Disliked{quote} Everyone has a size limit. This game is not as scalable as people think even though theoretically it is. Have you ever tried increasing your volume as your equity curve heads north. A funny thing usually happens to that equity curve. Not funny actually.Ignored
Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness
The only thing that's random is your dumb and misguided comments .
You state the randomness is evident , well in truth the fact we use price and time and volume as such , says otherwise. the fact people in various degrees profit from "knowing the trend or direction the market will go for set period of time" says it is most definitely NOT RANDOM .
Typical - broker/insto trader - I am remember in the 2000 techo rally and crash how many dumb brokers/insto refused to look at the charts or technical info, rather trusting in Gossip, fundamental views and downright random attitude of the market.
it sounds like your bitter or just blinded by pure instoism ( new word haha) where you believe one type of dealing exists, well hate to break it to you, the market is ever evolving, it makes you work constantly at re aligning your profits, yes you work , sounds like you don't like that , my advice leave don't return! go work for someone and don't look back. I can prove with out a shadow of a doubt markets are not random and in some cases, I can give down the to minute and pip amove will occur in the direction to profit from . it might not be 99% of time but It does occur and from these I make use of the predictability of the emotion, money and nature of that given time where all these cards are laid down on the table and I act! not out of random thought or random market move but because I have a system that says this is what your work you have done can do for you! thanks market and walk away to work and fight another day !
that's pro trading, picking your fights and looking for the spots where I am less likely to loose, like jumping into the fight when the majority of the punch up has happened and all the energy expended , you come in fresh and sweep up the target. its never easy and it takes patience and mental strength.
So in answer to your stir or dumb arse comment on randomness, its like the saying the galaxy randomly come from nothing just appeared and made itself, or more closer to home, your watch just appeared on your wrist, made with high detail and inner perfection yet somehow it just appeared on its own and made itself become the complex and beautiful piece of jewellery without having a creator or design. so to is the market, it has design and functions and processes, it has been created for a purpose and exists in its trends and phases, people measure this in different ways and therefore enables many different people to profit from those defined points of complexity . ( sorry for getting deep here , but I wanted to highlight the markets are vast and its complexity is high but it doesn't make it random)
Go Home, get a job and make love to your girl ( if you have one that puts up with your stupid comments ) sorry to be rude but your comments show how really how dumb you are and if you wanted a reaction you got one 13 pages of it. Well done on that BTW .
Frankly getting mentored by one the Market Masters was a great privilege, based on 100 years of experience he forwarded to me I can only say your perception and understanding is flawed, coz if they, who have gone before, were sold on the idea and proved it over and over , then why would I doubt the proof. People have opinions and make statements, the bottom line is, they are profitable. If the system is mathematical or technical in the price action as an example then I ask, how can this be random when the same thing happens again and again ????? and then again.
leave that with you, to ponder , have a great day while I go back to my randomness of the day
You state the randomness is evident , well in truth the fact we use price and time and volume as such , says otherwise. the fact people in various degrees profit from "knowing the trend or direction the market will go for set period of time" says it is most definitely NOT RANDOM .
Typical - broker/insto trader - I am remember in the 2000 techo rally and crash how many dumb brokers/insto refused to look at the charts or technical info, rather trusting in Gossip, fundamental views and downright random attitude of the market.
it sounds like your bitter or just blinded by pure instoism ( new word haha) where you believe one type of dealing exists, well hate to break it to you, the market is ever evolving, it makes you work constantly at re aligning your profits, yes you work , sounds like you don't like that , my advice leave don't return! go work for someone and don't look back. I can prove with out a shadow of a doubt markets are not random and in some cases, I can give down the to minute and pip amove will occur in the direction to profit from . it might not be 99% of time but It does occur and from these I make use of the predictability of the emotion, money and nature of that given time where all these cards are laid down on the table and I act! not out of random thought or random market move but because I have a system that says this is what your work you have done can do for you! thanks market and walk away to work and fight another day !
that's pro trading, picking your fights and looking for the spots where I am less likely to loose, like jumping into the fight when the majority of the punch up has happened and all the energy expended , you come in fresh and sweep up the target. its never easy and it takes patience and mental strength.
