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NZD/USD

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited 3:18am Aug 6, 2010 2:48am | Edited 3:18am
  •  XTrade
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
Hello All,
This pair needs a thread for live discussion and I could not find one so,
Here we go!

(Shout to Jimobiwan - Thought you would have started it already!)

Somewhat of a temporary top formed around .7350 and after multiple attempts at the level, Some poor employment data (higher unemployment than forecast) helped derail the rising trend for the Kiwi this week.

Falling over 100 pips the pair found some support at 7250.

The LTL from 6800 rise is still intact and another attempt at 7400 may prevail should the line hold, in addition we are ahead of the NFP, which may push the USD further down. We will see tomorrow.

There may be a long in here but I am just watching Kiwi as of now.
Welcome!
Hope to see you here.
XTrade

Baby Kiwi Bird of NZ
http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/pix/kiwibird_cp_3376213.jpg
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Aug 6, 2010 3:00am Aug 6, 2010 3:00am
  •  XTrade
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
Channel Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: KIWI_channel_aug_6.GIF
Size: 237 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Aug 6, 2010 3:32am Aug 6, 2010 3:32am
  •  XTrade
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
Here is another chart leading up to now.
After the double bottom on daily.

Aussie broke a symmetrical triangle before and is rising at current.

Would like to see a pop, yet this pair can move very slowly sometimes.

Edit:
The charts are fairly naked and I am not using my regular ones. (New account) Sometimes it is nice to strip everything away and start
analysis with just a few definitive lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Kiwi+further look back.GIF
Size: 261 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Aug 6, 2010 3:55am Aug 6, 2010 3:55am
  •  uncle gromit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 183 Posts
Hi XTrade,

Nice harmonics on the weekly. NFP 2day. I will be interested to see where we close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: nzd2.gif
Size: 22 KB
Never underestimate an idiot.
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Aug 6, 2010 10:55am Aug 6, 2010 10:55am
  •  Phonetic
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 573 Posts
breaking lower DTL...
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  • Post #6
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  • Aug 6, 2010 11:09am Aug 6, 2010 11:09am
  •  rahulkghosh
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2009 | 765 Posts
Quoting XTrade
Disliked
Hello All,
This pair needs a thread for live discussion and I could not find one so,
Here we go!

(Shout to Jimobiwan - Thought you would have started it already!)

Somewhat of a temporary top formed around .7350 and after multiple attempts at the level, Some poor employment data (higher unemployment than forecast) helped derail the rising trend for the Kiwi this week.

Falling over 100 pips...
Ignored
awww. that's such a cute bird.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Aug 6, 2010 11:09am Aug 6, 2010 11:09am
  •  Phonetic
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 573 Posts
actually, it looks as if it's already been broken and just went up for the retest, nice fall at the apex:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: chart8.gif
Size: 15 KB
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Aug 6, 2010 1:29pm Aug 6, 2010 1:29pm
  •  XTrade
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
I love that bird! It has no wings and is endangered...

Quoting rahulkghosh
Disliked
awww. that's such a cute bird.
Ignored
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Aug 6, 2010 1:30pm Aug 6, 2010 1:30pm
  •  XTrade
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
I'll take another look,

my charts were not perfect, I am getting used to the charting on TS2.

Quoting Phonetic
Disliked
actually, it looks as if it's already been broken and just went up for the retest, nice fall at the apex:
Ignored
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Aug 6, 2010 1:40pm Aug 6, 2010 1:40pm
  •  XTrade
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
Hi,
Aussie and Kiwi didn't get much help from the NFP. Trying to see what else may be going on in the background..

Quoting uncle gromit
Disliked
Hi XTrade,

Nice harmonics on the weekly. NFP 2day. I will be interested to see where we close.
Ignored
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Aug 6, 2010 2:45pm Aug 6, 2010 2:45pm
  •  XTrade
  • Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
OK, this is what I got,

Risk Aversion, Commodities, Oil, base metals
ie: "Copper Declines for Second Day as U.S. Jobs Report Dims Outlook for Demand -"

Gold actually rose and is complicated during these inflation / jobs reports.

