EUR/USD The Royal Flush | Forex Factory

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EUR/USD The Royal Flush

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 28, 2015 9:06pm Jun 28, 2015 9:06pm
Who is liking EUR USD long right about now? Is anyone going to ride the EUR USD crazy train to the upside? All aboard.......
  • #2
  • Jun 28, 2015 9:16pm Jun 28, 2015 9:16pm
Quoting Giganntor
Who is liking EUR USD long right about now? Is anyone going to ride the EUR USD crazy train to the upside? All aboard.......
Hahahah

i have learned my lesson so well i will never go beyond my boundary again


all have a nice day please
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #3
  • Jun 28, 2015 9:44pm Jun 28, 2015 9:44pm
I think it's going straight down the drain like the thread name implies.

Check back the end of the week for your 350 pips. Easy.
Enter Signature
  • #4
  • Jun 28, 2015 10:01pm Jun 28, 2015 10:01pm
Honestly, this month, I've made quite a bit on the long side. The last week has sucked, however. I was able to get out of most of my position--and not lose money--by Friday. However, I still had a small position going into today, which I got creamed on. I was also long GBP/USD, which I also got creamed on. But, I made a few bucks back, trading the volatility today.
  • #5
  • Jun 29, 2015 5:14am Jun 29, 2015 5:14am
Quoting MisterWhite
Honestly, this month, I've made quite a bit on the long side. The last week has sucked, however. I was able to get out of most of my position--and not lose money--by Friday. However, I still had a small position going into today, which I got creamed on. I was also long GBP/USD, which I also got creamed on. But, I made a few bucks back, trading the volatility today.
I wouldn't trade EUR USD and GBP USD at the same time. Although those 2 pairs are going the same general direction (downtrend) intra day and intra week they are going opposite of each other and whipsawing traders into oblivion-this is no coincidence. I only trade 1 of those pairs at a time for that reason.

GBP USD appears to have hit its upside target and is now poised for a move short with plenty of intraweek short and long volaitility as Greece continues to be a major worldwide news item.

Now that the Royal Flush is complete the EUR USD to continue its counter trend move to the upside for now with plenty of back and forth volatility as traders are getting trapped both short and long. The major trend is down with a look toward parity on the horizon.
  • #6
  • Jun 29, 2015 5:16am Jun 29, 2015 5:16am
Quoting Don M
I think it's going straight down the drain like the thread name implies. Check back the end of the week for your 350 pips. Easy.
Actually it looks like it is going up for now....
  • #7
  • Jun 29, 2015 5:44am Jun 29, 2015 5:44am
Tempted to go long but nah, fuck it. Made 103 pips from leaving my short open on the weekend I don't want to lose it all yet haha.

Don't go long man. It's too stressing. Plus wait it out and see what happens with the Greece repayment tomorrow
  • #8
  • Jun 29, 2015 4:20pm Jun 29, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting Dimi.A
Tempted to go long but nah, fuck it. Made 103 pips from leaving my short open on the weekend I don't want to lose it all yet haha. Don't go long man. It's too stressing. Plus wait it out and see what happens with the Greece repayment tomorrow
Yeah you keep shorting EUR USD......

All aboard.........
  • #9
  • Jun 29, 2015 7:35pm Jun 29, 2015 7:35pm
For those of us who know how and when to trade this gap down (or "royal flush") was just another opportunity. 100+ pips locked with a stop and waiting to see if there is more to come.

