News trading discussion - continuation

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Statistics fueled the next RBA meeting July 7, 2015

Australian statistics this week order annoy AUD: concerns are confirmed by the IMF, the dynamics of the economy is shrinking. Before the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, July 7, this trend could trigger further easing measures by the regulator.
Retail Sales: 0.3% vs. 0.5% forecast.
Trade Balance: - $ 2.7 billion. vs. forecasted -2.2 $
Stevens (RBA): Alternative measures of monetary policy will be used for some time
IMF: The period of high economic growth in Australia is completed
The door, as they say, to reduce interest rates open and drafty, well, did not give it to close.
... While we focus on the word note "until" the analysts do not put in the official forecasts of lower interest rates, as of Friday, have 2% in the forecast. It is possible that the forecast may be adjusted.
Watching the forecast and try to figure out before the publication of what is the percentage of probability of a rate cut Markets (but not analysts) lay in the price at the moment.
Recall that the RBA rate cut essentially stopped a number of factors and without reduction AUDUSD, as well as increasing the probability of% by the US Federal Reserve.

Monday
17:00
06/07/15
CA Business Optimism Index
(CA Ivey PMI), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when the trigger 10.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

On Sunday, Greece will hold a referendum.



The key for Greece is a referendum on Sunday. There is already a report which states that "43.3% say they will definitely vote" Yes "and 39.3% say they will definitely vote 'No'"
Just what is a "yes / no" is not entirely clear.
For example, recently (June 30), citizens protested "against" the claims of creditors.

Tuesday
7:30
07/07/15
AU Interest HOT!
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Tuesday
11:30
07/07/15
GB Industrial Production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

The new key date for Greece after the referendum.

The Greeks did not cease to surprise, they are once again lead lenders "nose": last week showed all the polls (or fed) hope (47% had to say 'yes' debts against 43% "no" / others found it difficult to answer) , but today we already have the official, disappointing for the logic of the EU, the results of Sunday's referendum.
61.3% say "no" debts.
38.7% still of sound mind and are willing to pay creditors.
Greece is now like a feast during the plague - in the memory we have more stories when in the midst of crisis, people took to the streets and celebrated the refusal to pay for the debts of its main allies creditor that pulled the country from 2008.
As if there was trouble when populist turns in power.
The referendum passed, and already there are such topics:
Greek Finance Minister resigned. Markets took Varufakisa resign as the positive message the ability to "facilitate" further negotiations.
Negotiations for Greece Eurogroup will hold on Tuesday.
Worried Swiss National Bank, as the situation with Greece pushing CHF up, recall that in January 2015 the SNB refused to bind to the euro, and lowered the interest rate - these actions were the prelude to the launch of the European QE by the ECB.
It seems that all the European leaders recognize the referendum and its results.
Spain is ready to negotiate (and it is another "P & G" for the EU, "the country's Pigs").
Germany and France to begin to discuss problems together.
The Bank of France - Greece's debts can not be written off.
July 20 becomes the new key date for Greece - to this day the country must repay the IMF debt by 3.5 billion euros to avoid a technical default.
As a result, we expect the new negotiations, and while it is not clear how the referendum still affected creditors and their "favor."

AU Cash Rate

In the morning it can be quite interesting. Official forecasts do not imply lower interest rates, but it's just playing into the hands of as markets lay 60% likelihood of further interest rate cuts.
There are doubts (and when they are not), that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not go one step reduction of the interest rate in July (at this meeting), because it can stop the already low rate of AUDUSD, who is on a six-year low, but this situation - this is a stick with two ends. Weak retail sales, cutting the trade balance, the problem of China, Greece, everything suggests that the RBA remains prone to further easing of its monetary policy as its main rate at the Fed's actions may not be effective.
Earlier, in June RB New Zealand went on an unexpected step of lowering interest rates. Interestingly, when this controller remains in more comfortable conditions than its Australian counterpart.

Thursday
4:30
09/07/15
AU number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Thursday
14:00
09/07/15
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
0% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
09/07/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

