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NZD/USD

  • #9,541
  • Jul 16, 2015 12:03am Jul 16, 2015 12:03am
Quoting pooyan2012
good opportunity for long @ 0.6508
Can you tell us an estimated hold time for this trade idea? How many pips do you propose risking...10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500?

Are you looking at 30 second charts, 1 minute charts, 5 minute charts, 15 minute charts, 60 minute charts, 240 minute charts or daily charts?

Just thinking out loud.

Cheers, Motu
  • #9,542
  • Jul 16, 2015 12:49am Jul 16, 2015 12:49am
i look higher TF for opportunities and 1min TF for entry.
i risked 20pips for this particular trade and tp is not pre defined(i trail my stop).
  • #9,543
  • Jul 16, 2015 1:44am Jul 16, 2015 1:44am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} You are senior member? You really haven't got a clue what is going on? Analysts at Westpac forecasts RBNZ to reduce the official cash rate to 2% by the end of 2015 citing weak dairy prices and soft inflation - Other large investment banks forecasts the RBNZ lowering rates throughout the year with most seeing rates lowered to 2.50% by the end of the year. - Next rate meeting is on the 22nd of July will all analysts surveyed unanimously seeing rates being lowered by 25bps while Credit Suisse OIS display a 100% chance for rates to...
Yes indeedee, you have got it alright.

It will be interesting to see what range it eventually settles into. JK has been trying to talk it down to 65 for some time now, and he may well get his way, with perhaps a swing-low level a tad lower.

Personally, I would like to see greater incentives for the manufacturing sector as, at the moment, NZ's economy is a one-trick pony as far as exports are concerned; two tricks if you count the housing construction industries domestically.
  • #9,544
  • Jul 16, 2015 1:55am Jul 16, 2015 1:55am
Quoting motu
{quote} I think Erebus sums it up well here... etc.....Cheers, Motu ;-)
Hi Motu

I like your (trading) philosophy: "Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts".


Cheers mate
  • #9,545
  • Jul 16, 2015 3:10am Jul 16, 2015 3:10am
.
Attached Image
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #9,546
  • Jul 16, 2015 8:10am Jul 16, 2015 8:10am
I know that RBNZ has said before that their currency is at an unsustainable level. Does anyone know if they officially mentioned a target price or range where they'd like to see it?
  • #9,547
  • Jul 16, 2015 8:18am Jul 16, 2015 8:18am
Quoting Rm17557
I know that RBNZ has said before that their currency is at an unsustainable level. Does anyone know if they officially mentioned a target price or range where they'd like to see it?
LOL this is a silly question, they don't care where the price of the currency goes but where the economic conditions go. The bank needs to flex according to its monetary policy and focus. Unless its some sort of peg they not going to say a specific price as it doesn't matter, market competition is pretty efficient these days anyway.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #9,548
  • Jul 16, 2015 11:41am Jul 16, 2015 11:41am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} LOL this is a silly question, they don't care where the price of the currency goes but where the economic conditions go. The bank needs to flex according to its monetary policy and focus. Unless its some sort of peg they not going to say a specific price as it doesn't matter, market competition is pretty efficient these days anyway.

