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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,901
  • Jun 30, 2015 2:42pm Jun 30, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting nic73
USDCAD 30 June 2015, Tuesday Took a late entry on this. Woke up fro my sleep to realise that price has breached the neckline. It look to me a sHs pattern before the neckline was breached. Target is about 57 pips away from entry. Right now about 10 pips gained. Will see what happen in the later hours. {image} Update on USDCAD (10 hours after trade entry): Trade stopped out at 1.2363 level for a lost of 46 pips! This is at around 21ema. ATR to 73-91 pips but I didn't use that as a guideline to stop loss as I felt it was too high. Do leave me your...

This is how I see it:

you should probably expect a pull back, SL , my guess, I would go with the ATR , 1.2335 aprox.
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Yvon
  • #28,902
  • Edited 1:29pm Jul 1, 2015 11:26am | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting nic73
AUDNZD I have been trying this for some months now but without much success so it's time I post my questions here for help from the very experienced traders. For example, in the chart below, I have drawn three trend-lines (blue colour). Price stalled in these areas and I was waiting for it to breach the trend-lines to enter trade. But as you can see, trade here were almost impossible if whether on the H4 or H1 time frame, it has moved 200 and 130 pips. This sort of scenario happens quite often. Is there another technique to capture such trade, i.e....
HI NIC,
here is a clue for solving the pair situation: that's my view: by having the big picture or history, one can locate opportunity, a picture worth a 1000 words.
take a look:
without looking at the 4hrs chart, I can expect a pull back to resistance since the macd is quite high or overbought. but one can make his own conclusion by looking first at direction of the trade and using the 4hrs macd strategy wait for an opportunity to get in.

There is a W shape on the monthly chart, right a the bottom of a long time consolidation period, if it breaks it, one should expect the same range up.
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Yvon
  • #28,903
  • Jul 1, 2015 11:38am Jul 1, 2015 11:38am
Quoting nic73
USDCAD 30 June 2015, Tuesday Took a late entry on this. Woke up fro my sleep to realise that price has breached the neckline. It look to me a sHs pattern before the neckline was breached. Target is about 57 pips away from entry. Right now about 10 pips gained. Will see what happen in the later hours. {image} Update on USDCAD (10 hours after trade entry): Trade stopped out at 1.2363 level for a lost of 46 pips! This is at around 21ema. ATR to 73-91 pips but I didn't use that as a guideline to stop loss as I felt it was too high. Do leave me your...
on the USDCAD:
Hi Nic ,

The ATR set at 1 is a good reference to set the SL. Phillip Nel mentioned it. It happens again to me that the SL is being hit. And every time I feel terrible! This is my weakness! I just dont get it right every time!
But I found out that it is the best idea is to fix the SL a bit above the ATR value. This way my trade should be safe because that value shouldnt be broken since thats the average range done by the pair for that period. If ATR shows 100, then 125 or so I use. But first I look at the target and ATR to see if it sound good to open a trade there(R/R), and this is done very rapidly: does it worth it or not? If not a firm yes then I dont trade.

I took a trade in USDCAD as example:
I look at ATR first to see if it worth it:
ATR is about 150/165!
I look at the chart:
What is the history so I can see the rhythm, the resistance, the supports, etc? the big picture history can bee seen on the daily or weekly or monthly: just like on the AUDNZD.



I can see many things in there on the CAD:
A big SHS and a small one
I see a past consolidation that the pair found a way to get back in now.
I see also a very good example that the markets tend to duplicate since there is 2 rectangles with the same range.+the pair is above 62.8%fib
there is 2 targets possible due to 2 inverted HS. The target is set to be the high reached on mid-march 2015(1.2800) for the small HS. And at this level it only represent half way to the uptimum target which is 1.3180, which is the larger HS Sure if you look at the chart, there are 1.26300, then 1.2700 which are the target as per the rules. And I am sure counting on those progressive reachable targets. Market could change and I should act accordingly as per the rules.
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Yvon
  • #28,904
  • Jul 1, 2015 3:14pm Jul 1, 2015 3:14pm
MONTHLY
AUD/USD PAIR.

Keep a close watch if you are trading this pair.
I had a nice ride to the south of +60pips today. But Longer term, even from the daily shows that we are most likely to be heading North...Please do not pull the trigger based on anticipation, wait for tested and trusted setup before you execute...wish you all a nice ride when it will happen.

Trade like a sniper!!!
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  • #28,905
  • Edited 3:28pm Jul 1, 2015 3:22pm | Edited 3:28pm
DAILY: AUD/USD
Showing a strong reversal pattern to the north.
The trade you can see below, was the one that ran for +60pips to the south today. It has been closed already. But I just use this chart (I have snapped it early today)since my trading platform is not up now to show my anticipation of a trend reversal to the north in the future.
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  • #28,906
  • Jul 1, 2015 3:43pm Jul 1, 2015 3:43pm
AUD/USD: Additional Info:

As clearly seen in the monthly chart I have posted above.
Assuming the pair break out to the south, I will be trading the area I have marked out with those two pink boxes.

Thanks!
  • #28,907
  • Jul 1, 2015 3:46pm Jul 1, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting naustingfx
AUD/USD: Additional Info: As clearly seen in the monthly chart I have posted above. Assuming the pair break out to the south, I will be trading the area I have marked out with those two pink boxes. Thanks!

nicely said!
Yvon
  • #28,908
  • Jul 1, 2015 8:51pm Jul 1, 2015 8:51pm
Thanks Yvon on your replies.

