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The Really Useless Thread

  • #136,101
  • Jul 12, 2015 10:46am Jul 12, 2015 10:46am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Surprise surprise 1.112x test with London going home and that was it for sisse this week... Still sitting tight for the major swings until the wide range is resolved so same levels, same trades, same all.... GL all holding positions over the weekend ... sisse
When you get a chance, check your PMs please. Nothing pressing
  • #136,102
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:05am Jul 12, 2015 11:05am
...and that was pretty much it for the weekend drama.

New deadline: 15 July for Greece to pass reforms and only then talk about new deal. Couple of days before Private default and a week before ECB/EZ default ...This is becoming the most endless soap opera of all times ....

Pathetic really, EZ [deservedly] treating Greece like naughty 6 years old kid "finish your homework or no candy today". Basically nobody in the EZ believes Greece anymore. This time they will need to walk the talk before any more deals...

Euro expected to open in the same wide chop zone of the last 4 weeks ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,103
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:07am Jul 12, 2015 11:07am
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it for the weekend drama. New deadline: 15 July for Greece to pass reforms and only then talk about new deal. Couple of days before Private default and a week before ECB/EZ default ...This is becoming the most endless soap opera of all times .... Pathetic really, EZ [deservedly] treating Greece like naughty 6 years old kid "finish your homework or no candy today". Basically nobody in the EZ believes Greece anymore. This time they will need to walk the talk before any more deals... Euro expected to open in the same wide...
I was expecting this. Had some shorts kept open.
Intraday only.
  • #136,104
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:09am Jul 12, 2015 11:09am
Do u expect a small or big gap like last two weeks?

Personally i think it will be between 20-50 pips not more..
  • #136,105
  • Jul 12, 2015 11:15am Jul 12, 2015 11:15am
Quoting navk
{quote} I was expecting this. Had some shorts kept open.
The longer this last Greek Drama Chapter takes to be clear the faster and deeper the next leg will be in the euro .... By now, there is a lot of fuel on the mid term consolidation range... enough to carry euro till the first FED hikes and the end of the year ...

For now, like usual in any (TF)consolidation range only one thing to have: PATIENCE !!! meanwhile Greece will keep providing chop and noise and flirting with a full blown risk / panic that it never comes ... Nothing to see but track the drama on the background with markets on the sidelines until the noise is clear....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,106
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:22pm Jul 12, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it for the weekend drama. New deadline: 15 July for Greece to pass reforms and only then talk about new deal. Couple of days before Private default and a week before ECB/EZ default ...This is becoming the most endless soap opera of all times .... Pathetic really, EZ [deservedly] treating Greece like naughty 6 years old kid "finish your homework or no candy today". Basically nobody in the EZ believes Greece anymore. This time they will need to walk the talk before any more deals... Euro expected to open in the same wide...
hello sisse
under 08 in ur book or very hard to see?
  • #136,107
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:31pm Jul 12, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Third weekend in a row tracking markets.
Thank you very much, it was great reading all the time. You are saint . T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #136,108
  • Jul 12, 2015 12:35pm Jul 12, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} The longer this last Greek Drama Chapter takes to be clear the faster and deeper the next leg will be in the euro .... By now, there is a lot of fuel on the mid term consolidation range... enough to carry euro till the first FED hikes and the end of the year ... For now, like usual in any (TF)consolidation range only one thing to have: PATIENCE !!! meanwhile Greece will keep providing chop and noise and flirting with a full blown risk / panic that it never comes ... Nothing to see but track the drama on the background with markets on the...
Yes, better to be on sidelines or just trade based on daily noice/sentiment.
Intraday only.
  • #136,109
  • Jul 12, 2015 8:26pm Jul 12, 2015 8:26pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/tspir...203500531.html

Is Farage right? - are we seeing the beginning of a divergence between the north and south in the EU states that will spell the end of the union? Is the north indifferent to the threat of radicalized Islamic migrants into the southern states?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,110
  • Jul 13, 2015 1:53am Jul 13, 2015 1:53am
we have a deal, everybody party like it's ....uh
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136,111
  • Jul 13, 2015 2:22am Jul 13, 2015 2:22am
Quoting LarryDarrell
... but on Sunday evening monday morning they will emerge from the conference room and will state: we have aversed the unthinkable, the catastrophe. 'Peace for our time' they will say.
oh yeah. Look what a nice result we've got. A trust fund for privatization, 50 bn?
Fail better.
  • #136,112
  • Edited 3:01am Jul 13, 2015 2:31am | Edited 3:01am
Last weeks candle looks clear enough. With risk washing off we've just got a natural leg off support on a timid FED. And to be honest, the Euro has been relatively strong in its own right (risk aside.) compared to some other currencies I've been tracking.

