The Really Useless Thread

Hey guys...been living in the FF shadows..until now. Just wanted to jump in and say "Hello" and "Thanks" to the dedicated members. Definitely taking in all of the knowledge! Friends/Business Partners with fxjawn... What's up bud?!

A quick update on the never ending Greek drama.

We couldn't get the confirmation during working hours this week (who the fcks know why not) and the talking heads will confirm (or not) the deal during the Weekend (unbelievable the incompetence of the senior Greek politicians!!!!) sometime in the middle of a Saturday Summer day in BRUSSELS !!!....uff

In any case, all cards dealt for the euro. Locked and loaded in the euro. Nothing new to see from a TA or FA side, only waiting to see how it pans out.

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I (and most I would dare to say) have ignored the Greek last drama as much as possible. However, given the extraordinary circumstances on Greece defaulting and a volatile weekend for next week open it would be plain stupid not to consider the risk play this time and be prepare to ride it.

New risk in play with Greece no reaching an agreement over the weekend and "defaulting" by the M/W close. For the Euro:

----> On the fundamental side:

 

1. Greece defaulting is nothing new. After the initial knee jerk reaction, cutting the gangrene from a sick patience, it will actually be a relieve in the mid and long term for the Euro.

----> On the techicnal side:

 

1. This risk play is basically 100% technical and it has 1 only one level in play 1.104x. The play will be extremely important for 2 things:
   1. it will set the current Yearly High
   2. It will mark the start of the wave to parity (which will work out later this year via rates not via risk) unlocking 0.096xx as final target (mid term swing) with strong intermediate stops at the current yearly lows and 1.02xx before taking parity for the headlines across the world....

----> for the actual flows:

 

1. Well not much to do in terms of prepositioning except blindly gamble on a no deal and short blindly on the 1.12xx handle today.
2. As usual in a potential big mover and shaker, all short term levels will be raised for the Close today and only macro levels in play.
3. For the rest of the mortals, shorting as close as possible of 1.104x (gap down guarantee on the open on no deal) is the one and only one to get for the initial reaction for the fast leg non stop to 1.073x and then to final target for the knee jerk reaction at the yearly lows (+/- 1.047x).
4. All that massive range for a short term move in a matter of a few sessions is a very very very extraordinary case....but its a risk play and we haven't have one across the board since 2009....

Without further tweets, day is pretty much over on low liquidity and uncertainty. Not much to do as long as intraday micro chop zone is still in play (as expected since GDP numbers), failure to test 1.128x on the US opening range today will be telling....

I will revalaute positions before the close if we haven't move anywhere until then...

GL all in a trade or planing to trade ....

sisse

Sisse,

What kind of levels do you have in case of a deal? Can we visit 1,15 or is this out of the question?

Hi sisse, thanks for your valuable input.
one thing I didn't really understand: all short term levels will be raised. What do you mean by raised in this context? or is it a typo and you meant eraised instead? thanks, Andrew

the motorized surfboard made of cocaine was a brilliant idea. Welcome to the factory.

You cant fool us

Fxjawn has no friends...

me just waiting for the done deal, the relief rally in US equities, and the return to the rising rate fade

Sinse the level is already taken now, would that mean that the market is getting ready for a deal on Greece and the leg up is to be following?

Yeap, pretty much the consensus across the the board ...but even as much as we try to ignore Greece, is one more time in control of a potential knee jerk reaction this weekend ....until is cleared, the consensus play wont pan out ....we'll see in a few...


Lows tested as expected but the zigzag play to 1.128x looks very far and way out of range for today. Tracking very closely a roll below 1.118x, as it unlocks a direct threat to key 1.104x for the weekend no deal play unlocking the mid term swing to parity.

​
What level is taken down ????? ...

sisse

my bad, sorry. I read it 1.114x

Next time you do this let me know.

Given the extraordinary set of events this weekend most traders have been forced to track markets on a Sunday ...I've never been in FF on a weekend but I am guessing most (if not all) serious traders here are also wondering how the fck the market is going to open. So sadly my weekend has been interrupted early to track the drama unfolding when the markets open today.

In an action packed weekend the dominos are starting to fall in the never ending Greek drama. The big and only question is if all the measures and contingency plans for the default are going to hold as expected of this is going to be more than a one-off knee jerk reaction.

----> On the news front, the amateurish (insanely stupid Greek politicians I would dare to say) decide to finger everybody (including their own people) and call a referendum on nothing except trying to hide their incompetence behind a "democratic process".

 

1. Poor Greeks are going to vote next week in a non existent offer that is already expired and with Greece already defaulted.
2. The scenario is so pathetic that the very technical and boring document is not even YET translated to Greek from english ... I wonder how any person outside of macro finance would even have time to digest or understand the complex technicalities on it, worst make a proper decision about it.... but that is irrelevant now ....
3. A extended bank holiday seem unavoidable to avoid panic in the streets (we have seen it before in Argentina and during the Asian crisis) now that the ECB is going to cut the life support. The problem with that is that it never ends good and the economy get completely halted and panic will start hitting if no solution is made quickly (imagine yourself one week without been able to pay anything in cash or make any transfer and your salary frozen in a pseudo paper currency with an insolvent bank!!!!)