So in answer to your stir or dumb arse comment on randomness, its like the saying the galaxy randomly come from nothing just appeared and made itself, or more closer to home, your watch just appeared on your wrist, made with high detail and inner perfection yet somehow it just appeared on its own and made itself become the complex and beautiful piece of jewellery without having a creator or design. so to is the market, it has design and functions and processes, it has been created for a purpose and exists in its trends and phases, people measure this in different ways and therefore enables many different people to profit from those defined points of complexity . ( sorry for getting deep here , but I wanted to highlight the markets are vast and its complexity is high but it doesn't make it random)
Go Home, get a job and make love to your girl ( if you have one that puts up with your stupid comments ) sorry to be rude but your comments show how really how dumb you are and if you wanted a reaction you got one 13 pages of it. Well done on that BTW .
Frankly getting mentored by one the Market Masters was a great privilege, based on 100 years of experience he forwarded to me I can only say your perception and understanding is flawed, coz if they, who have gone before, were sold on the idea and proved it over and over , then why would I doubt the proof. People have opinions and make statements, the bottom line is, they are profitable. If the system is mathematical or technical in the price action as an example then I ask, how can this be random when the same thing happens again and again ????? and then again.
leave that with you, to ponder , have a great day while I go back to my randomness of the day
- #245
- Jun 24, 2015 12:42am Jun 24, 2015 12:42am
- Joined Mar 2011 | Status: I should be on your ignore list | 5,597 Posts
Guys I make millions of dollars a year from trading. I'm not really interested in Forex Factory as there is no advantage to spending my time on here that being said I do know that for those of you that have listened with an open mind you will find your way through the chaos and randomness to the massive wealth that awaits you. I don't know what else I can do in here that will help you guys ? Why don't you make some suggestions as to what you would like me to show you. I think its pretty simple though... Look for those times...
- #246
- Edited 2:06am Jun 24, 2015 12:51am | Edited 2:06am
- Joined Mar 2011 | Status: I should be on your ignore list | 5,597 Posts
- #249
- Jun 24, 2015 3:06am Jun 24, 2015 3:06am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,113 Posts
Once you realise your place in the food chain and appreciate how unpredictable an environment the market is, you stop predicting and start following, or at least I did
At the right hand edge of the chart, I believe that all we can do is predict. Either we assume that, if price is moving in one direction (up or down -- on our chosen time horizon), it has > 50% probability of continuing to do so; or we assume that, on the basis of its being overbought/oversold, and/or having reached some apparent barrier (e.g. S/R, supply/demand zone, pivot, round number, MA, etc etc or confluence of these.....), or for whatever other reason, that the move is exhausted and price is more likely to reverse soon. Continuation and reversal are the only two possibilities, and either way, I see that as making some kind of implicit prediction. Hence I'm not trying to be a smartass or a troll, I'm genuinely curious what thought processes and analysis techniques are involved in "following". It's never made any kind of meaningful sense to me.
{quote} Can you (or anybody) explain what is meant by "following"? At the right hand edge of the chart, I believe that all we can do is predict. Either we assume that, if price is moving in one direction (up or down -- on our chosen time horizon), it has > 50% probability of continuing to do so; or we assume that, on the basis of its being overbought/oversold, and/or having reached some apparent barrier (e.g. S/R, supply/demand zone, pivot, round number, MA, etc etc or confluence of these.....), or for whatever other reason, that the move is exhausted...
(I also don't mean to be a smart ass with this response)
Get your wife to stand still.
Now stand behind her.
Then tell her to walk wherever she would like to go.
Now, follow her where ever she go.
Notice that you didn't even predicted whether she was going to go; left or right.
If you don't understand that my friend, well I guess your cup is full
Peace,
CrucialPoint
- #253
- Jun 24, 2015 3:39am Jun 24, 2015 3:39am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader by hobby not by profession | 7,078 Posts
- #256
- Jun 24, 2015 4:31am Jun 24, 2015 4:31am
Yes, I agree that its a shame this useful post has disintegrated into the usual aggressive I- know -it -all responses. I think the level of rudeness is totally unacceptable - helpful suggestions/criticisms are whats needed. Orolos post is perhaps the worst - why the need for so much venom and rudeness? i have absolutely no respect for people who make nasty jibes like this. You know the saying - that men with the smallest di.....s always drive the biggest cars? It seems to me there are very few females on these forums - maybe they just quietly read...
A couple of charts in retrospect which are supposed to point us in the direction of what the OP was talking about? Sorry, i dont see where the helpful stuff in there comes form.
