EURUSD

have a nice week end guys

Good! I got one from expected level I posted - 65, let it run.

not the easiest of weeks but thankfully positive...

SL to BE now.. don't want an accident last day of week right

I'm out, gotta run, off next week. GL all!

Closed manually with another 15 pips.. day and week is done.. wish you all the best..

Happy Weekends

http://orders.forexlive.com/!/cftc-c...-2015-20150619 fed cleared some usd longs

GPBUSD 1.586x is an important support, if it is broken then we could slide down to 1.581x
NZDUSD could be heading to 0.688x or beyond, in case of reverse then to 0.692x or beyond
USDJPY down to 122.5 but if it breaks 123.2X first then we could go to 123.8x or beyond
EURUSD no idea
USDCAD very disappointing not to continue to downtrend further, it can go anywhere from here
USDCHF no man's land
AUDNZD nice monthly trend, can be nice buy in the next weeks after a nice retracement

hostest pair to trend near term can be GPBUSD and NZDUSD

EUR/USD is facing new support and resistance levels. 1.1390 and 1.1280 I am not going to open any position until Monday in case something will happen in the EU meeting.

hit tp
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post8336208

thanks for this week and happy weekend

If market follows the "maximum pain" theory, then we should see slow grind up (like what we are seeing - kinda - it's just large 'grind range' due to the uncertainty present).
If shorts stop out at say 1.15 and just take losses, we could see 1.2 before october. If they reverse to long, then I think pull back to 1.11,1.12 or 1.13 depending on how long this grind goes on, could be in cards, to give the new late longs some squeeze.

While there are some fundamental drivers such as interest rate changes, central banks, politicians talking price, the other big driver for trends is that in a zero sum game (it is a casino game from my pov based on 5 years of study), all the wins* need to come from somewhere. And that's from the bears jumping on the ship that had already sailed. Now they're swimming in vomit and the trail of vomit goes up and up, keep the hope alive?

* (for market makers that try to ensure those with a winning tactic that the bucket shop bucketed off from their sheet start losing)

If you had option markets you could keep the loser and use some covered strategies to offset the costs of holding onto shorts while market grinds up. I think this is what is going on in stock markets a lot as they tend to slowly grind up.

Why would prices follow such "pain" theory? Well the reason for this is that if a market has options, the smart money will be using options and options pricing. Since market makers are on sell side of the options and newbies are on the buy side, this creates a self-fulfilling prophecy due to options pricing and their connection to underlying (atleast through mm's ensuring the options expire worthless). Even if you are buying or selling currency in a simple retail trade manner, you are really making a complex options trade (not actually sure what type of options they prefer to use). If you are a consistent loser, they probably don't make the option trade unless your size is high. They only do it for consistent winners with decent size. The obvious issue here is that if you grow to become extremely profitable (through opening very large positions) at a bucket shop, you can start to have effect on the market in inconsistent manner. It's likely possible to avoid this by scaling in over long enough time and price range. This explains why large leveraged winning positions that last for a month or more are rare. So that's why most intraday leveraged scalpers are just intraday - holding those overnight exposes them to the option pricing effects such as time decay.

EUR/USD under strong sell from yesterday caused by the greece unclear situation, but the pair closing higher for the 4th week.

kudos

It's kind of amazing to me how euro just won't head south again. Sometimes the simplest news will send a currency down but this week you've got people withdrawing 2 billion euros from Greek banks, possible forced bank holiday and so much uncertainty and the damn thing won't drop b/c Yellen was a tad dovish?

That's because there will be a deal...Why else would the ECB be still funding Greek banks.

if it doesnt go with the news it means news is already priced in, so better not look at the news result just avoid trading immediately during news if it confuses you because of the slippage apart from that news is irrelevant as long as you have a stop loss and take profit orders in place

fundies is saying up, but techwise is stopping it, so as GU and UJ.
UJ is stopped by 122.4 which is the mid point from last rallies.
so once 122.4 is broken it would aim for 120.6 at least with 119.3 on the card.
EU is looking for somewhere above 1.15. 1.17130 is another tech level a 200 SMA dailies which hasnt been tested for a year, we could see really strong bounce from there or perhaps a resuming of downward momentum. :/ right now the pair is stopped by SMA 150 dailies but PA is still bullish
KIWI is bottomed, 0.688 should be it, an over shoot to 0.68513 should happen next week :-?

New one on the bears aiming for 1219, bulls can allow that , and have one at 1213 for 1564, 1279 maybe a show stopper for bears, and resume to 1564 first.

moving averages are lagging indicators, it is not accurate to use them to forecast support and resistance
if you want to use them, you better find another way to look at them
if you want to predict reversal points, you do it with fibonacci

Update...one week later....