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  • #1,009,321
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:55am Jul 12, 2015 11:55am
I have the same thinking as TTFXHammer. Can't just predict the future but the last two weekends things were a lot worse than this time. Anyone thought a deal would be reached in a couple of hours?
Talks are hard like they should be, but a deal is in progress and that's a lot better than last time.
But what will happen we will see only when market opens, not earlier.

Cheers
  • #1,009,322
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:57am Jul 12, 2015 11:57am
Well, whatever it does, I'm still bullish, long-term. Definitely keeping longs open.
  • #1,009,323
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:04pm Jul 12, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting notouch
Guys, they're closer to an agreement than they were on Friday and Greece has totally surrendered. Whatever the Eurozone heads agree on, that's what the Greeks will do. These are all bullish developments for the Euro. There'll be no big gap down.
For any trader to take a position banking on a gap either way up or down is gambling. No one knows which way it will open or gap Monday. What we do know is the Eur Usd is heading up against all of the short sellers who have been getting ground up the last few weeks.
  • #1,009,324
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:04pm Jul 12, 2015 12:04pm
This is how my fundamental analysis went this weekend...

"self,

If I had no idea what a currency was worth, but was still plugged into the happenings of the world, and I could have 1000 units of whatever denomination I chose.....would I choose a Euro or a Dollar?"
  • #1,009,325
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:05pm Jul 12, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting notouch
Totally agree TTFXHammer. I can't see why anyone would think this would lead to a gap down unless they didn't really understand the issues. The Euro rallied on the possibility of a deal and now that deal looks much closer. If anything the gap will be up.
Yep...I suspect a deal will be agreed upon by the end of day but with stipulations. Greece will be a given a few days to implement the necessary changes in order to get the official bailout money. If they do not, then no money and Grexit. However, the way Tsipras has rolled over the last few days, I suspect he will do anything to get his hands on the money.
Don't trade the noise
  • #1,009,326
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:08pm Jul 12, 2015 12:08pm
I'm following the news all the day and all means a solution is coming soon for the greek
  • #1,009,327
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:11pm Jul 12, 2015 12:11pm
FX quotes back up: EUR.USD 1.0988 / 1.1114

http://www.fxall.com/fx-rates/fx-rates
  • #1,009,328
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:13pm Jul 12, 2015 12:13pm
Quoting notouch
Totally agree TTFXHammer. I can't see why anyone would think this would lead to a gap down unless they didn't really understand the issues. The Euro rallied on the possibility of a deal and now that deal looks much closer. If anything the gap will be up.
Agreed...
It's not done this weekend. It now looks there would be no direct deal...but maybe next week (and maybe not) but they are still talking and probably next week also. Greece need to get agreed with some EU proposals first (that's how it looks like now). So in that light it's not directly negative. And also not incredible positive....

I think the gap goes up....and because of the uncertancy it will close the gap and afterwarts we are probably still in a consolidation fase. The last depends on the decisions they take in the next week in Greece....

This behaviour would also fit in my forecast: first up to around initial 1,1304 - 18 - 47 (could go high as an extreme 1,1374) then I finished a larger Expanded Flat. It implies (in my HEW-count) a move lower...but it can be an impulsive move really down or still consolidation again eg a triangle or just some simple zigzags .... well the last things are ofcourse not clear jet and it just needs to develop... but my feeling is that we still in consolidation in the next coming sessions....

my 2 cents...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,009,329
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:16pm Jul 12, 2015 12:16pm
Ops.
Proposal: Greece to be offered euro time-out if no deal

I regret now for my buy in friday.But lets see after 45 minutes.
  • #1,009,330
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:18pm Jul 12, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting MisterWhite
FX quotes back up: EUR.USD 1.0988 / 1.1114 http://www.fxall.com/fx-rates/fx-rates
Once again, this Weekend the SNB has been purchasing loads of EUR and selling USD

This stuff never gets old
  • #1,009,331
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:21pm Jul 12, 2015 12:21pm
Quoting MisterWhite
FX quotes back up: EUR.USD 1.0988 / 1.1114 http://www.fxall.com/fx-rates/fx-rates
Really....?! do you know if this was really the low of the low for now??

Last friday I was suggesting a low (for now) around 1,1114 but probably it would be hidden in the gap.... (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post8375820)
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,009,332
  • Edited 12:40pm Jul 12, 2015 12:23pm | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Really....?! do you know if this was really the low of the low for now?? Last friday I was suggesting a low (for now) around 1,1114 but probably it would be hidden in the gap.... (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post8375820)
That was the price the second I posted. Looks like it's going up. Edit: I should say, bid/ask is tightening.
  • #1,009,333
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:24pm Jul 12, 2015 12:24pm
We're just getting news that Liverpool FC have agreed to sell their star player Raheem Sterling to Manchester City for £49m ($76m).
We've just worked out that a Greek bailout worth €82bn would be the equivalent of 1,023 Raheem Sterlings.
  • #1,009,334
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:29pm Jul 12, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting MisterWhite
{quote} That was the price the second I posted. Looks like it's going up.
Ow I see..... in the historical quotes I see the lowest low I can spot....was at Sydney 5PM 7AM UTC (1,1094)
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,009,335
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:47pm Jul 12, 2015 12:47pm
there is no gap.
  • #1,009,336
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:53pm Jul 12, 2015 12:53pm
Greece accepts all demands
http://news.sky.com/story/1517551/gr...in-bailout-bid
Would be foolish for euro ministers (Germany) to block it, they have left it so long who knows what will happen next
  • #1,009,337
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:57pm Jul 12, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting rashidcm2004
there is no gap.
The low I now see is 1,1081...in that case the coming high could as low as 1,1278 - 1,1334.... and also my count could be destroyed.... Well we see what is in a few hours ....
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,009,338
  • Jul 12, 2015 1:01pm Jul 12, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting DarrylX6
Greece accepts all demands http://news.sky.com/story/1517551/gr...in-bailout-bid Would be foolish for euro ministers (Germany) to block it, they have left it so long who knows what will happen next
Lets see what parliament has to say. 72 hours, meanwhile, lets trade gaps!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...gling-to-trust
Perfecting your entry will increase your profits
  • #1,009,339
  • Edited 1:18pm Jul 12, 2015 1:02pm | Edited 1:18pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} The low I now see is 1,1081...in that case the coming high could as low as 1,1278 - 1,1334.... and also my count could be destroyed.... Well we see what is in a few hours ....

EURUSD = 1.1068
  • #1,009,340
  • Jul 12, 2015 1:06pm Jul 12, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting DarrylX6
Greece accepts all demands http://news.sky.com/story/1517551/gr...in-bailout-bid Would be foolish for euro ministers (Germany) to block it, they have left it so long who knows what will happen next
The proposals are absurd and they will not work. It is the private companies that can get an economy out of recessions. Not the public sector.
Why would I do business in Greece today with so high corporate tax and huge VAT ? Capital has no nationality.
What would I gain to risk my capital there?

Greece will go into bigger depression agreeing to those terms.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
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