before publication CPI: «pronounced inflationary pressures, and the income level of the historically small."
Roughly - nothing new or unusual, but against Canada and New Zealand - it seems rather "soft" in the perspective of further rate cuts.
Before us is the quarterly growth data CPI, which will point to the rate of inflation, which in turn add their "two cents" to the RBA decision. By the way, the next meeting of the Regulator is scheduled for August 4, at a meeting in July the Bank left interest rates unchanged 2%.
For the CPI you should know that the indicator is subject to delay, and the conflict is small, since the package is traditionally comprises a base and a common measure of inflation. We are interested in the basic Trimmed CPI.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Minutes of the Bank of England should be clarified

The last public appearances Mark Carney was enough drayvovym to concentrate interest rate expectations Regulator closer to the beginning in 2016.
Moreover, there were rumors that the interest rate may be raised by the end of 2015. Considering the actual inflation figures still seem a period of 2-3 quarter of 2016.
MPC will release its minutes on Wednesday, just a minute to tell us about the structure of the voting committee two weeks ago.
Pay particular attention to two things:
1. Structure of the vote with respect to the interest rate increase. According to the forecast assumes that all nine members of the committee will remain neutral, and if we get at least one vote "for" - this may support the pound.
2. The change in outlook in the minutes. We are interested in the look and the inflation forecasts GDP for 2015 and 2016.
In any case it is necessary to be careful at this time, July 22, at 11-30 increased likelihood of sufficient volatility for GBP.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.


**************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 1.6M-Barrel Drop in Crude Stocks
Published: Jul 21, 2015

By Nicole Friedman


NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to decline in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 13 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels, on average, in the week ended July 17.

Eleven analysts expect stockpiles to fall, while two expect a rise. Forecasts range from a rise of 1.5 million barrels to a drop of 3.5 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 600,000 barrels, according to analysts. Eleven analysts expect a gain, with two expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 3 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 2 million barrels. All 13 analysts expect a rise. Forecasts range from a gain of 3 million barrels to an increase of 500,000 barrels.

Refinery use is seen staying unchanged at 95.3% of capacity, based on EIA data. Two analysts expect no change, five expect a rise, four see a decline and two didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a rise of 0.5 point to a drop of 0.5 point.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the same week showed a 2.3-million-barrel increase in crude stocks, according to market sources.

Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital -2.9 0.4 2.1 -0.4
Citi Futures Perspective -2.5 1.0 2.5 0.3
Confluence Investment Management -2.0 1.5 2.0 unch
EBW AnalyticsGroup -1.5 0.75 2.5 unch
Energy Management Institute -1.5 1.0 2.6 0.3
Excel Futures -2.65 0.65 1.4 -0.5
Frost & Sullivan -1.5 -2.0 1.0 -0.5
IAF Advisors -3.5 1.0 1.5 n/a
Price Futures Group -2.0 1.0 3.0 0.5
Ritterbusch and Associates 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.3
Schneider Electric 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.2
Tradition Energy -2.5 -1.5 3.0 -0.5
Tyche Capital Advisors -1.25 0.25 2.0 n/a

AVERAGE -1.6 0.6 2.0 unch

(Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories. **************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 1.6M-Barrel Drop in Crude Stocks Published: Jul 21, 2015 By Nicole Friedman NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to decline in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal. Estimates from 13 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels, on average, in the week ended July 17. Eleven analysts expect stockpiles to fall, while two expect a rise. Forecasts range from a rise of 1.5 million barrels to a drop of 3.5 million barrels. The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 600,000 barrels, according to analysts. Eleven analysts expect a gain, with two expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 3 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels. Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 2 million barrels. All 13 analysts expect a rise. Forecasts range from a gain of 3 million barrels to an increase of 500,000 barrels. Refinery use is seen staying unchanged at 95.3% of capacity, based on EIA data. Two analysts expect no change, five expect a rise, four see a decline and two didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a rise of 0.5 point to a drop of 0.5 point. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the same week showed a 2.3-million-barrel increase in crude stocks, according to market sources. Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use Again Capital -2.9 0.4 2.1 -0.4 Citi Futures Perspective -2.5 1.0 2.5 0.3 Confluence Investment Management -2.0 1.5 2.0 unch EBW AnalyticsGroup -1.5 0.75 2.5 unch Energy Management Institute -1.5 1.0 2.6 0.3 Excel Futures -2.65 0.65 1.4 -0.5 Frost & Sullivan -1.5 -2.0 1.0 -0.5 IAF Advisors -3.5 1.0 1.5 n/a Price Futures Group -2.0 1.0 3.0 0.5 Ritterbusch and Associates 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.3 Schneider Electric 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 Tradition Energy -2.5 -1.5 3.0 -0.5 Tyche Capital Advisors -1.25 0.25 2.0 n/a AVERAGE -1.6 0.6 2.0 unch (Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)[/quote]
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Thursday
00:00
07/23/15
NZ Interest
(NZ Official Cash Rate), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
11:30
07/23/15
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
15:30
07/23/15
CA The core retail sales
(CA Core Retail Sales), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
07/23/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The Bank of England has disappointed investors?

The regulator has published disappointing for investors meeting minutes, GBP spike in indecision at the time of publication. But to blame a protocol, or participants too hurry? Yet in the report there are several mezhdustroche.
The problem is that the market has high expectations of the Bank of England, which in turn provoked a statement Mark Carney: "day rate hike is getting closer."
FOMC Minutes showed no change in the structure of voting "for / against / neutral" interest rate. Also noted in the minutes that the committee's decision "was quite easy and transparent."
Noted Greece and China as "events have saddened the world economy after a weak first quarter." The bank expects GDP growth of 0.7% in the second half of 2015.
It would seem that the information and easy to digest, but there are still a few lumps in the batch, detailed look at the text:
- Some members of the Committee are considering a rate hike, but to prevent the Greek crisis
- Some participants see the decision of the committee vote balanced, not easy, but "exactly balanced".
- Ask a question about whether the wage growth sustained and sustainable
On bowls more weight toward raising interest rates, but should be attentive to the performance of British wages and inflation.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Crude Oil
scalping
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Thoughts on "smart traders"

GB Retail Sales

Despite the unwarranted market expectations regarding the Minutes of the Bank of England, the markets do not cease to support the GBP. Texts minutes and digested, and the output of the regulator gets more "hawk" rather than "blue".
In the absence of strong news from the US, as well as the Minutes of the Bank of England would like at this time to see that wage growth in the UK has its own exhaust in the form of increased spending. So far it seems that the higher growth forecast fact cause a large market reaction rather than vice versa.
MPC members support a rate hike in the near future, and it seems that more aggressive action from them kept only Greece. If the last time we had two horses among the key MPC, which pulled the idea of ​​increasing, now we have them a "number".
Please note that the rhetoric of the United States also has the character of a hawk, Yellen says interest rate rises this year. This factor may also support the Bank of England in its decision, as somewhat mitigated the risk of excessive volatility in the British on a "wall to wall".
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Fish, not interested in the US unemployment news later today???
Quoting TerryTibbs
Fish, not interested in the US unemployment news later today???
no, my frend.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Quoting vvFish
{quote} no, my frend.
any particular reason why? it is coming out the same time as the CAD data.
Quoting TerryTibbs
{quote} any particular reason why? it is coming out the same time as the CAD data.
Run after two hares, you will catch neither.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Friday
4:45
07/24/15
CN production index PMI
(CN HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI), China, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
Quoting vvFish
{quote} Run after two hares, you will catch neither.
Surely if you have a double news release, say for both CAD and USD, and if CAD is bad and USD is good, they reinforce each other...?
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