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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,801
  • Jun 28, 2015 5:18pm Jun 28, 2015 5:18pm
Quoting sisse
As suspected since the pre open. Massive gap to the 1.10xx handle. Runaway gap in play [in play]as we cleared key support on the open (1.104x). LOTS of air at these levels and markets need to digest the open and the upcoming hours until Europe wakes up. Mild [and only for reference] level for the Asia session is 1.096x. A few of important things with this open [in order of importance]: This year high has been SET (officially on the Q roll this week but this is pretty much settle). Changing Short term outlook (days to weeks) from NEUTRAL to SELL...
Hello Sisse,

just one more practical question: so seems like we are in this risk mode trading. But what about the runaway gaps, which we have gotten now? You have any ideas how they act in this enviroment? Usually - no risk trading - they get filled pretty quickly. However, It seems to me that this time - they will get filled only after the risk game is over = i.e. after the risk leg pans out (if so). Would you agree?

Huge appreciation for your awesome updates (as always)!!!! Thank you
  • #135,802
  • Jun 28, 2015 5:27pm Jun 28, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hello Sisse, just one more practical question: so seems like we are in this risk mode trading. But what about the runaway gaps, which we have gotten now? You have any ideas how they act in this enviroment? Usually - no risk trading - they get filled pretty quickly. However, It seems to me that this time - they will get filled only after the risk game is over = i.e. after the risk leg pans out (if so). Would you agree? Huge appreciation for your awesome updates (as always)!!!! Thank you
A runaway gap "never" gets filled thats why its call "runaway" especially strong when the gap traverse a key support (or resistance). For the current one, default will kill filling the gap (except if the ECB intervene). The current levels are air, and nobody is trading at these levels until the knee jerk reaction and the default news get settle and digest in the next few sessions...then the real money will jump on board ... For now 1.104x as I mentioned since last week is the one to track/trade....

In any case, all markets open, futures equity markets getting hammered as expected but the real deal across all markets comes with Europe opens tomorrow morning until then....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,803
  • Jun 28, 2015 6:00pm Jun 28, 2015 6:00pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} A runaway gap "never" gets filled thats why its call "runaway" especially strong when the gap traverse a key support (or resistance). For the current one, default will kill filling the gap (except if the ECB intervene). The current levels are air, and nobody is trading at these levels until the knee jerk reaction and the default news get settle and digest in the next few sessions...then the real money will jump on board ... For now 1.104x as I mentioned since last week is the one to track/trade.... In any case, all markets open, futures...
Thank you, I stil got a lot to learn

P.S. EUR CHF seems like there is some SNB intervention going on as someone protects the 1.0311 cuz I doubt there are no sellers. Maybe what u mentioned

  1. "CHF (via EURCHF) will have major impact in case of bank crashing in Greece and capital controls. Look for sharp moves that will be almost guarantee answer by SNB intervening heavily in the market. Watch-out for wtf moments as clear signal of panic."

GN and hope to read your thoughts here in this super interesting future.