It is never an issue of will it go up or will it go down, it is only an issue of seeing where the buyers and seller are transacting and who is transacting in greater numbers or with greater volume. YES it is all done on the simple MT4 platform...no magic indicators or "gee whiz" look at that BS...just simple uncomplicated and OBVIOUS trading.
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  • #10
  • Jul 1, 2015 12:15pm Jul 1, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting Dimi.A
Tempted to go long but nah, fuck it. Made 103 pips from leaving my short open on the weekend I don't want to lose it all yet haha. Don't go long man. It's too stressing. Plus wait it out and see what happens with the Greece repayment tomorrow
Sorry Dimi but long it is....
  • #11
  • Jul 1, 2015 12:20pm Jul 1, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting Dimi.A
Tempted to go long but nah, fuck it. Made 103 pips from leaving my short open on the weekend I don't want to lose it all yet haha. Don't go long man. It's too stressing. Plus wait it out and see what happens with the Greece repayment tomorrow
Same view here my friend. I would rather stay out from it than going Long. Can't take the stress.
  • #12
  • Jul 2, 2015 5:53pm Jul 2, 2015 5:53pm
Quoting Mysterical
{quote} Same view here my friend. I would rather stay out from it than going Long. Can't take the stress.
The market makers want you to stay out. They want you to short EUR USD during the day when they are moving up and stopping you out so they can move down in the middle of the night when you are asleep. If you want to win the Forex game you have to do things that require courage.
  • #13
  • Edited 6:54pm Jul 2, 2015 6:43pm | Edited 6:54pm
Quoting gspajon
.. It is never an issue of will it go up or will it go down, it is only an issue of seeing where the buyers and seller are transacting and who is transacting in greater numbers or with greater volume. YES it is all done on the simple MT4 platform...no magic indicators or "gee whiz" look at that BS...just simple uncomplicated and OBVIOUS trading.
Nice charts/trades. I do find it a bit curious that you mentioned volume, yet it is nowhere to be found on the charts.

Anyway, I just wanted to point out a few things:

1. Some traders choose to use Professional/Institutional grade platforms, not MT4. I am sure you are not trying to infer that a professional paying $180.00 a month for MarketDelta, would not be able to make a similar trade.

2. Some traders understand what indicators do-they indicate. Sometimes they can even provide evidence.

3. I would argue that the below chart is OBVIOUS. Without getting too deep into what is going on, take a look at what happens from 1:00 on. So we are not even talking about the extreme volume on the 18:15 interval or the ultra high volume at 20:15 which comes on a BullPower Buying Aggression bar.

From 1:00 on we note that every Buying Aggression bar has (upside) follow through and is able to hold its low (no full bar below). We also note that there are no Selling Aggression bars at all. It's pretty OBVIOUS which side of the market is in charge-the bulls.

And of course, why contemplate longs when price is above the 50 period ema?
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #14
  • Jul 2, 2015 6:52pm Jul 2, 2015 6:52pm
Yep long and wrong ! haha was long'ing EURUSD all last week making money then held before NFP, went in my favor, not enough. Lets see how holding over crazy weekend holds out. I like the fact that most are on short train or nothing at all. That's when I make the money!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #15
  • Jul 2, 2015 7:17pm Jul 2, 2015 7:17pm
Quoting Giganntor
{quote} Sorry Dimi but long it is....
I'm happy with my 134 pips this week. It paid for the service on my Porsche and I still kept a bit of change for a big mac meal on the way home.
I'll jump in again later today on the 4H chart and sus it out.

Hope you're reeling those pips in too mate
  • #16
  • Jul 2, 2015 11:00pm Jul 2, 2015 11:00pm
Quoting Dimi.A
{quote} I'm happy with my 134 pips this week. It paid for the service on my Porsche and I still kept a bit of change for a big mac meal on the way home. I'll jump in again later today on the 4H chart and sus it out. Hope you're reeling those pips in too mate
EurUsd went up 45points this morning during NFP I hope you were in your " Porsche" watching your account go down...I think you work at McDonald's
  • #17
  • Jul 3, 2015 12:27am Jul 3, 2015 12:27am
Quoting Rtm
Yep long and wrong ! haha was long'ing EURUSD all last week making money then held before NFP, went in my favor, not enough. Lets see how holding over crazy weekend holds out. I like the fact that most are on short train or nothing at all. That's when I make the money!
I prefer the herd to keep shorting Eur Usd. I am sticking with the Big Boys..
  • #18
  • Jul 3, 2015 4:54am Jul 3, 2015 4:54am
Quoting Giganntor
{quote} EurUsd went up 45points this morning during NFP I hope you were in your " Porsche" watching your account go down...I think you work at McDonald's
Don't be a hater mr demo player hahaha. I exited and took my profits already boy. A bit here, a bit there (as you can see in my trade explorer).
Don't hate, appreciate.
  • #19
  • Jul 4, 2015 11:56am Jul 4, 2015 11:56am
Quoting HiddenGap
Nice charts/trades. I do find it a bit curious that you mentioned volume, yet it is nowhere to be found on the charts.
Thank you for the compliment...I was able to close with just a little over 200 pips on that trade. As I'm sure you know, the volume figures in the FX world are only tick counters and not "true" volume, thus I do not include it in my charts. You bring up several points that I would like to address individually.

