Trading is as simple as ABCD

I'm going to do my next post about the latest version of my strategy which I believe is about as good as it gets, my whole trading philosophy is very simple price is either going up or down or I'm not interested, simple as that, find a chart that is trending strongly one way or the other then enter in that direction, buy bottoms of waves in an uptrend and sell tops of waves in a downtrend...

Simple as that....

But what I'm always looking for is better ways to do that , better ways to find the trend, better ways to enter, better ways to exit etc etc..

Well I think I've found something very powerful to help me with my direction, my entry and most importantly I think I've finally found my perfect exit. Not a perfect exit in that it will always get me out at exactly the right time but an exit that will deal with my inner Demon , "The Fear of Missing Out" . I now have a definite exit plan.

I'm going to use a TMA indicator for entry and most importantly for exit..

But the reason for this post is not to tell you about my strategy just yet, thats the next post. No this post, I want to deal with the biggest issue that everyone has with the TMA the problem of it repainting so back charts are of little use to test this strategy as the TMA constantly repaints...

Well I thought theres no point in building a strategy around an indicator that basically can't be trusted so I had to deal with this issue first, so I've spent the last 24 hours checking this out. But how could I check this out if it repaints??

Well luckily I had posted loads of charts Friday with signals on them so I decided to have a look at todays charts and see how these signals differed from the ones I'd posted on Friday and I'm pleased to say my conclusion is that the TMA on a one minute chart doesn't appear to suffer any repainting issues or at least not enough to mislead me and the majority of signals at the time were still there on todays charts..

Heres one of the charts I used to check it out, this is the London Open on Friday and heres a chart I posted on Friday morning GBPNZD..



You can clearly see all the signals that morning that looked good at that time, now if there was any repainting going on then the same chart at the end of the day would surely show any repainting issues and many of the signals would not be there or even worst turn into losers..

Well have a look for yourselves, what do you think of the following GBPNZD chart the same time LO but at the end of the day when any repainting would of been done by now...I've marked the end of the morning charts candles with a red vertical dotted line so we can clearly see where that mornig charts candles end..



What do you see?? Any signs of repainting??? All the mornings signals look good to me and more importantly they still look good now after the close of the market..

Further proof can be seen from the very last signal on the morning chart that touches the lower band to give us our buy signal, looking at the latest chart and we can still see the signal there exactly the same as it was at the time when I posted the first chart.

I have done the same exercise on all my charts I posted on Friday with identical results , the only problem I did note was that the middle band seemed to have changed colour sometimes but I think that would keep me out of the trade rather than suck me into a bad one.

If you don't believe me check my posted charts out for your self put the template on that I posted Friday and have a look at the charts you're see next to no difference or at least not a significant amount to effect my results. I'm wandering why this is when its obvious that many very good traders throughout FF believe there is an issue with this repainting TMA indy , however I'm wandering if its because I'm using it on a 1 minute chart and lets face it how much repainting can go on , on a 1 minute chart??? Maybe hrly , 4 hrly and daily charts would make a significant difference but not on a 1 minute?? The repaints are too small to effect the signals???

I don't know for sure if these few charts are a reliable enough sample, but its made me feel very confident that I can rely on this TMA indy for my entries and exits but I will keep a constant eye on it and whenever I take an entry I am going to take a picture so I can review the trades later and in particular see if the repainting causes me any issues. I will be checking the TMA at entry and exit to check its performance.

In my strategy I use a 15 min TMA for entries and exits but cannot check the authenticity of these signals as I haven't been trading it long enough to know but again I will be checking it out going forward with particular regards to repainting issues.

But for the time being I'm happy to proceed forward testing these TMA indys...

Right enough said about the repainting issue now onto the strategy itself...

please can i get TMA indy indicator and what do you mean by repainting in your chat... thanks

OK its time for my newest version of my strategy but first I have to give credit where credits due and say BIG THANK YOU to Devontrader who introduced me to the Hurst theory of cycles within cycles. As we all know price is continually moving in cycles the 1 minute moves in cycles and the 5 min in bigger cycles and the 5 min inside the bigger 15 minute cycles and so on and so on.

Now I've always known that, in fact I've posted about it and its something that Martin has tried to hammer into me since time began. However, I was reluctant to listen so apologies all round I was so wrong not to hear what you guys have been trying to tell me for so long...

But thats all change now as I can clearly see where I should be trading the 1 minute charts and using my 1 minute trading skills and entries to far better effect by the simple use of cycles within cycles, so before I go on a massive thank you to Devontrader who eventually got me to listen to what everyone else has been screaming at me for as long as I can remember...

Thanks Devontrader...

Cycles within Cycles

First how do we find our cycles to trade?? Well I'm using Devontraders TMA indicator called FastTMALine to show me the trading cycle giving us the extremes of the price movements so producing a trading channel we can expect our price to move within. This shows us the extremes of our cycles or waves where we are best to enter our trades from. I did a full explanation of how to use this channel to trade on post 6689 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...90#post8348490
now all I'm going to do is use that entry system in my 1 minute chart within the cycles of the higher timeframe moves.

Ok so first chart with just our 1 minute trading channel on GBPNZD



Great looking chart isn't it? But how could we possibly of known it was going to fly down the page like that nearly 200 pips??

Well maybe theres a clue in our 5 minute trading cycle?? So lets add our 5 min cycle..



Now we can see that the move started when the 1 minute TMA met the top of the 5 minute TMA, this means we are now trading with the 5 minute traders helping us out.

But theres more lets add our 15 min cycle..in yellow



Now we can see all three of our TMAs have met up so now the 15 min boys are joining in too and the result speaks for itself.. 200 pips..

