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Abcd fibo retracement trading journal

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Aug 7, 2022 11:16am Mar 2, 2021 2:35pm | Edited Aug 7, 2022 11:16am
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
This is my 1st public trading journal outlining how I evaluate and trade the market. I will be sharing the exact way I do this, and with the tools that I use that are standard on MT4 and MT5. This 1st post is how to set up the fibonacci retracement tool with the correct numbers.
Due to the fact that the dialog box for the fibo does not expand enough to list the complete levels and description to take a picture, I will provide the list below and you will have to set those up yourself.

For those wanting to evaluate the market with the Multi-Colored Fibo here is the Guy who created it:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...tracement-tool

Here is the exe:
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 FibTool3.ex4   89 KB | 184 downloads | Uploaded Mar 9, 2021 3:04pm

You will have to change the levels to match mine If you want.
Check out his thread to see how to set it up, or just use the one with your platform and my settings.




Fibonacci retracement

Level Description

0 100
0.1 10
0.2 20
0.3 30
0.4 40
0.5 50
0.6 60
0.7 70
0.8 80
0.9 90
1 100
-0.1 110
-0.2 120
-0.3 130
-0.4 140
-0.5 150
-0.6 160
-0.7 170
-0.8 180
-0.9 190
-1 200
-----------------------------
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:11am Mar 3, 2021 10:50am | Edited 11:11am
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Now that the Fibonacci retracement is set up correctly I can go over the numerical relationship between the numbers.

0-5-0
1-6-1
2-7-2
3-8-3
4-9-4
5-0-5
6-1-6
7-2-7
8-3-8
9-4-9

I used single digits in the example but the same can be applied with double digits as in the fibo settings. IE: 10, 20, 30...
It's important to know these number relationships when the market continues past your take profit (D), stop loss or (C).

In post 1 I could not add the 50 line B pics so I will add them here.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDWeekly B 100.png
Size: 45 KB
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Name: EURUSDWeekly B 90.png
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Name: EURUSDWeekly B 80.png
Size: 45 KB
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Name: EURUSDWeekly B 70.png
Size: 45 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDWeekly B 60.png
Size: 45 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
2
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 11:30am Mar 3, 2021 11:30am
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Let's get started.
I only trade EURUSD but this works on all pairs.
Start on Daily chart and zoom out so that bars or candles are small and indistinguishable from each other.
Find the last 2 trend line breaks and mark them. We are going to focus only on the second one to begin plotting the fibo.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 1.png
Size: 116 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:55am Mar 3, 2021 11:35am | Edited 11:55am
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Zoom in on the last trendline break and find the lowest low and the 1st swing high after the break of the trend line.

Step 2, Plot fibo from lowest low to the swing high. (A) low, (B) high.
Now we have to decide where to enter the market and where to place the stop loss if you use one.
The sequence for the 100 and 50 A and B will always be the same so there is no guess work involved, it becomes a purely mechanical process.
In the following pic we are using the 100 A and B for the swing. This is where the numerical relationship comes into play.
In the picture you will see I marked 3 levels for the C entry
50
75 (will be between the 70 and 80) obviously.
100
I prefer the 100 and 75 in that order as they offer the lowest risk for entry.
Stop will go just beyond the A swing low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily3.png
Size: 69 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Edited 12:53pm Mar 3, 2021 12:13pm | Edited 12:53pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Here is how this trade played out.
The C ended up being our 80 line entry, but notice, as the market tried to move up to the D, it kept bouncing off of the 30 line.
Numerical relationship: 8-3-8. This is an inside A B resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 4.png
Size: 68 KB


We exit the trade at the D 80 line and plot a new fibo. After a new high is identified by a high with a down bar / candle close.
Before we plot a new fibo we can use the numerical relationship to identify possible support (retracement) based on how high the market went.
In the pic I plotted 2 probable supports and resistance based on the first high after the D price and the highest high.
By measuring the distance from 50 to 100 lines I made a trendline the same distance and applied it to the two different highs, which gave me 2 different levels of support. As you can see the market respected the higher one to the pip.
Be aware the market could have gone back down to the 50 line in the retracement zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 5.png
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MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 12:47pm Mar 3, 2021 12:47pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Here is the second fibo being played out.