  • #135,804
  • Jun 28, 2015 7:15pm Jun 28, 2015 7:15pm
Quoting dudeFX
Hey guys...been living in the FF shadows..until now. Just wanted to jump in and say "Hello" and "Thanks" to the dedicated members. Definitely taking in all of the knowledge! Friends/Business Partners with fxjawn... What's up bud?!
yo what's up my brother... welcome... you will learn a ton here.. these guys are pro's
  • #135,805
  • Jun 28, 2015 7:16pm Jun 28, 2015 7:16pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You cant fool us Fxjawn has no friends...
lol so true
  • #135,806
  • Jun 28, 2015 11:25pm Jun 28, 2015 11:25pm
Quoting sisse
.... The third scenario is having a small kicking the can with EZ governments and ECB unofficially extending the deadline for repayments until the results of the the referendum (next week) with the expectations that Greek people will kick the current government out of power opening the possibility of a new extension by default until the end of the year.... the scenario is too feeble and depends on politics and not markets so it will create massive volatility in the next few days.
Regime change...yes, the screws are turning, the clock is ticking....difficult to trade a binary event that never arrives. Meanwhile, my sympathies to the Greeks....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,807
  • Jun 29, 2015 1:34am Jun 29, 2015 1:34am
Quoting sisse
{quote} A runaway gap "never" gets filled thats why its call "runaway" especially strong when the gap traverse a key support (or resistance). For the current one, default will kill filling the gap (except if the ECB intervene). The current levels are air, and nobody is trading at these levels until the knee jerk reaction and the default news get settle and digest in the next few sessions...then the real money will jump on board ... For now 1.104x as I mentioned since last week is the one to track/trade.... In any case, all markets open, futures...
it is going to fill the gap isn`t it a runaway gap?
  • #135,808
  • Jun 29, 2015 2:25am Jun 29, 2015 2:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Regime change...yes, the screws are turning, the clock is ticking....difficult to trade a binary event that never arrives. Meanwhile, my sympathies to the Greeks....
Indeed, the average Greek is going to keep paying the toll for the mismanagement of their politicians...

Default or not default, its pretty much expected to be irrelevant after the initial knee jerk reaction. I think (prolly most) are just tracking this event as a catalyst for the next major legs from September hikes not as a game changer itself.

Meanwhile, as expected lots of air at the weekly opening levels and we pulled back to 1.104x (and a bit more) to fill most of the gap to more rational levels for the european opening range.

Clear map already drawn for the very volatile next few days. Until the official default deadline is confirmed 1.108x -> 1.0840 with extension 1.073x for the intraday legs and momentum line on a tick below the current intraday lows. To the other side 1.123x will cap any attempt to go anywhere else.

Expecting lots of volatile for tomorrow official default and next week developments. Without any solution in sight, the referendum will be marked on how patience and calm the average greek remains. Any sign of ATM's running of cash and/or people getting angry because of the frozen cash could trigger real panic not only in Greece but in the markets (we have seen it every time in defaulting countries so keeping a very close eye)....

In any case, trading time ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,809
  • Jun 29, 2015 2:48am Jun 29, 2015 2:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed, the average Greek is going to keep paying the toll for the mismanagement of their politicians...
on Bloomberg was just the CEO of the Bank of Cyprus - they put on capital controls 2 years ago and still have not unwound them...I don't think many people in the USofA really understand how hard something like that would suck....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135,810
  • Jun 29, 2015 3:30am Jun 29, 2015 3:30am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} on Bloomberg was just the CEO of the Bank of Cyprus - they put on capital controls 2 years ago and still have not unwound them...I don't think many people in the USofA really understand how hard something like that would suck....
By the time the average Joe in Greece will realise that either could lost most of the frozen money or they will be converted in something else for 1/8 of its value ...its going to be too late...


Quoting sisse
A few of important things with this open [in order of importance]:

  1. Central Banks alerts triggered across the board. Especially SNB intervening [check] on the european opening and to a lesser extend (but still a slight chance the ECB if things get nasty)

Thinks are happening really fast. As expected SNB confirmed intervention in the market (no shit the deep pullback)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,811
  • Jun 29, 2015 3:35am Jun 29, 2015 3:35am
Quoting sisse
{quote} By the time the average Joe in Greece will realise that either could lost most of the frozen money or they will be converted in something else for 1/8 of its value ...its going to be too late... {quote} Thinks are happening really fast. As expected SNB confirmed intervention in the market (no shit the deep pullback)... sisse
Is there a certain level that SNB / ECB is tracking to determine if intervention is needed or what could be the parameters they use to determine "now is the right time"? Or is it the sudden sharp downmove/gap that triggered them to take action?
  • #135,812
  • Jun 29, 2015 3:39am Jun 29, 2015 3:39am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Is there a certain level that SNB / ECB is tracking to determine if intervention is needed or what could be the parameters they use to determine "now is the right time"? Or is it the sudden sharp downmove/gap that triggered them to take action?
I don't really know the technical parameters but the SNB has become so predictable and so arrogant in the way they intervene that it was widely expected.