Platinum, Palladium, Crude, CU, Natgas Down, which can affect currencies from commod exporters when investors look to evade risk

"Agriculture and horticulture, forestry, fisheries, energy and minerals are the primary natural resources of New Zealand. The most valuable of these product groups, providing a high proportion of New Zealand's export earnings is agriculture and horticulture which incorporates the production of sheepmeat, beef, wool, dairy produce and hides, deer, goats and cereal products. In fact, agricultural products total more than 50% of all New Zealand exports."

So livestock, dairy, beef, and lumber should be good barometers for this pair at times.

Actually - just checked Lumber for Sept delivery is down $5.50

I am fairly new to KIWI trading. Still learning. If anyone who is more experienced in this pair would like to add please do.

Aussie getting a nice pop here before weekend. Kiwi slightly
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Aug 7, 2010 11:12am Aug 7, 2010 11:12am
  •  uncle gromit
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 183 Posts
Quoting XTrade
Disliked
OK, this is what I got,

Risk Aversion, Commodities, Oil, base metals
ie: "Copper Declines for Second Day as U.S. Jobs Report Dims Outlook for Demand -"

Gold actually rose and is complicated during these inflation / jobs reports.

Platinum, Palladium, Crude, CU, Natgas Down, which can affect currencies from commod exporters when investors look to evade risk

"Agriculture and horticulture, forestry, fisheries, energy and minerals are the primary natural resources of New Zealand. The most valuable of these product groups, providing a high proportion...
Ignored
I'm not a funny mental person. Purely technical for me. Can't say much more. Just the chart looks like price is stalling.
Never underestimate an idiot.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Aug 7, 2010 12:53pm Aug 7, 2010 12:53pm
  •  Gollum99988
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 287 Posts
Hallo to everybody

I'm new on forex factory. I'm trading forex like 2 Jears now,english is not my mother lenguage so sorry for all my foults.
That's way I'm gonna make videos that you can understand me better :)

Inserted Video

 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:11pm Aug 9, 2010 6:35pm | Edited 10:11pm
  •  Pickensrulz
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
Kiwi is ready for a big break. It is finishing consolidating in a wedge formation and will break out soon, FOMC will trigger a break out more than likely.

Sell Below 7245 or Buy Above 7344 will be the trade.

i wanted a break higher but it appears to want lower.
short at 7259
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Aug 10, 2010 9:55pm Aug 10, 2010 9:55pm
  •  Pickensrulz
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Member | 264 Posts
Quoting Pickensrulz
Disliked
Kiwi is ready for a big break. It is finishing consolidating in a wedge formation and will break out soon, FOMC will trigger a break out more than likely.

Sell Below 7245 or Buy Above 7344 will be the trade.

i wanted a break higher but it appears to want lower.
short at 7259
Ignored
Kiwi could not close about 7245 after FOMC. It couldn't even get past the tip of the wedge at 7280. This is very negative for this pair. I expect .70xx this week.
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Aug 11, 2010 10:53am Aug 11, 2010 10:53am
  •  Phonetic
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 573 Posts
need this 4HR bar to close below the TL for more shorts...so far looking good:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: chart3.gif
Size: 17 KB
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Aug 11, 2010 11:08am Aug 11, 2010 11:08am
  •  Gollum99988
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 287 Posts
And already second target is touched, but when it shuld drop to the third target than I would be looking for long (+100 pips) becouse I think there is some support

(ale to jest forex wiec wszystko moze sie wydarzyc)
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Aug 18, 2010 6:40pm Aug 18, 2010 6:40pm
  •  Srikanth
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Nov 2007 | 774 Posts
News in 5 mins.. Are we going down from here?
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Aug 18, 2010 7:17pm Aug 18, 2010 7:17pm
  •  AllDayIrish
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Member | 70 Posts
Quoting Srikanth
Disliked
News in 5 mins.. Are we going down from here?
Ignored

Barely a blip around news time. I believe we're heading down. GLTY
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Aug 18, 2010 8:02pm Aug 18, 2010 8:02pm
  •  Astroman
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2010 | 1,300 Posts
Quoting AllDayIrish
Disliked
Barely a blip around news time. I believe we're heading down. GLTY
Ignored
yeah I thought we would see a bit of a jump on that even if it didn't last long. Could the drop in the EUR/USD be holding this back some?
 
 
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