Actually central banks do care about how strong or weak thier currency is. And sometimes they even mention a rate that they believe is more suitable for thier current economic conditions. Earth shattering, I know.... Thank you for your help.
  • #9,549
  • Jul 16, 2015 12:03pm Jul 16, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting Rm17557
{quote} Actually central banks do care about how strong or weak thier currency is. And sometimes they even mention a rate that they believe is more suitable for thier current economic conditions. Earth shattering, I know.... Thank you for your help.
yes I didn't say they didn't care about their currency. What I meant is, they don't log onto mt4 everyday to watch the daily fluctuations of EURUSD and control the price. It is all relative to its counter pair.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #9,550
  • Jul 16, 2015 7:42pm Jul 16, 2015 7:42pm
US farmers dump over 13m litres of milk they can’t find buyers for
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news...nd-buyers-for/
  • #9,551
  • Jul 16, 2015 7:50pm Jul 16, 2015 7:50pm
Quoting Rm17557
{quote} Actually central banks do care about how strong or weak thier currency is. And sometimes they even mention a rate that they believe is more suitable for thier current economic conditions. Earth shattering, I know.... Thank you for your help.
I thought there had been talk that the cb wanted it to get down into the low .64/.66 range in recent months?? Seems like they got their demand!?
Enter Signature
  • #9,552
  • Jul 16, 2015 7:52pm Jul 16, 2015 7:52pm
Quoting Rm17557
I know that RBNZ has said before that their currency is at an unsustainable level. Does anyone know if they officially mentioned a target price or range where they'd like to see it?
Yes, we hit it today at .6500...they've been specifying that price for the last few months.
Don't trade the noise
  • #9,553
  • Jul 16, 2015 8:05pm Jul 16, 2015 8:05pm
Quoting TTFXHammer
{quote} Yes, we hit it today at .6500...they've been specifying that price for the last few months.
If you are always so sure like this you should be a Billionaire by now
At lease you could say We may see....
  • #9,554
  • Jul 16, 2015 8:24pm Jul 16, 2015 8:24pm
Quoting trader700
{quote} If you are always so sure like this you should be a Billionaire by now At lease you could say We may see....
Seems to me TTFX was just stating that RBNZ had a target of .6500 & NU hit that price today.
No predictions were made in his statement nor was he saying he was short.
At least that's the way I read it.
  • #9,555
  • Jul 16, 2015 9:10pm Jul 16, 2015 9:10pm
Quoting trader700
{quote} If you are always so sure like this you should be a Billionaire by now At lease you could say We may see....
What are you talking about? NZD/USD traded .6500 on Thursday
Don't trade the noise
  • #9,556
  • Jul 16, 2015 9:18pm Jul 16, 2015 9:18pm
Quoting TTFXHammer
{quote} Yes, we hit it today at .6500...they've been specifying that price for the last few months.
that price did not factor in 3 consecutive rate cuts. the bounce has been pathetic. so it will fall again
  • #9,557
  • Jul 16, 2015 9:29pm Jul 16, 2015 9:29pm
Looking good for a long. Just entered long position and currently in profit by a whopping 0 pips (could be worse).

Come on NZD push you little fucker.
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  • #9,558
  • Edited 10:30pm Jul 16, 2015 10:04pm | Edited 10:30pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} that price did not factor in 3 consecutive rate cuts. the bounce has been pathetic. so it will fall again
I didn't say that it wouldn't go lower. Someone asked if there was a target price that the RBNZ wanted and I simply answered his question. Actually, I'm sure the RBNZ would like it even lower as New Zealand is primarily an export country, hence a weaker currency is good for them. With U.S. rate hikes on the way, it makes perfect sense that it will surpass .6500 and keep heading down over the remainder of the year.
Don't trade the noise
  • #9,559
  • Jul 16, 2015 10:52pm Jul 16, 2015 10:52pm
Quoting TTFXHammer
{quote} I didn't say that it wouldn't go lower. Someone asked if there was a target price that the RBNZ wanted and I simply answered his question. Actually, I'm sure the RBNZ would like it even lower as New Zealand is primarily an export country, hence a weaker currency is good for them. With U.S. rate hikes on the way, it makes perfect sense that it will surpass .6500 and keep heading down over the remainder of the year.

Don't take any notice of those Muppets.... it has been documented in various articles that John Key has said the "The Goldilocks area for the NZD is at around 0.65" . So you are quite correct.
  • #9,560
  • Jul 16, 2015 10:59pm Jul 16, 2015 10:59pm
notice the grey lower bb line...It has followed it almost religiously
My bias is long at this level.
PA bounces off from 2nd deviation right under 20MA continuing down.Its at bounce up level now
Just waiting for London possibly pushing back to 65 for good entry

Factor to consider is UJ
Once she breaks 24 heading south both NZ and AU will bounce up
correlation is very strong with UJ
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