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AUD/USD

  • #91,081
  • Jul 7, 2015 3:50am Jul 7, 2015 3:50am
Quoting Erebus
Fundamentals: The USD remains the strongest currency in the longer term. The market is expecting the Fed to raise rates around September. Recent NFP readings have been positive and core inflation has, overall, been trending higher. Although we expect bullish sentiment on the dollar to remain in the near term, it is near its long-term highs against many counterparts and therefore may be susceptible to pullbacks such pullbacks will likely provide buying opportunities. The recent FOMC statement showed the Fed are on track to raise rates in the context...
Nice post!

In my opinion the only thing missing on USD side analysis is China - systemic failure in China could be a much greater threat to worldwide financial stability than the Greek shenanigans and could lead to greater weakness for USA than it does for Australia.

With Australia's dependence on China as a market for their raw resources and USA's international conglomerates dependent on Chinese manufacturing a major slowdown and consequent recession in China could turn the AUDUSD pair into a living hell

Important to note your analysis for AUD applies pretty much back-to-back on NZD as well, for anyone not informed of this fundamental long-term correlation
  • #91,082
  • Jul 7, 2015 4:23am Jul 7, 2015 4:23am
Quoting HareshBM
{quote} AUDUSD drops back below 0.7600 mark. Barring a slight scepticism coz of a trading holiday in the US, the weakness is more likely to continue dragging the pair. With RBA scheduled to announce it monetary policy decision on Tuesday, I would bet aggressively for a continuation of the downward trajectory towards testing sub-0.7400 mark in the very near-term...
AUDUSD fast approaching my target area near 0.7400 mark...
  • #91,083
  • Edited 4:48am Jul 7, 2015 4:31am | Edited 4:48am
Quoting alexpi
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post8206388 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post8206398 With the break of the Weekly TL my view for a possible trip to Monthly TL (extended target with first target at ~0.84 before correction happens) remains the same, but after 25 days of failure to break up there's a chance of printing a bull+bear trap into 0.749 before the move up occurs. Take care Edit: Also the move up, when/if it does happen could be cut short by the FED raising rates in September,...
Trading according to this view; started buying AUD last night, got 2 positions (0.7484 and 0.7435) and looking for an engulf of the last 4-hour candle in order to close 1 and hold the other. Otherwise just gonna scrap them both in 3 hours and wait for a better location to trade

Ideally we should see an engulf of last week's candle this week with a close at 0.763 or higher for long trades to start being viable, targeting 0.82 and 0.88

These trades won't be viable because of AUD strength but rather because of USD weakness as September plans for rate hikes start falling through.
  • #91,084
  • Jul 7, 2015 5:12am Jul 7, 2015 5:12am
Quoting fxtrader08
{quote} Maybe we should be short? http://www.forextell.com/citifx-tech...-short-audusd/
Looks to me like a long AUD USD and long EUR USD....get your tickets for the Crazy Train..... all aboard....
  • #91,085
  • Jul 7, 2015 5:23am Jul 7, 2015 5:23am
looks to me more of everybody running cover in USD, even gold is not moving in view of greece crisis.
  • #91,086
  • Jul 7, 2015 6:06am Jul 7, 2015 6:06am
these USD bulls are going to get slaughtered. I did not see such a fall today in aussie in the wake of rising iron ore prices and rising stock markets. checking the monthly I can't see how the downside targets are to be calculated now since there is not a single monthly closing decisive candle in green since May 2014. The upside if any is being hampered by the idiot stevens who comes out with his blabber mouth every 2 weeks and brings down the aussie.

anyone has targets on upside/downside from here
  • #91,087
  • Jul 7, 2015 7:52am Jul 7, 2015 7:52am
Quoting giveachance
these USD bulls are going to get slaughtered. I did not see such a fall today in aussie in the wake of rising iron ore prices and rising stock markets. checking the monthly I can't see how the downside targets are to be calculated now since there is not a single monthly closing decisive candle in green since May 2014. The upside if any is being hampered by the idiot stevens who comes out with his blabber mouth every 2 weeks and brings down the aussie. anyone has targets on upside/downside from here
blah blah blah

just sell the aussie dude

use hedge if u are scared

like what i do now, hedging all the way until it forms a ''visible'' bottom around / above 0.70 zone

no sl no tp, just hedge it
  • #91,088
  • Jul 7, 2015 8:07am Jul 7, 2015 8:07am
Quoting raiders
keep looking down next week
  • #91,089
  • Jul 7, 2015 8:12am Jul 7, 2015 8:12am
Quoting amikaking
{quote} blah blah blah just sell the aussie dude use hedge if u are scared like what i do now, hedging all the way until it forms a ''visible'' bottom around / above 0.70 zone no sl no tp, just hedge it
hedging is an idiot's game. what abt the losses you are carrying on your books. if you have started hedging from 0.80 it is fine but if you are telling me that if you have hedges from 0.90 then you are an idiot. hedging is giving free money to the broker. main issue with hedging is when to exit either buy or sell. at some stage you are stuck and both get chopped
  • #91,090
  • Edited 9:20am Jul 7, 2015 8:39am | Edited 9:20am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} hedging is an idiot's game. what abt the losses you are carrying on your books. if you have started hedging from 0.80 it is fine but if you are telling me that if you have hedges from 0.90 then you are an idiot. hedging is giving free money to the broker. main issue with hedging is when to exit either buy or sell. at some stage you are stuck and both get chopped
hedging is an idiot game? don make me laugh u newbie

if hedging is idiot then Soros is an idiot too, those big hedge fund institutions are idiots too

hedging is another form of risk management similar like using SL but it doesn't

u say if i hedge from 0.90 and till now currently 0.74, total 1600 pips using total 0.1 lot, based on my broker 2-pips spread, guess how much im losing?