AU number of employed
AU Employment Change

RBA remains on shaky ground
On Tuesday morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 2% per annum, with the resulting minutes of the meeting we will see just two weeks later, July 21, as long as we can partake of such topics of his rhetoric:
- RBA believes that a further fall in AUD possible and necessary
- The policy of low interest rates will persist. We will support lending and spending.
- It is still expected that the Fed will raise interest rates by year-end
As a conclusion: the natural decline of the Australian dollar and expectations of interest rate rises in the US act as a deterrent for further steps to mitigate the monetary policy of the regulator.
China and iron ore
Fall of China's stock market, despite the measures taken by the People's Bank of China, as well as lower prices for iron ore are now (without "Greek factor") key factors of pressure on the Aussie. Earlier, the IMF has announced the imminent slowing Australian economy.
The data packet of the labor market
To release in the early morning on Thursday is scheduled the publication of statistics of the Australian labor market, which is an important and volatile indicators. The volume of its importance is comparable to the risks inherent to the nature of its publication.
Besides the fact that the data comes into the world with a notable delay, the package also has a number of indicators that could cause a conflict situation in the market spiking provoking quotes / sharp pullbacks.
The package consists of:
AU Employment Change
AU Labor Force Participation Rate
AU Unemployment Rate
The headliner, that is the key that shows the first pulse of the market, is a AU Employment Change. Following will be published Unemployment Rate and Labor Force Participation Rate, and that may cause a conflict.
Trading on this indicator - stick the two ends: releases can emerge as one key release, and different.
The last release in June 2015
The last release, June 11, 2015, came out with a traditional delay, but I think this "luck" - after the entire packet data supported the preliminary growth Employment Change:
AU Employment Change + 27K (deviation from the forecast of fact)
Labor Force Participation Rate -0,1% (no significant deviation at all)
Unemployment Rate -0,2% (as a positive deviation of the currency)
Accordingly, it is not necessary illusions of the last release, and count on the fact that a significant price movement caused only Employment Change.
Be careful, the indicator is not included in the guarantee of profit, we do not recommend for beginners who do not understand the pitfalls of the news trade.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

RBA left its key rate unchanged (2%)

Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia is still not reduced, since, in spite of the actions of the Chinese government, we see a drop in its stock markets - the main consumer slowdown Australian exports continues.
They say China could be dangerous in Greece and the IMF again urged the Fed to delay raising rates until 2016.

Dear vvFish, Many thanks indeed for the info. Fascinating!

Friday
11:00
10/07/15
NO The core consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when trigger points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
10/07/15
CA Number of employed GOOD
(CA Employment Change), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
45% probability trades.

Here's the price action for the GBP manufacturing production on 7th July 9.30am GMT.
My conundrum is choosing which pair to trade against. Clearly in this case, the one to have avoided was GBPAUD, but I was wondering if any of you had any strategies for deciding which pair or pairs to trade.
Thanks.

Stay with us and you will always be aware of the news trade.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

CA Employment Change

The situation is a neighbor (USD) for a pair trade.

Fed "noted" weak start of the second half for the US economy as a whole and reduces the GDP forecasts for 2015. Also, it was not without "vulture Greece", which concerned "some participants FOMC»: «the situation in Greece will lead to financial instability in Europe and the possible implications for the United States."
We recall that the previous White House experienced a relatively strong dollar, given the decline of the euro against the background of the Greek crisis, which could become even stronger, which in turn may delay raising interest rates.
IMF urges US to postpone the re-raising interest rates until 2016.
At the same time we see a "fresh" statements by the Fed, Williams, who believes that the events in China, Greece will undermine US growth is low. "Safe to raise rates sooner than later." Such is the philosopher.
Kocherlakota (Fed, without the right to vote): The risk that the Fed's target will not be reached until the end of the year (ed: and thus the bet on the place).

Imminent meeting of the Bank of Canada.

Next week will be a meeting of the Bank of Canada. Talking about whether it would be difficult to change the interest rate, or rather assume that it will be adjusted from the current 0.75% is not realistic, analysts do not believe in such a course of events. Nevertheless, the meeting is a red calendar date, as expected, that on July 15 will be reviewed quarterly report general expectations (inflation, growth).
This report and conclusions made by the Bank may be starting points for further development of market expectations. In view of this, we see that the Canadian statistics are now enjoys more popularity on the part of market participants.

Labor market.

At this time, which is rare, the Canadian labor market statistics published detached from the American Non-Farm, and is no less market volatility.
By analogy with the Americans should be more attentive to the conflict.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
CA Number of employed
Almost always left behind the indicator Non-Farm Employment Change in the US, thoroughly evaluate its statistics is very difficult.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (Employment Change)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (Unemployment Rate)
Reaction trading pairs in points
Comments
10.04.2015 28.7 0.1 34/65 The first part of the stable reaction, and 65, all with reaktsyai back. Hep 20
13/03/2015 4 0.1 14 No reaction
01/09/2015 0 48 -19.3 spike and sharp pullback EURCAD opposite reaction but then rolled back toward release.
05.12.2014 -10.7 0 Top 15 and 32 down EURCAD
07/11/2014 48 -0.3 43-50 EURCAD - pair falling
10/10/2014 50 54.1 -0.2 EURCAD pair falling
09.05.2014 -21 0 36 EURCAD the pair
08.08.2014 -19.8 0 48 Height couple
07/11/2014 25 0.1 Growth -29.4 couple
05/09/2014 0.1 -42 45-63 total growth of 60 n. 45 n roll back to.