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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #681
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:00am Jun 12, 2015 12:00am
Quoting vvFish
....
thank you
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #682
  • Jun 12, 2015 11:01am Jun 12, 2015 11:01am
Tuesday
11:30
16/06/15
GB Consumer Price Index GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Tuesday
12:00
16/06/15
EU German ZEW
(EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment), EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #683
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:35am Jun 16, 2015 1:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #684
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:03am Jun 16, 2015 2:03am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #685
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:04am Jun 16, 2015 2:04am
Wednesday
21:00
17/06/15
US Interest Rate
(US Federal Funds Rate), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #686
  • Jun 16, 2015 5:35am Jun 16, 2015 5:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_14.png Size: 133 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #687
  • Jun 16, 2015 6:27pm Jun 16, 2015 6:27pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Pound waiting for important data protection, 17 June

Pound and without the main event of the day may well pull this Wednesday, referring to what is necessary to be cautious in this period: the simultaneous publication of the minutes of the Bank of England, labor market data, and wait for the evening performance of Mark Carney.
At 11-30 Moscow time, we can expect several surprises:
Minutes of the Bank of England. It has been two weeks since the last meeting of the MPC - it is the traditional time for the publication of its logging. We are interested in the structure of voting (at the rate of program APF) and comments for any of the first, nor the second change is planned, but look for mention of inflation in the press, then release.
The labor market. It may be much more interesting and volatile at the moment. It hides its traditional and new risks.
From traditional - a conflict between Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate, and do not be surprised if the AE index will beat his opponents did not hesitate.
Because not traditional - changing the formula for the calculation of unemployment claims, which is quite unpredictable (by the reaction) event.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #688
  • Jun 16, 2015 6:35pm Jun 16, 2015 6:35pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

US Federal Funds Rate

Greece and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, it would seem that there is a general, but David Keeble of Credit Agricole, said: "If the debt problem will spread to other countries or happen significant blow to the US stock market, the Fed will not raise interest rates."
And it's not only the view, but you must understand that it is not the current FOMC meeting in June.
We probably should not repeat that market expectations regarding the interest rate increase established by the end of 2015. The decision to accept a rate of a specialized committee FOMC, which meets eight times a year.
As you can see plenty of goals for the shot, but it is worth noting that a key meeting considered the meeting with the press conference, these include: September and December. That's why the markets especially talking loudly about the expectations of interest rate in September. Now, more pressing question after the June meeting of the Fed may be a dilemma: "September December Ali?".
As a result, interest rate right now is not expected (only 2 out of 70 analysts expect an increase), but the markets in the evening will receive a dose of reflection, and USD is likely their roller coaster ride on the stock: strong enough to volatility may be changing the wording of the accompanying protocols, and summarizing press conference Janet Yellen.
Not on the side of the US economy has performed statistics of the first quarter, and probably the second, with the exception of recent publications (May-April) NFP is not much we could cheer, the Fed will remain in the "standby", though markets do not mind to see the tightening the language support.
Earlier, the IMF cut its growth forecast for the US economy and recommended to postpone the rate hike.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #689
  • Jun 17, 2015 11:16am Jun 17, 2015 11:16am
Thursday
01:45
18/06/15
NZ GDP growth HOT!
(NZ GDP), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
11:00
18/06/15
NO Interest
(NO Interest Rate Decision), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when the trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
11:30
18/06/15
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
15:30
18/06/15
The core US consumer price index
(US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
18/06/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #690
  • Jun 17, 2015 11:38pm Jun 17, 2015 11:38pm
CHF Libor Interest Rate Libor Previous and Forecast -0.75%

How would you trade USDCHF if actual:

-1%
0%
1%

Please state your view.
  • #691
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:59am Jun 18, 2015 12:59am
Quoting belief
CHF Libor Interest Rate Libor Previous and Forecast -0.75% How would you trade USDCHF if actual: -1% 0% 1% Please state your view.
We are not trading on the pair USDCHF
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #692
  • Jun 18, 2015 7:34am Jun 18, 2015 7:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #693
  • Jun 18, 2015 8:16am Jun 18, 2015 8:16am
Friday
15:30
19/06/15
CA The core consumer price index
(CA Core CPI), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #694
  • Jun 19, 2015 5:37am Jun 19, 2015 5:37am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_18.png Size: 133 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #695
  • Jun 19, 2015 5:40am Jun 19, 2015 5:40am
Tuesday
4:45
23/06/15
CN production index PMI
(CN HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI), China, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
45% probability trades.

Tuesday
15:30
23/06/15
Index US durable goods orders
(US Core Durable Goods Orders), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #696
  • Jun 23, 2015 8:43am Jun 23, 2015 8:43am
Wednesday
15:30
24/06/15
US GDP Fynalnыy
(US Final GDP), USA, USDJPY
Srednyaya reaction at srabatыvanyy tryhherov 20.00 ITEMS pervuju to pass after reliza.
10% probability trading.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #697
  • Jun 24, 2015 5:21am Jun 24, 2015 5:21am
At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.

********************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 2.3 Million-Barrel Drop in Crude Stocks
Published: Jun 23, 2015

By Nicole Friedman


NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to show a decline in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 12 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 2.3 million barrels, on average, in the week ended June 19.

Eleven analysts expect stockpiles to fall, while one expects a rise. Forecasts range from a rise of 1 million barrels to a drop of 4.5 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to fall by 200,000 barrels, according to analysts. Five analysts expect a decline, with six expecting a rise and another seeing no change. Estimates range from a rise of 1.5 million barrels to a drop of 2.5 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 800,000 barrels. Eleven analysts expect a rise, while one sees a decline. Forecasts range from a drop of 2 million barrels to a gain of 2 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen rising 0.5 percentage point to 93.6% of capacity, based on EIA data. Nine analysts expect an increase, one expects a decline, one sees no change and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a rise of 1.5 points to a drop of 1.0 point.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is scheduled to release its inventory data for the same period later Tuesday.

Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital -2.7 -0.9 0.7 0.4
Citi Futures Perspective -2.5 1.0 1.5 1.0
Confluence Investment Management -3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
EBW AnalyticsGroup -3.5 1.0 1.2 0.2
Energy Management Institute -2.0 1.0 1.6 0.8
Excel Futures -3.1 -1.7 0.5 0.4
Frost & Sullivan -1.5 -2.5 1.25 0.5
IAF Advisors -1.0 unch 0.5 n/a
Price Futures Group -2.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.0
Ritterbusch and Associates 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5
Schneider Electric -2.5 -1.0 0.3 unch
Tradition Energy -4.5 1.5 2.0 1.0

AVERAGE -2.3 -0.2 0.8 0.5

*************************************************************

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #698
  • Jun 24, 2015 7:37am Jun 24, 2015 7:37am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_26.png Size: 4 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_25.png Size: 83 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #699
  • Edited 11:26pm Jun 24, 2015 7:39am | Edited 11:26pm
Thursday
17:30
25/06/15
US natural gas reserves (US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #700
  • Jun 24, 2015 9:59pm Jun 24, 2015 9:59pm
Quoting vvFish
Thursday 17:30 25/06/15 US natural gas Zapasы GOOD (US Natural Gas Storage), USA, #NG Srednyaya reaction at srabatыvanyy tryhherov 60.00 ITEMS pervuju to pass after reliza. 50% probability trading.
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