Same old levels in play. 1.122/127 coming back into the picture. A daily break of 127 opens up the highs at 14+. The more likely play is the sell highs range play before then (intraday trades.) and just track the end of this Greek story for now. Very trade-able support at 1.1060 to bring up another 122/127 test.
  • #136,113
  • Jul 13, 2015 3:15am Jul 13, 2015 3:15am
Looks like we are ready for the long awaited leg to 07xx territory, H1 posted a valid cross.
[EU Daily]
Attached Image
  • #136,114
  • Jul 13, 2015 4:10am Jul 13, 2015 4:10am
Quoting The Fool
we have a deal, everybody party like it's ....uh
... and a harsher one.... The incompetence of the current Greek government handling the crisis is of EPIC proportions.

The Greek Incompetent Government timeline until today:

  1. 4 Months to come with an offer, pass any reforms and launch their own program... result nothing
  2. 2 Months before last deal expires, instead of proposing a plan or trying to renegotiate one, it decided to play international politics and start a Tour of insults across Europe....result nothing
  3. 1 month before deal expires...desperation and "lets try to talk" but conversation break every second day when Greek officials go public insulting and trashing the negotiation to satisfy their local hardliners ..... result nothing
  4. Day of expiration .... changed attitude, we are GOOD the EZ is the "Devil". We wont pay because its too much .... result banks close, capital controls, EZ new deal out of the question, 18 angry members among a 19 members club .... default to the IMF
  5. Dooms days. Desperation change of attitude begging for new deal. EZ unwillingly start a long series of meetings in Brussels. Result: Agreement is reached hours before deadline....
  6. .... 2 hours later with everybody back home from their plains. They decide to screw the agreement and finger the EZ and call a referendum after the offer from EZ was expired about austerity or no austerity ....Result No win no more austerity ....
  7. .... 2 hours later the referendum, They decide to screw their useless referendum and finger their voters and decide to actually ask for a New deal ....Result EZ laughing and saying no fck way without extra conditions....

​​Outcome so far an even harsher deal than the one it was agreed before the Referendum .... WTF were these guys thinking? .... The day Greek people decide to put a stop electing corrupt or/and incompetent politicians that will be the day Greek will start improving with or without the euro in the equation ....

------ ------------

In any case, Euro as expected since yesterday leaked agreement stuck in wide chop zone....

For the next couple of days sadly noisy Greek "Tweet trading" expected until they vote or not for the reforms they are supposed to pass ...but the real deal comes later with Yellen (for the hikes play) and especially ECB on the first conference since Greece default as we want to hear details on the contingency plans for a Grexit and how they are going to manage the imminent default the week after.... Until then pretty much noise on the table ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,115
  • Jul 13, 2015 4:27am Jul 13, 2015 4:27am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... and a harsher one.... The incompetence of the current Greek government handling the crisis is of EPIC proportions. The Greek Incompetent Government timeline until today: 4 Months to come with an offer, pass any reforms and launch their own program... result nothing 2 Months before last deal expires, instead of proposing a plan or trying to renegotiate one, it decided to play international politics and start a Tour of insults across Europe....result nothing 1 month before deal expires...desperation and "lets try to talk" but conversation...
Good Day Sisse!
Can I ask, what is your trading plan?
I'm long, but since "deal" I'm not happy, because retail sentiment was changing to rather bullish while price was falling.
But on the other side:
- still more shorts and average entry tells these shorts are mainly in profit. (retailers can't win in the long term)
- still last higher TF signals are all buy signals and 1.1 has been defended.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,116
  • Jul 13, 2015 4:54am Jul 13, 2015 4:54am
Quoting Atihun
{quote} if you use mt4 there is a period converter indi for free you could use for any tf you wish.
Quoting sakisf
{quote} tradingview has
Quoting build11
{quote} I went to dailyfx.com and clicked on power charts . They have a 8 hr setting for their charts . Website also has other chart providers but didnt check anyothers . Hope this helps Hope everyone has a great weekend
Thank you all!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,117
  • Jul 13, 2015 5:03am Jul 13, 2015 5:03am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Good Day Sisse! Can I ask, what is your trading plan? I'm long, but since "deal" I'm not happy, because retail sentiment was changing to rather bullish while price was falling. But on the other side: - still more shorts and average entry tells these shorts are mainly in profit. (retailers can't win in the long term) - still last higher TF signals are all buy signals and 1.1 has been defended.
I haven't change anything. Why should I? ...at least with the current data nothing has changed ...Same levels, same plays, same all...