say: buy entry 0.9000 @ 0.05 lot
sell entry 0.8998 @ 0.05 lot

im losing only $ 2.xx, based on spread cost and the minor difference when i open simultaneous buy and sell at the same time

the loss is only $ 2 and u can't afford that??? LMAO, if u can't afford losing $ 2 then u shoudnt even trade forex u little coward

if aussie stage a new recovery in future after it bottomed out temporarily around 0.7000, i would close out my sell hedge and let the buy hedge continue to run

the only reason u say hedging is idiot game is because
1. u are either too lazy to do research on hedging
2. u did not use your brain to think the logic behind hedging
3. u are simply being over SHORT-SIGHTED short term punter who over-leveraged and went into margin call (when) u hedge, and said that hedging is not working

luckily im kind enough to share u some links below for u to research, take it as a lesson before u wish to post any crap replies

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post7499677

http://www.valforex.com/2014/08/fore...e-profits.html
  • #91,091
  • Edited 9:12am Jul 7, 2015 8:56am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting giveachance
these USD bulls are going to get slaughtered. I did not see such a fall today in aussie in the wake of rising iron ore prices and rising stock markets. checking the monthly I can't see how the downside targets are to be calculated now since there is not a single monthly closing decisive candle in green since May 2014. The upside if any is being hampered by the idiot stevens who comes out with his blabber mouth every 2 weeks and brings down the aussie. anyone has targets on upside/downside from here
u like calling people ''idiot'' and hence idiot RBA Stevens

i can see how desperate u are in trading because u are struggling to make pips and put the blame on Steven

it is not Steven who move the market anyway, and the only reason u said he is idiot is because u are losing money

and the reason u are losing money is because u don't know how the market works just by looking at past 'monthly candles in May' and use 'can't see downside target' lame excuses like this

oh if traders could see the downside targets then i would rather sell 10 lots or even 100 lot given enough capital margin to TP that sure reach ''target'' and become a multi milionaire myself in few months

another FF newbie, sad

p.s. at the time of writing Aussie is posting fresh lows on 0.74, in contrast to what u said '' i did not see such a fall today in aussie blah blah crap ''
  • #91,092
  • Jul 7, 2015 9:26am Jul 7, 2015 9:26am
And bought some more at 0.7400, let's see how far down can the market makers take the price.
  • #91,093
  • Jul 7, 2015 9:38am Jul 7, 2015 9:38am
open second hedge here from round number 0.7400

im using a 1:1000 leverage mini account with only $29 but the hedge loss from spreads is relatively low, given high margin % left in the capital

is hedging really that risky?

go think about it
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  • #91,094
  • Jul 7, 2015 10:42am Jul 7, 2015 10:42am
Quoting SkyrEk
Hi all, While many traders are bearish on the AUD, do be cautious as it is in oversold territory. A bounce could be expected in time to come. (Not forgetting FOMC statement in the later part of the week which could be bearish for the dollar as they have no fixed timing for rate hikes) Good week ahead!

and the Aussie bounces off .74 .

As expected, getting outta oversold territory. Long term definitely bearish, but a short squeeze could run over many Aussie bears.

Stay safe and trade well!
  • #91,095
  • Jul 7, 2015 11:22am Jul 7, 2015 11:22am
dont understand why anyone would want to jump in front of a train but do you.

anyways might load up again soon.

UUP seems to have broken though the top of the flag. BUY USD to those thinking otherwise dont listen to some dude on the web just look at the chart

.7050 might not be that far away

good luck everyone
  • #91,096
  • Jul 7, 2015 11:51am Jul 7, 2015 11:51am
Markets move in one direction if you are a long term trader. However, short term wise, market doesn't move down in one straight line. There is bound to be corrections whether one likes it or not. Just saying.

Best is to ride the waves and not pick tops/ bottoms.

Cheers!
  • #91,097
  • Jul 7, 2015 2:33pm Jul 7, 2015 2:33pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} and the Aussie bounces off .74 . As expected, getting outta oversold territory. Long term definitely bearish, but a short squeeze could run over many Aussie bears. Stay safe and trade well!
Happening now, short squeezes comes swiftly and we are approaching opening levels all over again.
  • #91,098
  • Jul 7, 2015 3:05pm Jul 7, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Happening now, short squeezes comes swiftly and we are approaching opening levels all over again.
Looks like AUD USD is going up....time to get your ticket for the Crazy Train..... Alll aboardddddddddddddd....
  • #91,099
  • Jul 7, 2015 3:08pm Jul 7, 2015 3:08pm
FXCM retail sentiment shows 77% of positions are LONG on AUDUSD:
Im not sure how many out the 200,000 retail accounts are involved, but FXCM is one of the largest in the world. Every 1 Short there is 3.3 long
This is very very bearish.
Im comfortable trusting a 60/40 ratio. Usually.

AUDUSD is so bearish. Fundamentally. Technical Patterns. Momentum. Sentiment.
that Im a bit nervous that it could be very bullish.

Im short pretty heavy (trade ex shows only a day, but Iv been in and out a week+)

Be careful going long. As its a screaming sell with a lot of potential for a 400-500 pip drop.
Be careful going short. you could be overly biased like myself
  • #91,100
  • Jul 7, 2015 3:42pm Jul 7, 2015 3:42pm
So many angry people in here

China's bubble is bursting and the worldwide systemic failure/second dip is just around the corner. The next half a decade will be madness, but the crazy times aren't even here yet, chill out guys.

Here's a nice one for lights out
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