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  • #1,011,501
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:28pm Jul 20, 2015 9:28pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi G There is qualitative difference of losing high paying good jobs vs low paying.Cheap oil does effect manufacturing including auto industry by way of stronger dollar cheaper exports.After certain threshold even auto makers will seize to make profit should cheaper currency nations dumping cheap exports in US. OIl=Dollar relationship is most acute on multiple industries. I have not read any article yet that oil at 52 has sprung up economic boom to particular industry vs the losses in manufacturing and oil industry.What you are applying...
i posted a picture years prior, now you have people trying to piece a puzzle together.. no different than techs giving a level.. and than after the fact. someone posting a news article and saying "this is the reason" it turned many times within a pip or few of a tech level years old posted long before.....
will oil have a 39 handle? i dont know.. but charts have pointed that way long ago.. just as gasoline less than 2$ was posted a year before it dropped below 2$... if one goes to mindset a year before, many said it would never happen.. and the pros were falling all over themselves when it did. with similar articles like you posted..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,011,502
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:32pm Jul 20, 2015 9:32pm
2009

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} aussia isnt safe either it takes time for things to happen and china is buying less commodities.. Look at copper aluminum steel there all down and moving further down.. U.s. Buys from china .. And we slowed buying... So eventually if u.s. Continues to slow down auss will take a big hit.. If it turns around tomorrow they will still take a hit........it takes time to use inventory... Commodity prices tell it all.. The canary in the gold mine.. ... Now gold could help aud
2015

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} cat is mainly a chi/aila play.. Its been dropping with copper/gold (mineral commodities) mines for years.. Its and relation has been posted for years. Its nothing new and little related. Cats in a downtrend.. It bounced and is continuing the lower lower trend.. Steel drop, why not? China is building less. Less need for china construction. Means less steel. Concrete, copper, etc, worldwide. In turn price drops on those producing stocks.. All this was posted years ago about china, via copper, walmart, and cat... Charts were provide and the...
de ja vu
  • #1,011,503
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:35pm Jul 20, 2015 9:35pm
slow night. tokyo is useless.

tomorrow looking the same
  • #1,011,504
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:39pm Jul 20, 2015 9:39pm
Quoting verified
looking forward to short USDCAD at 1.30100 / 1.30200 today. i'm after 10 - 20 pips only, so there should not be a big risk involved.
3045 is mid to 3206 target
  • #1,011,505
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:39pm Jul 20, 2015 9:39pm
Quoting Pharm0r
2009 {quote} 2015 {quote} de ja vu
the real proof is the later one when copper production/mining was shrinking, and the price was dropping at the same time.... the paper asian tiger is/was bs...they fu and let it be shown.. find one like that with a chart//
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,011,506
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:44pm Jul 20, 2015 9:44pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} What you are applying is relativism but I prefer substantive evidence to support your view.. Regards
if u want to research it it's there. i dont feel the need to repeat all posted. i am too lazy to look.. but the game was played long before any monday morning quarterbacks wrote the highlights
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,011,507
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:51pm Jul 20, 2015 9:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the real proof is the later one when copper production/mining was shrinking, and the price was dropping at the same time.... the paper asian tiger is/was bs...they fu and let it be shown.. find one like that with a chart//
been there, done that....

for those interested.

http://www.forexfactory.com/search.p...rchid=16299771

here's my half assed attempt with image. Im busy studying more mofumonics

shooting you a pm real quick

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i watch wallmart and copper for a bellwether on china. i am not into the amounts or if there is a crash or not there. the arab spring started as the usd was high and oil prices were lower. some had a problem with food commodity prices being higher comparably to oil then. in the chart wallmart missed a target and went higher, when this happens most times it will come back to the target. if it does, it will break a bottom that has a second target, lower then the missed one (61.65). using wallmart as a guide, china seems to have problems with...
  • #1,011,508
  • Jul 20, 2015 9:55pm Jul 20, 2015 9:55pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} First, where did you get those numbers? They are incorrect. Second, I didn't say it wouldn't drop , I said it is nonsense to say it should and at a certain exchange rate, especially withou giving a model of your analysis. third, china isn't tanking, they might be slowing , but not tanking. They are will growing at 7%+! Stop reading to much ZH. if the yuan becomes more liquid/easier to buy for foreigners, I will invest in china happily, personal debt in china is low, plenty of room to grow.
good luck
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,011,509
  • Jul 20, 2015 10:47pm Jul 20, 2015 10:47pm
Quoting AkMaLiTo
{quote} Anyone ?
You can calculate it with simple algebra. If you PM me I'll send you a book (pdf) that will show you how to compute CD extensions using fibonacci ratios.
  • #1,011,510
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:00pm Jul 20, 2015 11:00pm
GBP: looking for 5459/5444
  • #1,011,511
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:03pm Jul 20, 2015 11:03pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote}
Hi Ken,

Does something not jive? I admire your experience, so feedback is appreciated. Those calculations are merely for me to gauge the CD extension for my short order. I see the pair is at the 2003 levels. Thoughts?