This is not being rude, this is being matter of fact.
The post really descended into rudeness, with OP questioning people's intellect for not believing what he was saying without any evidence or substance. THAT is the height of rudeness, and then to ask other people in the thread to hound the 'non-believers' of the thread, i take that as highly inappropriate, especially when the self styled guru was here to help people?
The people with the intellect are the people who request something from the op to substantiate his claims, and substantiate why he knows more than everyone else, and why he is king of MENSA (judging by how he can judge others for not believing in him)
TO be really childish.....
he started it
- #258
- Edited 5:57am Jun 24, 2015 5:32am | Edited 5:57am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: ... | 8,113 Posts
Phew 
....... it took 237 posts to finally arrive at this:
Now people can spend time arguing who is ruder than whom; or boasting idly about their achievements; or debate semantics on what 'random' actually means in the context of markets. Or they can attempt to ascertain what these "non-random moves" might look like...... if indeed the concept merits consideration. If it doesn't, then -- in terms of forex education -- the whole thread is effectively a waste of bandwidth IMO.
So what might the drivers/causes behind a 'non-random' move be? Just to get the ball rolling, I would guess that high on the list are heavyweight bank/institutional maneuvering; macroeconomic factors (interest rates, QE, central bank agendas and rhetoric, risk on/off, trends in commodity/bond/stock prices, perceived strength of national economies, ......); unexpected or highly deviant red news outcomes; and occasions of severe (perceived) 'mispricing'. From what I've seen and heard, institutional traders perform a lot of FA, along these very lines. For whatever that might be worth.
Now I'll crawl back beneath my rock, and let you good folk get back to your various discussions.
Alas, I didn't take statistics beyond high school. All I know is that a completely 'random' process -- like an unbiased roulette wheel -- will generate (apparent) trends of reds and blacks, but there is no possibility of beating that type of random game. Hence I assume that an AR(1) model represents a (qualitatively) different type of randomness, i.e. if it can be traded profitably, there must be some degree of serial correlation. I looked at the wikipedia entry for AR(1) but found the statistical equations too daunting. 
Anyway, thanks for taking the time to reply.
....... it took 237 posts to finally arrive at this:I think its pretty simple though... Look for those times that the market MOVES and follow it because its in the Non Random Moves that you will find the highest probability of future of price. This is all you really need to know to make your Forex Dreams come true
So what might the drivers/causes behind a 'non-random' move be? Just to get the ball rolling, I would guess that high on the list are heavyweight bank/institutional maneuvering; macroeconomic factors (interest rates, QE, central bank agendas and rhetoric, risk on/off, trends in commodity/bond/stock prices, perceived strength of national economies, ......); unexpected or highly deviant red news outcomes; and occasions of severe (perceived) 'mispricing'. From what I've seen and heard, institutional traders perform a lot of FA, along these very lines. For whatever that might be worth.
Now I'll crawl back beneath my rock, and let you good folk get back to your various discussions.
One way of looking at it is to consider an AR(1) model. It's completely driven by random noise, and is thus unpredictable. Yet, it tends to form trends, and is thus tradable. Figure out the variance of the noise component and use it to place stop entries above and below the market. Because of the choice of distance, if a stop order is hit, it is likely to be signal rather than noise, and thus the process is likely to continue in the same direction. You are then profitably following something which is completely random without predicting...
Anyway, thanks for taking the time to reply.
- #259
- Edited 6:23am Jun 24, 2015 6:08am | Edited 6:23am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 3,270 Posts
Alas, I didn't take statistics beyond high school. All I know is that a completely 'random' process -- like an unbiased roulette wheel -- will generate (apparent) trends of reds and blacks, but there is no possibility of beating that type of random game. Hence I assume that an AR(1) model represents a (qualitatively) different type of randomness, i.e. if it can be traded profitably, there must be some degree of serial correlation. I looked at the wikipedia entry for AR(1) but found the statistical equations too daunting.
And the point is that, while CrucialPoint's wife may be somewhat predictable, this one isn't, other than for the fact that it tends to form trends.
As an illustration, see attached pic for an illustration of fitting an AR model to DAX since the beginning of the year and using it to simulate the next 100 days of trading.
- #260
- Jun 24, 2015 6:09am Jun 24, 2015 6:09am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,318 Posts
It never gets easier, you just get better