---> Despite the drama, the key points are how markets will react in both the knee jerk reaction

 

1. The first and most important part is tracking the initial knee jerk reaction. A deep runaway gap play is possible with a opening below 1.104x. The is scenario will open a very sharp move until Tuesday that will lead us to 1.073x in no time in pure panic mode (no retraces).
2. The second alternative that is getting track is that the ECB will actively and aggrresivly intervening on the buy side to offset the initial knee jerk reaction. This action is not sustainable for long but it will allow to play the 1.12xx handle until the Q/M/W roll and then a organize move down ....
3. The third scenario is having a small kicking the can with EZ governments and ECB unofficially extending the deadline for repayments until the results of the the referendum (next week) with the expectations that Greek people will kick the current government out of power opening the possibility of a new extension by default until the end of the year.... the scenario is too feeble and depends on politics and not markets so it will create massive volatility in the next few days. A sharp knee jerk reaction (1.104x and potentially 1.073x) today until Tuesday and then a quick back to square one (1.12xx handle) if Tspiras lost the vote...

----> On correlated markets, all eyes on risk aversion underlyings.

 

1. Gold which is sitting in KEY support in the W close (as expected with such a risk play) and is one of the tradable ones with Greece defaulting. Its a one way, non stop to 1250.xx (tradable) anything above will point to PANIC across the board.
2. Bonds in the periphery. ​Although bonds has been relatively calm with all the Greek drama, all eyes on a spike in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland as a benchmark of potential contagion. Theoretically all checks are in place but now is real live testing.
3. German Bunds and Treasuries. Sharp moves are not expected via Greece. However, a fast and sharp run to safety will undeniably trigger panic and we will enter in Major leagues moves (not expected for now)
4. CHF (via EURCHF) will have major impact in case of bank crashing in Greece and capital controls. Look for sharp moves that will be almost guarantee answer by SNB intervening heavily in the market. Watch-out for wtf moments as clear signal of panic.
5. Dollar will be the king in risk plays. Sharp collateral moves expected in all dollar pairs across the board feed by run towards short term safety and equities cashing in, in case of unexpected selloffs in equities.

For now, nothing to see until Australia/ Asia opens. This scenario has been on the table since 2008 but now we finally seem to have a potential real event on the Greek front. All safeguards in place, all investors already digested the risks, all major players already abandoned ship before, all major speculator already place their bids so let the ball roll and see if the panic leg pans out (which seems unavoidable now except a last minute coup d'etat in Greece) ....

sisse

Thank you so much Sisse

aha, great analysis in depth as usual.

Probably the third could happen, ECB may un officially extend date until the referendum is completed. But until such time, the market makers could try to push the price down, but as you said ECB may intervene and try to stop the slide.

Seems the sensible option but the current Greek Government is defying common sense and is playing with fire. Lets not forget the current government is an extreme left populist government at the end...and politicians like them NEED, FEED, and SURVIVE by creating uncertainty to hide their lack of preparation and plans...

In any case, all confirmed. Bank/Stock market Holiday CONFIRMED.

Countdown to the open ....

sisse

Initial pre market open and some bucket shops opening with euro trading on a gap down (1.102x). To be confirmed when most of interbank quotes and brokers start opening within the next hour or so. Imminent runaway gap in play...

sisse

Have you short positions sisse?

No. I can't even place a trade yet.

sisse

As suspected since the pre open. Massive gap to the 1.10xx handle. Runaway gap in play [in play]as we cleared key support on the open (1.104x). LOTS of air at these levels and markets need to digest the open and the upcoming hours until Europe wakes up. Mild [and only for reference] level for the Asia session is 1.096x.

A few of important things with this open [in order of importance]:

1. This year high has been SET (officially on the Q roll this week but this is pretty much settle).
2. Changing Short term outlook (days to weeks) from NEUTRAL to SELL [in wide volatile ranges until we clear the 1,08xx handle]
3. 2nd time this year we have all TFs (long, mid, short term) aligned. The last time we got the 1.122xx -> 1.04xx leg this time is the mid term leg to parity (which is not via Greece but via rates later this year)
4. Lots of uncertainty and wide volatility expected. Asian session could even push it even further down (1.096x ---> 1,082x) on inertia given the imminent default (the actual news) until Europe "wakes up".
5. Central Banks alerts triggered across the board. Especially SNB intervening on the european opening and to a lesser extend (but still a slight chance the ECB if things get nasty)_
6. Lots of gossips expected in the coming hours but violence or riots when the ATMx run of cash by tomorrow and people start getting frustrated with their money getting withheld (we have seen it in almost every extended bank holiday in defaulting countries) could trigger real PANIC across the board so track closely Treasuries and stocks reacting badly (very badly)...meaning real sharp moves in equity markets.

For the rest, nothing new to see as the trading plan was clearly delineate last week so same levels, same plays and same all here ...

GL all and lets see if Greece default in panic or we get a one more kick in the can with the Referendum ....

sisse

yeah massive gap in EU. EJ down by more then 300 pips.