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NZD/USD

  • #9,521
  • Jul 12, 2015 5:59am Jul 12, 2015 5:59am
Quoting pips2504
thanks 'Erebus' you say "plenty of bear left in NZD Not me.... can I ask your opinon on that statement - i thought kiwi is the most bearish major currency - possibly rbnz 3 rate cuts, chinese slowdown etc - the future for kiwi appears gloomy - thanks
In my view from just eye balling the chart it is going down. Will it go lower from here I would say Yes. Will it go up short term before resuming the downward move - possibly. There has been support around this level in the past and even if there had not been everyone can see it's dropped a lot already. So the trend is obviously down. Is this a long term bottom I would say No. Is it a short term bottom - Maybe. The long term play here has to be short. If you use small position sizes then there is not many reasons to say taking a short position here is dumb. If it goes up short some more and keep your exposure light. I'll be looking to add some more shorts if it goes up some more or bobs around.On the D 1 chart we have an engulfing bar down. That is a simple bearish signal.Don't over think it. It will go down eventually. Can you hold on to your position? Remember the market can be illogical longer than you can remain liquid.
  • #9,522
  • Jul 12, 2015 3:43pm Jul 12, 2015 3:43pm
going to long till 0.69 which is the 23% fib of the selloff. price is bottom of channel on w1 in addition, rsi proping up from os conditions
  • #9,523
  • Jul 12, 2015 4:10pm Jul 12, 2015 4:10pm
position entered.
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  • #9,524
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:23pm Jul 13, 2015 8:23pm
Now making new lows from last few days.
  • #9,525
  • Jul 13, 2015 8:38pm Jul 13, 2015 8:38pm
Quoting Lover Man
Now making new lows from last few days.
means long or short ?
not euphoria follower
  • #9,526
  • Jul 13, 2015 9:20pm Jul 13, 2015 9:20pm
Quoting iqyu5an
{quote} means long or short ?
It is going down
  • #9,527
  • Jul 13, 2015 9:22pm Jul 13, 2015 9:22pm
why ? how far ?
Quoting Lover Man
{quote} It is going down
not euphoria follower
  • #9,528
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:43am Jul 15, 2015 4:43am
NZDUSD fails to clear its intermediate resistance near 0.6750-60 area and drops back below 0.6700 mark.
A sustained trade below 0.6700-0.6680 area might now drag the pair back towards 0.6600 mark support before aiming lower level support near 0.6550-40 area.
  • #9,529
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:50am Jul 15, 2015 4:50am
trying hard to break yesterday's low. any bounced above 669x, will bring kiwi higher
not euphoria follower
  • #9,530
  • Jul 15, 2015 4:51am Jul 15, 2015 4:51am
NZDUSD H1 bearish trend continuation
sell recommendation
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  • #9,531
  • Jul 15, 2015 5:29am Jul 15, 2015 5:29am
Quoting HareshBM
NZDUSD fails to clear its intermediate resistance near 0.6750-60 area and drops back below 0.6700 mark. A sustained trade below 0.6700-0.6680 area might now drag the pair back towards 0.6600 mark support before aiming lower level support near 0.6550-40 area.
Expect a retest at the 0.6550 levels.
Take what the market gives you.
  • #9,532
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:44am Jul 15, 2015 11:44am
Quoting Tiggrrr
{quote} Expect a retest at the 0.6550 levels.
Kindly define "retest" here... as .6550 is another low.
Prachait Saxena
  • #9,533
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:57am Jul 15, 2015 11:57am
S3 is enough for me today so I closed at 0.659

I will look for another entry

Hopefully we'll get a small rise from here and I can start to sell again higher up
  • #9,534
  • Jul 15, 2015 8:57pm Jul 15, 2015 8:57pm
Time for this baby to juice some pips toward the up side! I'm long at 0.6540 and looking for 0.6610 at least SL 06525 so RR is just GREAT for me
  • #9,535
  • Jul 15, 2015 9:19pm Jul 15, 2015 9:19pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
Time for this baby to juice some pips toward the up side! I'm long at 0.6540 and looking for 0.6610 at least SL 06525 so RR is just GREAT for me
once this baby closes above 0.6570, i'm moving my SL to BE (Currently at 0.6552)
  • #9,536
  • Jul 15, 2015 9:45pm Jul 15, 2015 9:45pm
Quoting prachait
{quote} Kindly define "retest" here... as .6550 is another low.
prachait low is yet to be formed on this pair and will be formed once RBNZ cuts. dairy prices are falling, fonterra payouts are falling, plus a stronger dollar, inflation is subdued. 0.63 will be the bottom in my opinion
  • #9,537
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:19pm Jul 15, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
Time for this baby to juice some pips toward the up side! I'm long at 0.6540 and looking for 0.6610 at least SL 06525 so RR is just GREAT for me
You are senior member? You really haven't got a clue what is going on?

Analysts at Westpac forecasts RBNZ to reduce the official cash rate to 2% by the end of 2015 citing weak dairy prices and soft inflation

- Other large investment banks forecasts the RBNZ lowering rates throughout the year with most seeing rates lowered to 2.50% by the end of the year.

- Next rate meeting is on the 22nd of July will all analysts surveyed unanimously seeing rates being lowered by 25bps while Credit Suisse OIS display a 100% chance for rates to be reduced at the meeting.

BNZ forecast RBNZ to lower cash rates to 2.50% in October

Westpac says RBNZ is likely to cut rates by 50bps in Sept - Source TradeTheNews.com
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #9,538
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:29pm Jul 15, 2015 11:29pm
Anybody got kids, about 6 or 7 years old?

Please ask then what the trend is on this chart?

Thanks

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #9,539
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:46pm Jul 15, 2015 11:46pm
good opportunity for long @ 0.6508
  • #9,540
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:54pm Jul 15, 2015 11:54pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} You are senior member?
You really haven't got a clue what is going on?

Analysts at Westpac forecasts RBNZ to reduce the official cash rate to 2% by the end of 2015 citing weak dairy prices and soft inflation.

Other large investment banks forecasts the RBNZ lowering rates throughout the year with most seeing rates lowered to 2.50% by the end of the year.

- Next rate meeting is on the 22nd of July with all analysts surveyed unanimously seeing rates being lowered by 25bps while Credit Suisse OIS display...
I think Erebus sums it up well here. If you need more convincing, have a look at this long term graph...the clue is: NZ is like a big farm!! (Our farmers desperately need the NZD to fall further to cushion the blow of our weak dairy sales priced in USD)...remember, NZ is not like Greece....we actually have a floating exchange rate ;-)

Attached Image


Cheers, Motu ;-)
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