Now when all three channels(cycles) agree all sloping down and their upper bands all meet up , then we have a very high probability trade setup, we should enter on the 1 minute TMA upper band touches bank half on touch of lower band and hold half until 15 min lower band is hit... Now we're trading..

What this cycles within cycles tells me is the ideal spots on a chart to start taking my one minute entries where I can expect some bigger runs, so we have a 10 to 20 pip stop entry and some really big winners....

Lets have a look at these cycles within cycles with the chart zoomed right out and no price candles to confuse the matter...



Can you see whats happening here?? When the 15 min and 5 min and 1 min upper bands meet up its a high probability trade, just wait for confirmation with the 1 min TMA middle band turning red and away you go, enter on every 1 min signal bank half on lower band and hold the other half until 15 min TMA lower band hit.

One other thing to note is timing too, look when those two turns start?? Yep you got it just after LO and NYO..

Just look how the 1 min cycles within the 5 min cycle and how the 5 min cycles within the 15 min?? Unreal isn't it???

So heres what I'm looking to do, first of all I'm trading the 1 minute TMA channel from the top trending 5 min TTindy so I know I'm trading a strong trender but I'm going to be constantly checking my 5 min and 15 min TMA channel tops and bottoms for entries and exits...

I'm convinced this is it for me, this has got to be the way to go from now on in so I've decided to name my strategy as I can't see it changing much from now on in, maybe a tweak here and a twaek there but thats it., so what shall I call this strategy???

Well the one thing this TMA addition has done for me is taken away two of my biggest Fears, "The Fear of Missing Out" and "The Fear Of Leaving something on the Table" so I feel confident in trading with No Fear whatsoever....So how about???

"The No Fear Trading System"

Got a nice ring to it hasn't it???

Couple of more examples for you...

London open and both 5 min and 15 min channels sloping up so buy the 1 min TMA's lower band whenever it turns up..



Then theres the power when all three lower bands meet up in an uptrending 5 and 15 min channel....Look at the first arrow..



This is identifying where we need to be entering on our 1 minute charts to make the most pips...

The way to look at this trading system is very simple, these TMA bands are showing us where our 5 min and 15 min traders are entering the market at their extremes so all we have to do is trade with them behind us and our 1 minute trades will fly...

Think about like this, the 5 minute channel is up, the 15 min channel is up therefore where are the 5 min and 15 min traders going to enter the market???

On a pullback just like we do on our 1 minute charts so by identifying these lows we are identifying 5 min and 15 minute pullbacks, when it works BOOOM!!!!!

My one concern is I don't know whether these 5 minute and 15 minute TMA's repaint but I guess the evidence from other traders is that they do, but thats fine because I'm happy that the 1 min TMA's are pretty reliable so even if the 5 min and 15 min TMAs repaint by using the 1 min TMA for confirmation of entry I will be moving to BE off of my 1 minute entry or I get a 10 to 20 pip loser... Just accept it and move onto the next one..

Lastly I'm not after hundreds of pips per day just 20 will do so I'd be happy to just scalp my 1 min TMA in the direction of the other two TMAs when they agree...

Well thats what I'm doing next week for sure, lets see what happens...

Also.if.you.find m30 h1 h4 or a daily channel trading the same.direction then you.can hold and play the long game.

personally.if i saw that i would bank the winning run...wait for the pullback to complete and go again in direction of the bigger cycle.

Yep if you want the bigger runs wait for the 1 minute to come down to the hrly TMA and do the same thing, use the 1 min TMA for entry get to BE and see what happens, if it takes you out at BE wait for next 1 min TMA signal and go again until you get something to stick..

Theres more than one way to skin a cat for sure, you can either just scalp the 1 minute TMA channel when the 5 and 15 min agree or you can bank half and hold half on the higher timeframe TMA but I would not just hold forever thinking its going to run forever as they very often don't so at least bank half and just hold half as a "runner".

Its a combination of orphan grabbing and running , grab an orphan on the opposite 1 min TMA band and hold the other half as a runner on the higher TMA...

Thanks again Jason good stuff..

Clicked on the paper clip (indicators posted here) and the indi you mantion (FastTMALine) is not there. ???
Thanks.

Forgot to post template and the TMA that I'm using so have just posted them to main post plus here to.

Thanks Clive!

Clive, what is the middle line (the one that changes colour) - HMA (120)? (I downloaded your template, but there is no middle line).

Thanks

midnight run post picture what you have got

gbpaud-m1.png

can you post picture of your indicator list?

Midnight run

put this template in your templates folder,,,,,under files...open data folder...

when done please goto your navigator list where all indicators are listed and right click refresh

then load the template onto the chart

post pic please when done.

your last picture wasnt right as settings had been messed with cos pipsmoter was in wrong corner for a start

Hi guys.
Which currency pairs are best to use with this new system?

to show the center band colours,,,goto the fasttmline indicator inputs and set to true midnightrun

i suspect you been playing with the settings and turned them false

another good feature aboutthis indicator is....if you have show all center band to false

but you have the 15min one to true,,,when you look at 1min chart you will see the centre band colour forthe 15min timeframe,,,,so while watching the price action on 1min chart you can see the direction 15min is going

mikeuk any pair

play with settings if you wish and save the templates or profiles to your liking

you may set up each pair seperately and save the pair as a template,,,so there all individual

what ever your style is

personally i have profiles setup

Thanks Devon.
On your template above, only the 1 min and 15 min TMA's are showing.
The indicator for the 5 is there in the list but not showing.

in the indicator look at visualisation and also its not coloured black
to make it clear make it solid lines not dots...then squeeze the chart to make narrower.not at pc at mo but will look shortly