Thanks.
  • #1,011,512
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:11pm Jul 20, 2015 11:11pm
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} You can calculate it with simple algebra. If you PM me I'll send you a book (pdf) that will show you how to compute CD extensions using fibonacci ratios.
Thanks for your reply mate..
I have no issues with the calculations. If you are into harmonics then please read my post again ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post8391212 ), you'll understand my question clearly and hopefully can help me out then
  • #1,011,513
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:15pm Jul 20, 2015 11:15pm
Quoting AkMaLiTo
{quote} Thanks for your reply mate.. I have no issues with the calculations. If you are into harmonics then please read my post again ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post8391212 ), you'll understand my question clearly and hopefully can help me out then
if you find Mr Scott or pedro, both are expert harmonics traders. Probably Ken A too. Scott is online right now, pop into his thread and say hello. He's friendly- as long as you call him Mr. Tall and Scary
  • #1,011,514
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:20pm Jul 20, 2015 11:20pm
very difficult to predict due to the Greek
double dosis
  • #1,011,515
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:23pm Jul 20, 2015 11:23pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} if you find Mr Scott or pedro, both are expert harmonics traders. Probably Ken A too. Scott is online right now, pop into his thread and say hello. He's friendly- as long as you call him Mr. Tall and Scary
friendly and scary? better wait for safer advisor
  • #1,011,516
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:28pm Jul 20, 2015 11:28pm
Quoting AkMaLiTo
{quote} friendly and scary? better wait for safer advisor
It builds his confidence

if you want the best adviser- you have him
  • #1,011,517
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:29pm Jul 20, 2015 11:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} good luck
You ever thought about writing a book?

Id buy it, as long as it had Cajun recipes in it.
  • #1,011,518
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:40pm Jul 20, 2015 11:40pm
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} Hi Ken, Does something not jive? I admire your experience, so feedback is appreciated. Those calculations are merely for me to gauge the CD extension for my short order. I see the pair is at the 2003 levels. Thoughts? Thanks.
I guess it's jut typo

Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} Based on my calculations (worth two sh*ts), the probability of CD extension l is found by:

B = 1.091357 - A = 1.12770 = 0.03613

Using the following Fibonacci ratios:
P1 = 1.272
P2 = 1.618
C = 1.12151


(P1)CDl = 1.272B - 1.12151 = ~1.063X
(P2)CDl = 1.618B - 1.12151 = ~1.075X

D1 = 1.12151 - (1.272 *B) = 1.075x
D2 = 1.12151 - (1.618 *B) = 1.063x
  • #1,011,519
  • Jul 20, 2015 11:47pm Jul 20, 2015 11:47pm
Quoting AkMaLiTo
{quote} Thanks for your reply mate.. I have no issues with the calculations. If you are into harmonics then please read my post again ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post8391212 ), you'll understand my question clearly and hopefully can help me out then
Sorry I misunderstood. However, the book by Pesavento explains how to gauge the "range" which you speak of, also, what validates and invalidates specific harmonic patterns.
  • #1,011,520
  • Edited 3:51am Jul 21, 2015 12:19am | Edited 3:51am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I guess it's jut typo Quoting ptoftangency {quote} Based on my calculations (worth two sh*ts), the probability of CD extension l is found by: B = 1.091357 - A = 1.12770 = 0.03613 Using the following Fibonacci ratios: P1 = 1.272 P2 = 1.618 C = 1.12151 (P1)CDl = 1.272B - 1.12151 = ~1.063X (P2)CDl = 1.618B - 1.12151 = ~1.075X D1 = 1.12151 - (1.272 *B) = 1.075x D2 = 1.12151 - (1.618 *B) = 1.063x
Ken,

What fib ratio should be in place of 1.272? Perhaps 61.8? I based it off the ABCD pattern below. Thanks again.

Daily

EDIT: Just revised my math, I see upside of 1.088X. Thanks again dude.

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