Quoting HiddenGap
...I just wanted to point out a few things: 1. Some traders choose to use Professional/Institutional grade platforms, not MT4. I am sure you are not trying to infer that a professional paying $180.00 a month for MarketDelta, would not be able to make a similar trade...
I was simply trying to point out that not all traders can or want to pay the expensive price tag for "professional" charting packages. Indeed my point was that it is really unnecessary. For those of us who know how and when the trading platform is irrelevant. One can make consistently profitable trades using virtually any trading software...it is the trader not the platform that makes the trades.

Quoting HiddenGap
...2. Some traders understand what indicators do-they indicate. Sometimes they can even provide evidence...
Here is where we diverge in opinion. I'm not a huge fan of indicators anymore...and I believe I have tried virtually all of them including a few I wrote myself. I'm sure there are many here that will disagree...and that's OK...but I feel that any math formula that uses some variation of price to "indicate" a future price is insane. Its like saying that because I go to starbucks on average once a week, that this week I will also go once....what if I don't decide to go? or what if I decide to go everyday for a week? Using math formulas to predict trader behavior is just nuts!! And I'll leave it at that.

Quoting HiddenGap
...3. I would argue that the below chart is OBVIOUS. Without getting too deep into what is going on, take a look at what happens from 1:00 on. So we are not even talking about the extreme volume on the 18:15 interval or the ultra high volume at 20:15 which comes on a BullPower Buying Aggression bar. From 1:00 on we note that every Buying Aggression bar has (upside) follow through and is able to hold its low (no full bar below). We also note that there are no Selling Aggression bars at all. It's pretty OBVIOUS which side of the market is in charge-the...
Here you mention multiple times about buying "aggression". What is that exactly? Does that mean there are many people buying even though prices are moving to their highs of the day? If that is so, that is at the heart of what I am trying to point out. Of note is that each of the bars where you note "buying aggression" is also the point where shorts were stopped out...Those stops flooded the market with buy orders in those area and voila...a larger volume of buying ensued...naturally.

I try to resist imparting emotions to the market. I don't believe the market in itself is aggressive or passive, benevolent or malevolent. It is simply a machine that matches buyers with sellers....nothing more. The emotions come from those who participate, and since I can never know the emotional state of even a large group of participants I refrain from seeing it as aggression. I prefer to simply look as where the buyers and sellers are transacting and add my order to those in the same area (given my chosen direction) and let it go as far as it will.
  • #20
  • Edited 1:54pm Jul 4, 2015 1:14pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting gspajon
Thank you for the compliment...I was able to close with just a little over 200 pips on that trade. As I'm sure you know, the volume figures in the FX world are only tick counters and not "true" volume, thus I do not include it in my charts.
Thanks for the reply. I figured it might be something like that. There is no need to debate the value of Tick volume vs Actual volume, as it has been done ad nauseum.