The first fibo C becomes the new A and the first fibo D becomes the new B.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 6.png
Size: 68 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 1:11pm Mar 3, 2021 1:11pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Here is the A-100 B-50 fibo that projects longer range take profits and can be used with the A-100 B-100 fibo to find a confluence.
The same procedures apply and I am looking for support and resistance based on the numerical relationship.
The numbers for my C entry are going to change.
They are going to be 100, 90, 70 in that order with a stop loss just beyond 100.
Notice that I marked the 40 line in the expansion zone as resistance since my C is 90, my numerical relationship is:
90-40-90-40.
You will only need to plot another fibo if the top 100 line or the bottom 100 line are taken out.
It is possible I may need to plot another fibo based on how deep the retracement went after the D was hit.
I marked the projection in the second pic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 7.png
Size: 70 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 8.png
Size: 71 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 1:40pm Mar 3, 2021 1:40pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Here is a second fibo with a slightly different projection.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 9.png
Size: 71 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 2:03pm Mar 3, 2021 2:03pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
What to do if you get stopped out. For an A-100 B-100.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 1.png
Size: 65 KB

1.Wait for candle to close after stop out.
2. Move cursor over the 50% toggle and pick up the fibo without changing the distance plotted.
3. Slide the fibo down in this case till the 50 line is at the previous A-100 low.
Place a pending order at the 70 or enter as soon as you have a bull candle close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 2.png
Size: 57 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 2:31pm Mar 3, 2021 2:31pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Current market projection.
Keep in mind that this is the Daily chart and it can take a month or more to hit the D.
I expect a ranging condition within the yellow brackets I plotted.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 10.png
Size: 76 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 11.png
Size: 58 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 3:56pm Mar 3, 2021 3:56pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Current 1HR fibo playing out. Looking for completion of the 3rd down fibo before market begins real push up.
Market is using previous fibo D's as support and resistance. Horizontal lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDH1.png
Size: 61 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 4:38pm Mar 3, 2021 4:38pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDH1.png
Size: 70 KB

Just posted this in EURUSD thread. Looking for the inside fibo 50-50 to complete then the 30-30.
I expect the trend to reverse after the big push down.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Mar 3, 2021 5:46pm Mar 3, 2021 5:46pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Here's monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDMonthly.png
Size: 74 KB

Monthly and daily are in opposite directions so that means Daily D is in the direction of the Monthly C.
Hope that makes sense.
For this pair and at this time we will be making ranging moves in the direction of the Daily D.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:53am Mar 5, 2021 9:41am | Edited 9:53am
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
A100-B50 1st pic and stop out fibo is 2nd pic.
Closed 1 of my buys leaving the other open for a possible rebound before hitting Buy Limit.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily.png
Size: 71 KB
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Name: EURUSDDaily2.png
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MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Edited 6:30pm Mar 7, 2021 6:00pm | Edited 6:30pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
EURUSD levels to watch.
Notice the swings use the numbers almost to the pip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily4.png
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Reverse Kings Crown Failure setting up a secondary Reverse King Crown
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Name: EURUSDDaily KC.png
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Name: EURUSDDaily KC2.png
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Here is another possibility
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Name: EURUSDDaily KC3.png
Size: 58 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Mar 8, 2021 10:38am Mar 8, 2021 10:38am
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDaily 90.png
Size: 53 KB

I just posted this pic in another thread without explanation.
1. I have 2 Fibonacci's plotted with the exact same length. The 1st one is A-100 B-50 to give me the extended price projection since the A-100 B-100 range has been broken.
2. I plotted the 2nd Fibo to begin at the middle 100 and end at the highest 100 to continue the scale beyond the 1st Fibo. What this does is give me the ability to use this same Fibo for a very long time and the ability to simplify the number sequence. This makes it the 4th way to plot Fibo. I have already showed the others in the pics.
3. With one Fibo we only have 2 Identical numbers as the C and D with the exception of 100. By adding the 2nd Fibo I am now looking for my C and D numerical sequence to project that leg to a D2. In this case it would be 90-90-90.
4. The numerical sequence for this pair is 9-4-9. To complete the sequence before a change in trend I want to see a 9-4-9-4-9-4 complete. On a Daily chart this can take a very long time, but on smaller timeframes it can be very quick.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Mar 8, 2021 3:18pm Mar 8, 2021 3:18pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: EURUSDMonthly.png
Size: 67 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Mar 9, 2021 10:07am Mar 9, 2021 10:07am
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Here is some pics to help set up the Fibo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Fibonacci Retracement.png
Size: 21 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: Fibonacci Retracement2.png
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Name: Fibonacci Retracement3.png
Size: 27 KB
Follow the number sequence in post #1
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Mar 9, 2021 11:32am Mar 9, 2021 11:32am
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Custom Indicator I paid to make, I will not share this. Your platform number system I shared is the same as the colors.I am showing this to get you to think outside the box and simplify trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDDailyCOLORS.png
Size: 51 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Mar 9, 2021 12:00pm Mar 9, 2021 12:00pm
  •  tonyb123
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Member | 1,699 Posts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Name: EURUSDH4COLOR.png
Size: 61 KB
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
 
1
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