Nic
  • #28,909
  • Jul 1, 2015 10:15pm Jul 1, 2015 10:15pm
Quoting nic73
Thanks Yvon on your replies. Nic
you are welcome nic!
Yvon
  • #28,910
  • Jul 7, 2015 5:07am Jul 7, 2015 5:07am
nice classical pattern today for the EUR-JPY, although as range bars chart for clearer picture.
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  • #28,911
  • Jul 7, 2015 9:03am Jul 7, 2015 9:03am
EURUSD traded on 6th July. Still in the trade of about 115 pips gain. Took the trade on the H4 time frame after a pull back to 21ema which was also where the Nickline from the Daily time frame is. There is a sHs on the Daily TF and that gave me the confidence to take the trade - in my humble opinion. Please leave your comments. And correct me in areas that need so. Thanks.
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  • #28,912
  • Jul 7, 2015 9:06am Jul 7, 2015 9:06am
USDCAD traded on 6 July 2015. Still in trade and at a 120 pips gain.

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  • #28,913
  • Jul 14, 2015 11:22pm Jul 14, 2015 11:22pm
hi phillip

MACD`s Level of importance and how to use them is your strategy?

tanks
  • #28,914
  • Edited 9:37am Jul 15, 2015 9:21am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting trademin
{quote} This is how I see it: you should probably expect a pull back, SL , my guess, I would go with the ATR , 1.2335 aprox. {image} {image}
the USDCAD have reached one target 1.2900, grabbing pips on the way. Another target :1.3400 is not for tomorrow morning , but in the cards to be aiming at... will see...
EURUSD: just broke the neckline on the 4 hres chart and target aiming at 1.0700, wil see...

AUDUSD: Broke the neckline a while ago, I was expecting a pullback to it, but a consolidation is now in play well below the neckline! the target could eventually reach .7000 will see...
Yvon
  • #28,915
  • Jul 18, 2015 4:27pm Jul 18, 2015 4:27pm
EurJpy: 4HOUR CHART

I took this trade on Friday. I have allowed it to sleep over the weekend. I do not do that always.
I see some nice potentials for further down moves by next week. I hope nothing changes the story...
Wishing you all happy trading for the week ahead.
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  • #28,916
  • Edited 4:47pm Jul 18, 2015 4:39pm | Edited 4:47pm
EurJpy: 4 HOUR CHART

I was not around to adjust the stoploss. But what I have indicated the actual place/level for which I will be adjusting my stoploss to by monday.

I should have entered earlier, but I was not there on time in front of my computer. But I still took the late entry option as I see a strong potential for a down move for the time being...

Profit target is at the 50% Fibonacci level.

I hope some one benefits from this.

Comment: So if the move continues on Monday to the south, one can still take an short trade to be part of the move to the south, and to the 50% Fibo when a nice setup appears. Even on a smaller time frame like M5 or M15, one can get involved in the market heading to 50% level. If the move to the south continues by next week, we still have +80pips to profit target...So if you have got a very nice (tested and trusted) smaller time frame strategy, nothing stops you from getting your own piece of the "pie".

Success!!!
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  • #28,917
  • Jul 18, 2015 4:55pm Jul 18, 2015 4:55pm
AudUsd: 4 HOUR CHART

I am here too. It was a late entry too (+15pips late). I the potential for a down move was there, so I jumped in based on sound rules.

I have shown the supposed entry level, which is based on the 1hr early entry technique that we use here. But I was not live to take the trade then.

First profit target is at the bottom trend line (brown trend line), then other targets is based on analysis on the daily time frame.

Success!!!
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  • #28,918
  • Jul 20, 2015 12:17am Jul 20, 2015 12:17am
AudUsd: 4 HOUR

The trade slept over the weekend as I have explained above...the potential for a strong down move was there, therefore I gave and still giving my position room to run.

Update: I have adjusted my stoploss to breakeven (BE).

Profit Target 1: As explained above, my partial profit taking has been met (the bottom (brown) trend line). But I have set stop loss to BE.

Profit Target 2: This is according to the daily time frame which is at the 127% Fibonacci extension, and price got ALMOST there with that long tail as seen in the chart below. So for now, I am a little bit skeptical about movement to the south...but to be on the safe side, I have set my stoploss to BE, and if price begins to turn against me or movement becomes sluggish, It is very likely that I will close the trade...
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  • #28,919
  • Jul 20, 2015 8:27am Jul 20, 2015 8:27am
Quoting naustingfx
AudUsd: 4 HOUR The trade slept over the weekend as I have explained above...the potential for a strong down move was there, therefore I gave and still giving my position room to run. Update: I have adjusted my stoploss to breakeven (BE). Profit Target 1: As explained above, my partial profit taking has been met (the bottom (brown) trend line). But I have set stop loss to BE. Profit Target 2: This is according to the daily time frame which is at the 127% Fibonacci extension, and price got ALMOST there with that long tail as seen in the chart below....
I would pocket the pips already made. Divergence is seen on 4hr, daily and weekly time frame. Also, the momentum on the H4 time frame looks weak. On monthly, a 3rd little sister (reverse) could be forming which also looks like inverted sHs. I could be wrong on sHs but the divergence is obvious.
  • #28,920
  • Jul 20, 2015 4:40pm Jul 20, 2015 4:40pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} I would pocket the pips already made. Divergence is seen on 4hr, daily and weekly time frame. Also, the momentum on the H4 time frame looks weak. On monthly, a 3rd little sister (reverse) could be forming which also looks like inverted sHs. I could be wrong on sHs but the divergence is obvious.
Great insight from you!
Thank you brother!
I left with some pips. For sure I never desired to lose any pips on that deal. It ran +70pips in my favour before turning around. I was asleep and did not take profits. But as I explained above, the 1st profit target was at the bottom brown trend line.

Thanks!
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