We know the outcome of this, they are pumping the euro but when the oxygen tank exhaust the move down will be even deeper (as we have seen it many times with the SNB)....for now watch out filling the gap with a deep pocket player sitting in the bid .....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,813
  • Jun 29, 2015 4:17am Jun 29, 2015 4:17am
11096 in play in my books (also 95.70ish on the dollar index.) It does look like we're here by virtue of the SNB so we can't disappoint them if it starts topping out. Let's see how it goes.
  • #135,814
  • Jun 29, 2015 6:54am Jun 29, 2015 6:54am
Thanks to the SNB we filled the GAP. Back to square one on the initial knee jerk reaction. Choose your poison time for NY opening...

Nothing to do here now except see how it pans out...

GL all trading or planing to trade....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,815
  • Jun 29, 2015 6:57am Jun 29, 2015 6:57am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} on Bloomberg was just the CEO of the Bank of Cyprus - they put on capital controls 2 years ago and still have not unwound them...I don't think many people in the USofA really understand how hard something like that would suck....
I told my girlfriend yesterday, to try and spend the week on only $60 a day....her response is she thinks it'd be doable...

She spent that last night for dinner and drinks.

It's amazing to me that the banks haven't been burned to the ground already...Greek friends on FB are talking of an "awakening"
  • #135,816
  • Jun 29, 2015 7:12am Jun 29, 2015 7:12am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I told my girlfriend yesterday, to try and spend the week on only $60 a day....her response is she thinks it'd be doable... She spent that last night for dinner and drinks. It's amazing to me that the banks haven't been burned to the ground already...Greek friends on FB are talking of an "awakening"
Spot the differences? (if any) ...

Check from min 2:00 for a quick review of the copy/paste in Greece ...v scary the similarities ....

Inserted Video


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,817
  • Jun 29, 2015 7:27am Jun 29, 2015 7:27am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Spot the differences? (if any) ... Check from min 2:00 for a quick review of the copy/paste in Greece ...v scary the similarities .... https://youtu.be/xR2DyiFVpX0 sisse
A sad state of affairs for the everyday Greek worker.

If I was evil, and wanted to think of the one thing I could do to make matters worse...it would be cutting people off from their bank account.

I saw a video posted here once, showing the cycle of banks....how they take your money in order to "safe gaurd it" only to loan it out, in the hopes that everybody doesn't want their money back at the same time....and once they do, the bank doesn't have your money to give back to you....because they loaned it and it wasn't ever repaid.....so the populace burns the bank down, crucifies the bankers....and the cycle repeats....

We know what stage we are at.
  • #135,818
  • Jun 29, 2015 7:37am Jun 29, 2015 7:37am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} ...so the populace burns the bank down, crucifies the bankers....and the cycle repeats.... We know what stage we are at.
The main difference is that banks know exactly what they are doing while the Greek politicians are pretty much clueless right now...

In any case, heavy interventions keeping markets afloat till the official default (or not) confirmation.... however, one that is very hard to intervene in these cases is GOLD.... we already turned back up intraday for NY open so tracking very closely as not only key risk benchmark short term until we pass the drama but as a very yummy trade if you are holding (or planning to trade)....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,819
  • Jun 29, 2015 7:41am Jun 29, 2015 7:41am
is merkel gonna talk eur down or what?
  • #135,820
  • Jun 29, 2015 11:25am Jun 29, 2015 11:25am
Euro hanging with the fingernails (via CBs) the break dow. London going home after filling the gap in a flat zigzag move and minutes after we are getting the first official reports that Greece will dafault tomorrow...

Nothing to see here, sitting tight with same levels, same trades same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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