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  • #135,821
  • Jun 29, 2015 11:29am Jun 29, 2015 11:29am
Quoting ClinicalEx
11096 in play in my books (also 95.70ish on the dollar index.) It does look like we're here by virtue of the SNB so we can't disappoint them if it starts topping out. Let's see how it goes.
Relentless intraday trend so no dice and a reminder of the soft dollar following the last FED meeting. Levels have shifted on the pair and dollar index. Maybe even tempting to fade with the exhausted range but it's late and Monday so let's how it pans out later for the close.

I've got 1.1186 now on the pair for "momentum" down which just isn't coming today and it's just shy of the still significant 1.122. Dollar index support is at 95.42 (currently intraday breached.)
A hint of risk off right now on the side with the VIX rally along with the Portugese 10 year yields on the lrage out of the norm daily move.
  • #135,822
  • Jun 29, 2015 11:37am Jun 29, 2015 11:37am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Relentless intraday trend so no dice and a reminder of the soft dollar following the last FED meeting. Levels have shifted on the pair and dollar index. Maybe even tempting to fade with the exhausted range but it's late and Monday so let's how it pans out later for the close. I've got 1.1186 now on the pair for "momentum" down which just isn't coming today and it's just shy of the still significant 1.122. Dollar index support is at 95.42 (currently intraday breached.) A hint of risk off right now on the side with the VIX rally along with the Portugese 10 year yields on the lrage out of the norm daily move.
Good post. Agree with the analysis.
CBs are sitting in the buy side as expected before the weekend to avoid a uncontrolled panic. All contingency plans working so far but the party have't even started yet. We won't hold a default with the Q/M fkows realigning portfolios in the coming weeks...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,823
  • Jun 29, 2015 12:38pm Jun 29, 2015 12:38pm
Uffff. 1.123x taken.... Sidelined here... Tracking very closely as we are in maximum risk mode.

Second largest daily range in 4 years....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,824
  • Jun 29, 2015 12:44pm Jun 29, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting sisse
Uffff. 1.123x taken.... Sidelined here... Tracking very closely as we are in maximum risk mode. Second largest daily range in 4 years.... sisse
hi sisse
what is going on is it going higher?
  • #135,825
  • Jun 29, 2015 12:52pm Jun 29, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting MoEb
{quote} hi sisse what is going on is it going higher?
Panic knocking the door. Cbs sitting on buy and Greece officially defaulting (although still 36h left). Going higher? I am sidelined as mves are out of normal range and getting pump by cb so I am intrigue as most in the markets on how this is going to end... For now I made my bet on the gap and it failed quickly so waiting x the roll ...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,826
  • Jun 29, 2015 12:55pm Jun 29, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Panic knocking the door. Cbs sitting on buy and Greece officially defaulting (although still 36h left). Going higher? I am sidelined as mves are out of normal range and getting pump by cb so I am intrigue as most in the markets on how this is going to end... For now I made my bet on the gap and it failed quickly so waiting x the roll ...sisse
So what are we looking at really? If central banks are watching the markets and they see the euro getting too low, they start buying... so what will happen when greece defaults? Won't they just do the same and keep the euro above a certain level by agressively buying? Why exactly won't they allow the euro to drop, as it should?

If FED is going to announce rate hikes, the EURUSD will drop anyway, so it seems so pointless to "save the day" now...
  • #135,827
  • Jun 29, 2015 12:58pm Jun 29, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} So what are we looking at really? If central banks are watching the markets and they see the euro getting too low, they start buying... so what will happen when greece defaults? Won't they just do the same and keep the euro above a certain level by agressively buying? Why exactly won't they allow the euro to drop, as it should? If FED is going to announce rate hikes, the EURUSD will drop anyway, so it seems so pointless to "save the day" now...
Intervention is part of the contingency plans in place for Greece defaulting. They are in place to halt panic on low liquitidy in the short terml. they are not meant to hold the normal flows after the knee jerk reaction is passed....sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,828
  • Jun 29, 2015 1:04pm Jun 29, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Intervention is part of the contingency plans in place for Greece defaulting. They are in place to halt panic on low liquitidy in the short terml. they are not meant to hold the normal flows after the knee jerk reaction is passed....sisse
is it possible to break 1.1280?
  • #135,829
  • Jun 29, 2015 4:09pm Jun 29, 2015 4:09pm
...and we are rolling with a bullish close (uff unexpected with such a deep gap) after an epic day in the Euro. A quick review to keep track of all the developments:
Quoting sisse
---> Despite the drama, the key points are how markets will react in both the knee jerk reaction:

  1. The first and most important part is tracking the initial knee jerk reaction. A deep runaway gap play is possible with a opening below 1.104x [check]. The is scenario will open a very sharp move until Tuesday that will lead us to 1.073x in no time in pure panic mode (no retraces)[failure after 1.104x was taken back ...moved to case 2 after getting stopped out on the filled gap shorts]...