Quoting gspajon
I was simply trying to point out that not all traders can or want to pay the expensive price tag for "professional" charting packages. Indeed my point was that it is really unnecessary. For those of us who know how and when the trading platform is irrelevant. One can make consistently profitable trades using virtually any trading software...it is the trader not the platform that makes the trades.
My apologies. In frustration, I was actually trying to make a veiled reverence to the Template/Platform Nazis over in the PVSRA thread. Many traders see MT4 as a toy. A free toy, but a toy nevertheless. I would certainly agree that a competent trader could use almost any trading software and make money.

Quoting gspajon
I'm not a huge fan of indicators anymore...and I believe I have tried virtually all of them including a few I wrote myself. I'm sure there are many here that will disagree...and that's OK...but I feel that any math formula that uses some variation of price to "indicate" a future price is insane. Its like saying that because I go to starbucks on average once a week, that this week I will also go once....what if I don't decide to go? or what if I decide to go everyday for a week? Using math formulas to predict trader behavior is just nuts!!...
If I may say, with all due respect, here you show a real lack of understanding about the nature of indicators. You are not alone in this. Indicators indicate and every indicator ever invented is 100% correct. Think about it. If one was to construct an indicator using a mathematical formula where x,y and z all had to be true for the indicator to turn green, or light up, or sound off, or whatever, then it must be the case that if the indicator is turning green, x,y and z are true. Now here's the rub. The fact that x,y and z are true has nothing to do with what the future holds. But the indicator is 100% correct, because it can only turn green if x,y and z are true.

Let's us a real world example of the RSI. When the RSI prints at 80, it is an absolute fact that all conditions needed to produce an output of 80 exist. The error is in assuming that a reading of 80 is "overbought" and thus reason to expect price to fall. So if price continues to rise, does that mean the RSI is wrong? No. The RSI is 100% correct. Based on the inputs given and the mathematical formula used, the computation derived is 80.

So do indicators predict? No. They only indicate. They indicate that a predetermined set of parameters exist, or don't exist, in the required proportions at that time.

Quoting gspajon
Here you mention multiple times about buying "aggression". What is that exactly?..... I don't believe the market in itself is aggressive or passive, benevolent or malevolent. It is simply a machine that matches buyers with sellers....nothing more. The emotions come from those who participate, and since I can never know the emotional state of even a large group of participants I refrain from seeing it as aggression. I prefer to simply look as where the buyers and sellers are transacting and add my order to those in the same area (given my chosen...
Aggression moves the market. It is the term used by order flow traders to describe a market reality. For every buyer there is a seller. What moves price is when one side is willing to transact at the other's price.

A lot of well meaning people often make a huge mistake when trying to explain why the market did what it did at any given time. They say things like, " the market went up today because there were more buyers than sellers". Or they say," the market went down due to a 'seller's' strike". These are completely wrong. The market's sole purpose is to bring a buyer and a seller together. Every price where a transaction takes place MUST have a buyer and a seller.

WHAT MOVES THE MARKETS, IS THE RELATIVE ENTHUSIASM OR AGGRESSION OF EITHER THE BUYER(S) OR THE SELLER(S).

Let's take a simplified example.

Suppose you want to buy a car. The price you are willing to pay is 50,000. The seller of the car is asking for 100,000. Now let's suppose we can't just split the difference and make a transaction at 75,000.

The car will sit there and no transaction will happen unless one of you is willing to move. Suppose you as a buyer see three more potential buyers coming. You may now have incentive to raise your price to 100,000. You are now willing to hit the ASK. This willingness is enthusiasm or aggression. The opposite could be true as well. Suppose the Seller becomes aware that another sellers of the same car is coming and is willing to take 45,000. The first seller would have incentive to quickly lower his price to 50,000. That is, the seller needs to hit the BID and make a transaction happen before the buyers gets word of the other car on the market.

This is what actually moves the market. Buyers willingly hitting the ASK will raise price and Sellers willingly hitting the BID will cause price to fall.

So while every transaction has a buyer and a seller, one side is AGGRESSIVE and the other side is PASSIVE. Price moves because of the aggressor.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
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