The Really Useless Thread | Page 6796 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,901
  • Jul 1, 2015 5:27am Jul 1, 2015 5:27am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for session. We couldn't take the lows yet... News coming and given the short week in the US, these are the only ones for positioning for NFP. Direct impact expected. Inline or better than expected for a direct test of the weekly lows. Anything else and we will stay in the wide range area until tomorrow.... ---------- ------------- ------------ Meanwhile a final update of one of the pending charts updates from 2012. For those few still kicking in this business and following this long discussion... Like usual when posting charts....
...Superb chart....
The Chonchy
  • #135,902
  • Jul 1, 2015 5:29am Jul 1, 2015 5:29am
That was it ... good numbers and as expected we breached the lows....after a couple of weeks of a very dry spell, taking first intraday target at 1.108x ...

...nothing to see until NY.... Same trades, same levels, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,903
  • Jul 1, 2015 5:56am Jul 1, 2015 5:56am
Quoting sisse
For the record. Greece Finally & officially defaulted 30/06/2015. sisse
News from Grece: Mr Tsipras sent a letter to Greece creditora saying that his country is prepared to accept the conditions that were before discussion collapsed and he called a referendum on 5th July.
  • #135,904
  • Jul 1, 2015 6:31am Jul 1, 2015 6:31am
Quoting martinica
{quote} News from Grece: Mr Tsipras sent a letter to Greece creditora saying that his country is prepared to accept the conditions that were before discussion collapsed and he called a referendum on 5th July.
All I heard is that some journalist obtained a copy of that letter, but no proof... if Tsipras did, he just invented a whole new class of idiocy, manageing now to lie to both the the people of Europe and to the people of Greece.

Anyway, I've been following the parliamental debate in the german Bundestag, there is a very clear stance now: we wait for the outcome of the referendum. No way Merkel could agree to anything before the greek referendum AND not step down as a chancellor. Time for some of the legendary german bone-headedness thats been sorely lacking...
Fail better.
  • #135,905
  • Jul 1, 2015 6:57am Jul 1, 2015 6:57am
Quoting sisse
For the record. Greece Finally & officially defaulted 30/06/2015. sisse
FWIW I read somewhere that its not a default until the IMF declares it so. Atm they are only in arrears so the default swaps aren't triggered
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #135,906
  • Jul 1, 2015 7:10am Jul 1, 2015 7:10am
Is it really? Technically it did not because the 1.5bl to IMF by end of June went to arrears. If you are talking about missing payment as default then Greece did default long time back.
Quoting sisse
For the record. Greece Finally & officially defaulted 30/06/2015. sisse
  • #135,907
  • Jul 1, 2015 7:13am Jul 1, 2015 7:13am
Did not read your post, sorry i posted the same above
Quoting Banzaisky
{quote} FWIW I read somewhere that its not a default until the IMF declares it so. Atm they are only in arrears so the default swaps aren't triggered
  • #135,908
  • Jul 1, 2015 7:16am Jul 1, 2015 7:16am
Quoting Xxavier
Did not read your post, sorry i posted the same above {quote}
This is where I saw it

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...t-analysis-imf
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #135,909
  • Jul 1, 2015 8:07am Jul 1, 2015 8:07am
Without further surprises ..that was it for the day .... No break no shake. Lows barely held but held at the end .... nothing to see till range is solved. 1.111x only level to track for the roll & NFP play ....

sisse

--------- ------------- ------------- -----------

Quoting Xxavier
Is it really? Technically it did not because the 1.5bl to IMF by end of June went to arrears. If you are talking about missing payment as default then Greece did default long time back. {quote}
Here.... posted before the drama ....

Quoting sisse
.... euro tick below 1.124x and we are back in business. The "D" day ... we already have the technicality codename, it wont be a "D" for default but an "A" for Arrears.
Quote
Semantics really but when a country miss a payment to a public institution the rating agencies wont catalogue it as Default while the IMF doesn't have the world default in their vocabulary but "going into a arrears" for a maximum of 2 years ....
​
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,910
  • Jul 1, 2015 8:18am Jul 1, 2015 8:18am
Thank you
Quoting sisse
Without further surprises ..that was it for the day .... No break no shake. Lows barely held but held at the end .... nothing to see till range is solved. 1.111x only level to track for the roll & NFP play .... sisse --------- ------------- ------------- ----------- {quote} Here.... posted before the drama .... {quote} {quote}
  • #135,911
  • Jul 2, 2015 12:28am Jul 2, 2015 12:28am
Expecting a lower close by the end of the week for this sucker, watching 11544 for shorts (intraday)
075x is 300pips shy, sub 0953 leg would ease up things. I'm not saying it wont go higher before, higher the better R:R
[EURUSD 4H Chart]
Attached Image
  • #135,912
  • Jul 2, 2015 2:05am Jul 2, 2015 2:05am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
Expecting a lower close by the end of the week for this sucker, watching 11544 for shorts (intraday) 075x is 300pips shy, sub 0953 leg would ease up things. I'm not saying it wont go higher before, higher the better R:R [EURUSD 4H Chart] {image}
Good day wolf
My 4 hr is showing a possible 1.08 target but shorter tf charts showing a 1.11 and another showing 1.1180
I will not be trading today as what i use for trend direction is showing us in a chop zone . Will wait until that sorts itself out . I sat out most of last week because of greek thing and this could still be part of that .Maybe after us news a direction will show itself .

