Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 287 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,721
  • Jun 11, 2015 8:28am Jun 11, 2015 8:28am
Quoting digitalko
{quote} Thank you for quick answer. So you did confirm my opinion on TL 2. That means that TL 1 is correct one. Could you please also coment my analisys of NZDUSD D1 short setup from june 10th? Thank you in advance.
You are welcome my friend. TL is is the right TL.. Regarding NZD/USD short, it was good to short, MN is down, WK down, D1 down... Shorts is the way to go on NZD/USD.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,722
  • Jun 12, 2015 2:11am Jun 12, 2015 2:11am
Hello traders.
I am attaching another tricky TL on GBPCAD D1 chart.
In my opinion it is correct.
My rational:
Previously TL was steeper as more then 3 CPs occurred but then the price action formed shallow but valid valley.
Now I connected 2 last valleys.
M is up
Wis up
D broke the trend line to the down side confirming new D1 supply at last month high.
Short term CT short available, but I can not take it as I am trading only in HT direction.

Question:
Is the TL correct?
Is the daily supply valid and tradeable for CT? It did broke TL but the imbalance is less then 2:1 so I guess no.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD D.jpg Size: 370 KB
  • #5,723
  • Jun 12, 2015 4:57am Jun 12, 2015 4:57am
Hi all,
my opinion

but waiting for Alfonso's correct answer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD daily 12.6.2015.JPG Size: 150 KB
  • #5,724
  • Jun 12, 2015 5:25am Jun 12, 2015 5:25am
Quoting Likan
Hi all, my opinion but waiting for Alfonso's correct answer. {image}
Hi thank you for your oppinion,
I am drawing TLs and zones per specific rules "I hope correct rules "
IMHO
We should not be drawing TLs using potential valleys as they maybe never happen.
Also there is no point drawing daily demand zones under the broken ascending TL unless they are nested in HT demand zone as per realignment rules.
I am attaching redrawn Licans picture with my step by step TLs thought process "TLs from left to right".
I hope it makes sense and Alfonso please correct me if I am wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD daily 12.6.2015.JPG Size: 323 KB
  • #5,725
  • Jun 12, 2015 6:41am Jun 12, 2015 6:41am
Quoting digitalko
Hello traders. I am attaching another tricky TL on GBPCAD D1 chart. In my opinion it is correct. My rational: Previously TL was steeper as more then 3 CPs occurred but then the price action formed shallow but valid valley. Now I connected 2 last valleys. M is up Wis up D broke the trend line to the down side confirming new D1 supply at last month high. Short term CT short available, but I can not take it as I am trading only in HT direction. Question: Is the TL correct? Is the daily supply valid and tradeable for CT? It did broke TL but the imbalance...
Quoting Likan
Hi all, my opinion but waiting for Alfonso's correct answer. {image}
Hello guys,

You ascending D1 trendline is correct, it connected the newly formed valley with the previous valid valley. There was a newly formed Daily supply formed after the trendline break. You are asking if it's tradable... I would like you or any other trader tell me if it's tradable or not. Remember we can't base our decisions on a single timeframe, we need multiple timeframe analysis.

Looking forward to your answer.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,726
  • Jun 12, 2015 6:56am Jun 12, 2015 6:56am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} {quote} Hello guys, You ascending D1 trendline is correct, it connected the newly formed valley with the previous valid valley. There was a newly formed Daily supply formed after the trendline break. You are asking if it's tradable... I would like you or any other trader tell me if it's tradable or not. Remember we can't base our decisions on a single timeframe, we need multiple timeframe analysis. Looking forward to your answer. Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso,
My opinion on this newly formed supply is as I mentioned before "I am trading only with the HT trend":

M is up
W is up
D broke the trend line to the down side confirming new D1 supply at last month high.
Short term CT short available, but I can not take it as I am trading only in HT direction.

CT short at this supply is valid all the way down until the W D1 nested area is hit, but it is lower odds.
1. It would be safer to wait and see if price retraces all the way to W demand and take long from there
2. or wait until price action breaks this D1 supply so we can continue to trade long on newly created D1 and 4H demand zones in confluence with TLs

So my answer is wait until one of two scenarious occur, one of them must come sooner or later.
  • #5,727
  • Jun 15, 2015 2:06am Jun 15, 2015 2:06am
Hello traders,
I am attaching nice potential trade setup which might happen in couple of days.
My question is. Is it worth to set and forget or wait for confirmation on 4H timeframe?
I know there is no right answer for this question, I prefer to hear the rational why in this case would you use SaF or Confirmation.

What bothers me is that the M supply zone is not original. If it would be original I would SaF In this case I would prefer Confirmation, even rules say I do not have to wait for confirmation at fresh levels in the direction of the current trend.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD M.jpg Size: 476 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD W.jpg Size: 453 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD D.jpg Size: 494 KB
  • #5,728
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:11am Jun 15, 2015 3:11am
Hello friends, I'm new here and am trying to understand the system, forgiveness for my English Google translator.
I'm adding a picture and I would understand if the idea is this, wait for a sync two graphs time to make an entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SP6eP4i.png Size: 82 KB
  • #5,729
  • Jun 15, 2015 4:04am Jun 15, 2015 4:04am
Quoting wendvieira
Hello friends, I'm new here and am trying to understand the system, forgiveness for my English Google translator. I'm adding a picture and I would understand if the idea is this, wait for a sync two graphs time to make an entry. {image}
Hi wendvieira
Regarding your post.
You added only 2 charts,if you are trading Daily zones you need to look also at Monthly timeframe.
Monthly is clearly up hitting fresh M supply zone (price very high in the curve) so countertrend shorts may occur.
Price is also located in nested W supply zone
Daily is still up

My advice,
You need to draw trendlines, and if you are counter trend trader, you should wait for Daily trendline to be broken to the downside to take any shorts at Daily timeframe.
Also If you are new to this strategy, you should inherit the rules and backtest, otherwise you will blow your account.
  • #5,730
  • Jun 17, 2015 4:27pm Jun 17, 2015 4:27pm
There will be a new live webinar this Friday 19th June 2015. Those who have previously joined a previous webinar will have received the link.