...

Quote

  1. The second alternative that is getting track is that the ECB will actively and aggrresivly intervening [check] on the buy side to offset the initial knee jerk reaction. This action is not sustainable for long but it will allow to play the 1.12xx [check] handle until the Q/M/W roll and then a organized move down [in play] ....

  1. The third scenario is having a small kicking the can with EZ governments and ECB unofficially extending the deadline for repayments until the results of the the referendum (next week) with the expectations that Greek [still open] people ....[quote]it will create massive volatility [check] in the next few days. A sharp knee jerk reaction (1.104x [check] and potentially 1.073x[failed] ) today until Tuesday and then a quick back to square one (1.12xx handle)[check] if Tspiras lost the vote...

[/quote] Not much to do at these levels, very Bullish close Techwise but it was basically artificially pumped by CB. Sidelined until further/final developments but aggressively looking for short on Greek default...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,830
  • Edited 2:00am Jun 30, 2015 1:10am | Edited 2:00am
It was the intraday failure at 1.1096 in my case that put me on the back foot. I anticipated an intraday range above (after the failure.) then a break down and certainly not such a large move back to 1.122.

The latter failed quickly with Asia and now 1.1186 in play again as we retrace our steps and see if yesterday's move can unwind. 95.42 is coming back into focus on the dollar index.
  • #135,831
  • Jun 30, 2015 1:54am Jun 30, 2015 1:54am
Good morning!

I apologize, I've been absent a lot in the last months, have started a small company and so don't find much time between that and a little trading on the side to post here...
But I just read that beloved Mr Varoufakis is contemplating to go to court if Greece gets kicked out of the EZ. That got me wondering (first of all: what is he smoking, but thats my first thought anyway with all things concerning the current greek government... so skip that):

I was of the impression that the 'Eurogroup' is not kicking anybody out, but that after a possible default and the EZ finally respecting the 'no-bailout-rule' (but in my view the negotiations are still far from over, this dead horse still shows some promising signs...), it would be the option of choice of the defaulting country to leave the EZ, in order to be able to start anew? What I mean: a defaulted country could stay in the EZ, they just wouldn't have any money to pay anything and no means to enforce any rules incountry (except by martial law) because which citizen would continue to pay taxes, etc, in such a situation? They'd be depending on crisis relief, etc., but wouldn't striclty HAVE to leave the EZ.

Or maybe I got that wrong? I would like to hear your opinions.

LD
Fail better.
  • #135,832
  • Jun 30, 2015 2:20am Jun 30, 2015 2:20am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Good morning! I apologize, I've been absent a lot in the last months, have started a small company and so don't find much time between that and a little trading on the side to post here... But I just read that beloved Mr Varoufakis is contemplating to go to court if Greece gets kicked out of the EZ. That got me wondering (first of all: what is he smoking, but thats my first thought anyway with all things concerning the current greek government... so skip that): I was of the impression that the 'Eurogroup' is not kicking anybody out, but that after...
He would base it on the requests by Eurogroup and other countries directly to ECB to cut the ELA on Greek banks, which is actually forcing Greece outside EZ. Under EU treaty, they are not allowed privileged access to financial institutions, including ECB.
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  • #135,833
  • Jun 30, 2015 2:59am Jun 30, 2015 2:59am
So basically the idea is to sue the ECB for not providing additional money via ELA? Because to prove a direct intervention by any government towards the ECB will be near impossible.
In a very twisted way that makes sense: by allowing ELA to rise to about 40% of the current greek GDP, the ECB enabled the eurogroup to continue negotiating. So of course they are responsible...
But the court would have to see that the decision in the governing council of ecb wasn't taken in due dilligence... good luck with that. The govenor of the greek central bank was part of that decision...
Fail better.
  • #135,834
  • Jun 30, 2015 3:17am Jun 30, 2015 3:17am
Quoting LarryDarrell
So basically the idea is to sue the ECB for not providing additional money via ELA? Because to prove a direct intervention by any government towards the ECB will be near impossible. In a very twisted way that makes sense: by allowing ELA to rise to about 40% of the current greek GDP, the ECB enabled the eurogroup to continue negotiating. So of course they are responsible... But the court would have to see that the decision in the governing council of ecb wasn't taken in due dilligence... good luck with that. The govenor of the greek central bank...
There was a direct intervention through media. Slovak FM and a couple others asked ECB on press conferences to cut the ELA. That's against the treaties.