Good trading my friend
Peace
  • #135,913
  • Edited 3:43am Jul 2, 2015 2:40am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting build11
{quote} Good day wolf My 4 hr is showing a possible 1.08 target but shorter tf charts showing a 1.11 and another showing 1.1180 I will not be trading today as what i use for trend direction is showing us in a chop zone . Will wait until that sorts itself out . I sat out most of last week because of greek thing and this could still be part of that .Maybe after us news a direction will show itself . Good trading my friend
Good day, 1.08x is in its path, st bear norms are due as well; 1205 farthest, trying to long scalp here..
  • #135,914
  • Jul 2, 2015 3:03am Jul 2, 2015 3:03am
Still the same 1.1096 in play probably capping the intraday range pending further info. I'm dislocated from any new entries at these levels though there are good ones on a deeper dollar retrace maybe amidst payrolls volatility.

Smooth moves on the Kiwi and Yen with significant levels playing out with the quarterly close and the support of a particularly exaggerated dovish CB stance on the former.

Nothing to do but sit back and track the NFP for later. I've got 95.60ish on the dollar index to play the pullback on a sub 200k print which corresponds with the same old 1186/122. Otherwise I don't have the urge to daytrade this pair.
  • #135,915
  • Jul 2, 2015 3:10am Jul 2, 2015 3:10am
Quoting hathor
{quote} An other technical pattern, which can support our view: (Even if current pattern is not perfect and even if it fails, it can also support a bounce ('try') from current levels) {image}
There are 2 main pending topics open for me in this thread. One is the confirmation of the start of the mid term wave to parity [coming soon] and the other is this pending chart update which relates to the last short term swing(s) in play before that mid term wave.

Sisse never leaves a pending trading conversation open so this chart update is for Hathor that have been closely tracking it, sometimes trading it and some other time doubting it since Mid May.

---> From a purely Chart point of view T2 could finally be in play with the right NFP and with extra fuel from Greece if the referendum is clear it. However, can you spot the potential TA problem and early alert?

---> From a FA point of view, a truncated final wave is in play with the right NFP (via hikes) and to complete the leg of Greece defaulting (NOT the KNEE jerk reaction move but the proper sustainable move down).

Hathor, one more time, choose you poison time, I already have mine...

As always before...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sissewwedge.jpg Size: 34 KB


and after....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZigZagpending.png Size: 173 KB


GL and lets see if we can settle this pending discussion in the next few sessions...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,916
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:25am Jul 2, 2015 5:25am
...here we go for another NFP ...early report on a Thursday with US going on extended weekend and Greek noise in the background so expecting lower liquidity and therefore very sensitive markets if we go outside of the expected range.

----> On the fundamental side:

 

  1. Expecting a inline and little bit better than forecast NFP to confirm the solid trend in employment in the US. Since last FOMC, inflation has taken the driver sit as a benchmark for hikes so employment numbers will be a bit subdue if they come in the expected range.
  2. Only a very bad miss will send shockwaves across the board as it will caught market with the wrong foot making even more investors to move rates expectations from September to next year.

----> On the Technical side:

  1. As important as ever. First numbers after the FOMC and Q close and given the current price area there is an actual chance for a game changer trigger (TA wise)
  2. We have this Quarterly high in play (yes !!! this current Q). A positive overshoot breaking the 1.08xx handle will mark the high of the Q as early as next week.
  3. To the other side with a bad NFP with a roll above 1.114x opens a test 1.138x and will give bulls a one more try for a potential break of highs later this month ...

----> For the actual flows:

  1. Direct impact expected. An inline or positive will complete the test of current lows (1.097x) with just soft hands bulls getting trapped.
  2. An overshoot also direct play 1.108x -> 1.097x but will unlock 1.084x handle in a quick and share move feed by the Greek flows from early this week.
  3. A miss (or revision), opens the direct a zigzag chop move, a failed test of lows and the 1.114x for the roll. Only a decent miss undershot will unlock the direct play intraday 1.138x.

Given the Greek referendum in the background, any extreme move (especially to the down side) could be subdue via CBs and preemptive actions until next week ....

GL all

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,917
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:35am Jul 2, 2015 5:35am
That was it. A slight miss in the headline and in the revision. Unemployment ticking down, make it nice headline for Newspapers but not a game changer from the macro FA side .... For the knee jerk reaction a slight miss in play ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,918
  • Edited 7:16am Jul 2, 2015 6:50am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting sisse
That was it. A slight miss in the headline and in the revision. Unemployment ticking down, make it nice headline for Newspapers but not a game changer from the macro FA side .... For the knee jerk reaction a slight miss in play ... sisse
Is this price action confusing everybody? or is it only me?

Edit: looks like it's only me
  • #135,919
  • Jul 2, 2015 7:49am Jul 2, 2015 7:49am
yawning....the heat wave here must be affecting the markets....London decided to just go for a drink early and we are pretty much done for the session. NY will set the close of the week early today but pretty much nothing to see at these levels as expected ....

Quoting ws121
{quote} Is this price action confusing everybody? or is only me?
Here....

Quoting sisse

  1. A miss (or revision)[check], opens the direct a zigzag chop move[check], a failed test of lows [check] and the 1.114x [Prretty much completed...few ticks left] for the roll. ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,920
  • Jul 2, 2015 8:00am Jul 2, 2015 8:00am
Quoting sisse
yawning....the heat wave here must be affecting the markets....London decided to just go for a drink early and we are pretty much done for the session. NY will set the close of the week early today but pretty much nothing to see at these levels as expected .... {quote} Here.... {quote} sisse
yeah,,, I suppose when you're in profit, everything seems so clear, probably because you can digest events with clear eyes. But thank you for the reply. Appreciate your time.
11 traders viewing now