----> On the sentiment and Greece. A couple of well known facts:

  1. The euro (any major currency) WONT never ever go down CONSISTENTLY in panic until you clear and settle short term risk. Even the biggest panic leg of the last 100 years (Lehman and friends) was almost completely bought back in no time...Why? more conservative money and real size DONT just bet the house on a tweet here or there in the middle of a intraday session, etc. If they want to push it down when the outcome is settle, they will and then is when you have a smooth ride ...
  2. Retail is irrelevant [most of the time] and especially in mid term consolidation ranges for macro legs. The ones who will settle direction and make the move up or down is not them. Retail just go with the ebb and flow of the noise and the leftovers of the major news plays and legs....

Look I understand the main TA problem/doubt at these levels (our chart conversation is perfect to show what is in play) but this is the hardest part in trading in any TF and instrument: When exactly a retrace ends and the next trend wave resume?

---> I can only give you a couple of hints/ideas:

  1. The problem with a retrace/pullback is that smaller TFs will show screaming trends while in higher TFs this "screaming" trend is just a clear retrace of the major TREND.
  2. This will lead to extended consolidation chop zones until it pans out (almost always in the direction of the main trend). Because every pullback on the small TFs is bought as continuation of the smaller TF new "trend" while every peak in the smaller Tfs is sold as the end of the retrace from the larger TFs continuation...

Basically, what I have been mentioning for a while in our conversations: CHOOSE YOUR POISON. ...and in any consolidation if you don't want to get hammered what do you do? ....You either fade the extremes or take a confirmed break on the direction of the major trend... anything else and you will get hammered in chop ....

I hope it helps ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #136,118
  • Jul 13, 2015 5:44am Jul 13, 2015 5:44am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I haven't change anything. Why should I? ...at least with the current data nothing has changed ...Same levels, same plays, same all... ----> On the sentiment and Greece. A couple of well known facts: The euro (any major currency) WONT never ever go down CONSISTENTLY in panic until you clear and settle short term risk. Even the biggest panic leg of the last 100 years (Lehman and friends) was almost completely bought back in no time...Why? more conservative money and real size DONT just bet the house on a tweet here or there in the middle...
Thanks for your answer!
I fully accept your reasoning/argument, however I think it's a big mistake to underrate retailers.
I know retailers has nearly no impact on price, but my experience is they can indicate moves, that can not be forecast with common indicators.
In this game the smallest fishes are the retailers. The retailer never knows what happens actually (behind the scene), they (we) are the last one of knowing any information, to receive any data, to hear any rumor... If the (most) retailer is positioned in the right direction, than there is big trouble. That would mean bigger (bigger, than retailers) fishes are positioned the wrong way.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #136,119
  • Jul 13, 2015 6:01am Jul 13, 2015 6:01am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
Looks like we are ready for the long awaited leg to 07xx territory, H1 posted a valid cross. [EU Daily] {image}
  • #136,120
  • Jul 13, 2015 6:59am Jul 13, 2015 6:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... and a harsher one.... The incompetence of the current Greek government handling the crisis is of EPIC proportions. The Greek Incompetent Government timeline until today: 4 Months to come with an offer, pass any reforms and launch their own program... result nothing 2 Months before last deal expires, instead of proposing a plan or trying to renegotiate one, it decided to play international politics and start a Tour of insults across Europe....result nothing 1 month before deal expires...desperation and "lets try to talk" but conversation...
What drama! Of course, the Greeks created "drama." The term comes from a Greek word meaning action (Classical Greek: δρᾶμα, drama), which is derived from the verb meaning to do or to act (Classical Greek: δράω, draō). Thanks, Sisse, for your analysis!
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