Actually I don't care what he will do, just trying to identify on what basis they are planning to sue ECB.
  • #135,835
  • Jun 30, 2015 4:06am Jun 30, 2015 4:06am
Another frantic sessions made euro tick below 1.124x and we are back in business. The "D" day has come and more and more technicalities keep coming. Expecting wide and thin markets after London goes home (in the euro).

For now, There is 99.99% chances that Greece wont pay the IMF, however we already have the technicality codename, it wont be a "D" for default but an "A" for Arrears. Semantics really but when a country miss a payment to a public institution the rating agencies wont catalogue it as Default while the IMF doesn't have the world default in their vocabulary but "going into a arrears" for a maximum of 2 years ....

Whatever the case, the final act of this chapter of the Greek Drama starts today and ends next week with the referendum. We are finally going to get a default so sit tight and lets see how all the contingency plans work (so far so good).

Extreme volatility expected in the euro and in the markets in general so not a playing field for the trigger happy or the trigger shy ... Risk mode on.

Here, after the break back 1.124x, same trades, same levels same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,836
  • Jun 30, 2015 5:09am Jun 30, 2015 5:09am
Quoting sisse
Another frantic sessions made euro tick below 1.124x and we are back in business. The "D" day has come and more and more technicalities keep coming. Expecting wide and thin markets after London goes home (in the euro). For now, There is 99.99% chances that Greece wont pay the IMF, however we already have the technicality codename, it wont be a "D" for default but an "A" for Arrears. Semantics really but when a country miss a payment to a public institution the rating agencies wont catalogue it as Default while the IMF doesn't have the world default...
There's a good chance that there will be a meeting later today with concessions made from both sides after the puppet show of last few days and an agreement will be made without need for a referendum. Somehow all leaders have to play it hard negotiators in front of their people. So risk is more to the upside as EU didn't seem to care (go down) about the non-payment to IMF (Tsipras in his last night interview said that we will not pay until the creditors accept our terms by tomorrow evening - definite), but any positive news on an agreement could spike it up. DAX is already up since the news came out of Greek press.
  • #135,837
  • Jun 30, 2015 5:37am Jun 30, 2015 5:37am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} There's a good chance that there will be a meeting later today with concessions made from both sides after the puppet show of last few days and an agreement will be made without need for a referendum. Somehow all leaders have to play it hard negotiators in front of their people. So risk is more to the upside as EU didn't seem to care (go down) about the non-payment to IMF (Tsipras in his last night interview said that we will not pay until the creditors accept our terms by tomorrow evening - definite), but any positive news on an...
Yeap, I am following all the saga in the background. Lots of noise for a LAST minute of the last minute proposal going around the wires (even funny ones, like Turkey offering to pay the IMF to save Greece .., that will go down well in Greece...je je je ).

Well it was expected that both sides will start to soften on the ticking bomb about to explode.

For now both sides wont want to recognise who chicken out first but basically there is new confirmed last minute proposal from the EZ ("denied" obviously by anonymous twitters accounts) and there is an official reception of the proposal that the Greek government is studying for this afternoon ("denied" obviously by anonymous twitters accounts)....

----> Point is, first, this morning noise is nothing relevant for trading and second, as expected there is a confirmed new final proposal on the table for the next few hours ....

We'll see how the saga plays out in the next hours, a deal will just put as back to the same playing field we had before the talks broke up on Friday but given the circumstances, priority has the short term risk play in case of default ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,838
  • Jun 30, 2015 5:39am Jun 30, 2015 5:39am
So did you expect a 99.9% rejection or an accepted final new proposal?
  • #135,839
  • Jun 30, 2015 5:41am Jun 30, 2015 5:41am
It was just rejected as it was the same as before with pension cuts.
  • #135,840
  • Jun 30, 2015 5:43am Jun 30, 2015 5:43am
50 % of last day high and todays low correction happened now going down slowly again
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