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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #10,101
  • Jul 7, 2015 11:39pm Jul 7, 2015 11:39pm
Quoting stylinex
I think today could be one ugly ass drop for the DAX. One hell of a bloodbath in Hong Kong and China this morning. HK Index is down over 1000 points this morning.
China has been selling-off the last couple of weeks, although with an Average PE ratio closer to 85 when the market was at its peak, its no surprise its down now. There is incredible leverage in China and HK atm, so margin calls are exacerbating the sell off.

I agree in that I only see weakness, but this could extend until the end of the week. The 5 day deadline to determine if there is a Grexit looms this Sunday, so either way, we'll most likely get gap-pricing on Monday either way.

The fact that we are below the 200sma on the Daily chart, and its failed to break above it the last couple of days suggests to me that this market is in a position of weakness. I warned yesterday that there would be a sell-off, today and the rest of the week could be the same as investors de-risk.
  • #10,102
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:05am Jul 8, 2015 1:05am
76.4% - can it hold?
  • #10,103
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:10am Jul 8, 2015 1:10am
Quoting cat
76.4% - can it hold?
In points?
  • #10,104
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:10am Jul 8, 2015 1:10am
I'll be looking for Long positions around low 10,600s either today or tomorrow.
  • #10,105
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:20am Jul 8, 2015 1:20am
It's all looking pretty bearish now on every TF, and any push up will be a move against the main daily momentum. The Daily 200ema/sma have been decisively broken, and it's looking to me as if 10,000 is the next target sellers are looking at for July.
  • #10,106
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:21am Jul 8, 2015 1:21am
Quoting cat
It's all looking pretty bearish now on every TF, and any push up will be a move against the main daily momentum. The Daily 200ema/sma have been decisively broken, and it's looking to me as if 10,000 is the next target sellers are looking at for July.
China now down 10.5% for the day only!
  • #10,107
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:21am Jul 8, 2015 1:21am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} In points?
?
  • #10,108
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:32am Jul 8, 2015 1:32am
i think we're going to retrace back up, like we did yesterday, and every gap down before that, and the pattern is going to continue until we get an exit or a deal done.
with that being said, imo the news out of Brussels is bad, Dax should go down, but hey, ride the wave no matter which way it takes us.
best of luck to all
  • #10,109
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:39am Jul 8, 2015 1:39am
Quoting Decu33
i think we're going to retrace back up, like we did yesterday, and every gap down before that, and the pattern is going to continue until we get an exit or a deal done. with that being said, imo the news out of Brussels is bad, Dax should go down, but hey, ride the wave no matter which way it takes us. best of luck to all
I agree, you can't have much directional bias when it's like this, just take trades both ways as they present themselves. We are just as likely to have a 200 pip fall today as a 200 pip rally.
  • #10,110
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:59am Jul 8, 2015 1:59am
Quoting cat
{quote} ?
what is your 76.4% Fib in points (eg level)?
  • #10,111
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:15am Jul 8, 2015 2:15am
We now have a 15min power candle for long..those who wants to scalp long can enter now..awaiting current 30mins and hourly candle to show power for long and more up moves awaits..
  • #10,112
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:18am Jul 8, 2015 2:18am
Quoting acit
We now have a 15min power candle for long..those who wants to scalp long can enter now..awaiting current 30mins and hourly candle to show power for long and more up moves awaits..
is there a site you recommend that i could read up on those "power candles"
thanks,
  • #10,113
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:24am Jul 8, 2015 2:24am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} what is your 76.4% Fib in points (eg level)?
Sorry I see -10,717.
  • #10,114
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:30am Jul 8, 2015 2:30am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} China has been selling-off the last couple of weeks, although with an Average PE ratio closer to 85 when the market was at its peak, its no surprise its down now. There is incredible leverage in China and HK atm, so margin calls are exacerbating the sell off. I agree in that I only see weakness, but this could extend until the end of the week. The 5 day deadline to determine if there is a Grexit looms this Sunday, so either way, we'll most likely get gap-pricing on Monday either way. The fact that we are below the 200sma on the Daily chart,...
Almost -2000 points in Hong Kong now. This is crazy.. -1978.29 on my screen now
  • #10,115
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:30am Jul 8, 2015 2:30am
scratch that. Holy cow -2070 points now
  • #10,116
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:33am Jul 8, 2015 2:33am
Quoting Decu33
{quote} is there a site you recommend that i could read up on those "power candles" thanks,
http://candlecharts.com/ The Father of candlestick patterns, though don't read too much into it. The most important ones are hammers and dojis, but it's all here.
  • #10,117
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:40am Jul 8, 2015 2:40am
Quoting cat
{quote} http://candlecharts.com/ The Father of candlestick patterns, though don't read too much into it. The most important ones are hammers and dojis, but it's all here.
thanks a lot!!
  • #10,118
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:48am Jul 8, 2015 2:48am
Quoting Decu33
{quote} thanks a lot!!
Actually, if you want my take on candlestick patterns, and for anyone who is interested, I found that they are really useful for trade entries, but only when you have other signals from whichever indicators you use for an imminent trade. So for example when you have diversion, x has cossed y, B is beneath A, and you are expecting the price to fall, you then watch the candles, and a full negative candle followed by a negative hammer which closes beneath a certain MA or whatever you use, will be the one to trade off. Candles cannot be relied upon in isolation, but as part of your entry signal strategy, they can work wonderfully.
  • #10,119
  • Jul 8, 2015 2:55am Jul 8, 2015 2:55am
Quoting Decu33
{quote} is there a site you recommend that i could read up on those "power candles" thanks,
I learned it from a master..basically there are 3 power candle types..power type 1 is engulfing candle where its high and its low is move than the previous candle..

eg:

Attached Image
  • #10,120
  • Jul 8, 2015 3:05am Jul 8, 2015 3:05am
Quoting cat
{quote} Actually, if you want my take on candlestick patterns, and for anyone who is interested, I found that they are really useful for trade entries, but only when you have other signals from whichever indicators you use for an imminent trade. So for example when you have diversion, x has cossed y, B is beneath A, and you are expecting the price to fall, you then watch the candles, and a full negative candle followed by a negative hammer which closes beneath a certain MA or whatever you use, will be the one to trade off. Candles cannot be relied...
i read Nison's book - japanese candlestick charting technique - interesting stuff but i couldn't remember the terminology of "power candle"...
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