If you are interested in joining this webinar, fill out this form at http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars
At the end of the process, you will get the link to join. You will have to confirm a valid email address​

SUPPLY AND DEMAND WEBINAR:

  1. SUBJECT: Longer term supply and demand live analysis
  2. DATE: Friday 19th June 2015
  3. TIME: 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM GMT+2, CEST, right at London Open as usual
  4. LINK TO JOIN: fill out this form at http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

You can join now, you will be notified by email 1 day and 1 hour before it starts. The webinar will be recorded as always

I'll try to cover all these topics:

  1. Longer term position trading
  2. We'll use the Sequence and The Realignment to locate setups
  3. How to trade with the D1 supply and demand imbalances
  4. Under which conditions we should hold a trade and how
  5. The analysis for longer term trading can be used for intraday trading, that is, you can use smaller timeframe setups to go in the direction of the bigger picture's trend, it will be higher odds than going against the current trend

Night night!
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,731
  • Jun 18, 2015 10:41am Jun 18, 2015 10:41am
Quoting panoramia
SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOREX TRADING IN A NUTSHELL Set it and forget it! Last updated: 2nd February 2015 PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO GO THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FIRST POST PATIENTLY AND WITH NO HURRIES; PATIENCE IS KEY. I KNOW THIS POST IS LONG AND IT CAN BE A DAUNTING TASK FOR YOU, BUT THERE ARE MANY CONCEPTS YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT ARE KEY TO UNDERSTANDING SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND HOW THE MARKETS MOVE GOVERNED BY THOSE FORCES. IF YOU DON'T DO THAT, OTHERS AND MYSELF WON'T BE ABLE TO HELP YOU. TAKE YOUR TIME, IF YOU NEED HELP LEAVE A MESSAGE IN THE THREAD....
OMG!!! Its almost like a whole book!! awesome!
It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
  • #5,732
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:04pm Jun 18, 2015 4:04pm
Quoting infernal199
{quote} OMG!!! Its almost like a whole book!! awesome!
Almost but not completely a book I am glad that you like the idea of having found it, or maybe I'm wrong.

Thanks for posting your message
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,733
  • Jun 20, 2015 4:46pm Jun 20, 2015 4:46pm
Quoting panoramia
There will be a new live webinar this Friday 19th June 2015. Those who have previously joined a previous webinar will have received the link. If you are interested in joining this webinar, fill out this form at http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars At the end of the process, you will get the link to join. You will have to confirm a valid email address​ SUPPLY AND DEMAND WEBINAR: SUBJECT: Longer term supply and demand live analysis DATE: Friday 19th June 2015 TIME: 9:00 AM - 10:30 AM GMT+2, CEST, right at London Open as usual...
hi Alfonso,

I'm waiting last record of webminar. will you upload it for us?

regards 'n thanks
sonigl
  • #5,734
  • Jun 22, 2015 1:53am Jun 22, 2015 1:53am
Quoting sonigl
{quote} hi Alfonso, I'm waiting last record of webminar. will you upload it for us? regards 'n thanks sonigl
It's on the youtube channel, you can find link on 1st post. If you subscribe to the channel, you will get notifications on your youtube account.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,735
  • Jun 22, 2015 5:10am Jun 22, 2015 5:10am
Good day Traders especially Alfonso!

My all out support and gratitude to your hard effort of showing us how to draw zones properly with unique set of rules. i've been reading this thread back and forth for months now (especially the first page) and watching all the videos day after day after day and now... i finally understand how the zones work and what the big boys are doing. For years i've been trading different strategies and yet doomed to failure. and yes you're right you have to keep one strategy and stick to it and to marry it. Your rules really helped me to keep away from bad trades. Thank you very much alfonso. Now i am able to keep consistent profits. and you kinda have the sexiest male voice ive ever heard . Please allow me to post my own analysis here using your system and please do correct it. And please continue to inspire us and and mold us to be a consistent profitable trader.

THANK YOU!
  • #5,736
  • Jun 22, 2015 11:15am Jun 22, 2015 11:15am
Hi All,

Juz wanna shared my analysis on NZDCHF, the mkt had broke the support and i am looking to short it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 211 KB
  • #5,737
  • Jun 22, 2015 5:25pm Jun 22, 2015 5:25pm
Quoting marvinmillio
Good day Traders especially Alfonso! My all out support and gratitude to your hard effort of showing us how to draw zones properly with unique set of rules. i've been reading this thread back and forth for months now (especially the first page) and watching all the videos day after day after day and now... i finally understand how the zones work and what the big boys are doing. For years i've been trading different strategies and yet doomed to failure. and yes you're right you have to keep one strategy and stick to it and to marry it. Your rules...
Thanks for sharing your story with us my friend, I really appreciate it. I'm glad to see that the rules are helping you to make progress and feel more confident about your entries and keeping you away from many bad trades.

Thanks for your message, it helps a lot
Night night
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,738
  • Jun 22, 2015 5:27pm Jun 22, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, Juz wanna shared my analysis on NZDCHF, the mkt had broke the support and i am looking to short it. {image}
Shorting NZD/CHF makes sense, thanks for sharing your analysis. NZD is very weak in all cross pairs and we're breaking lower strongly. Similar shorts have happened on NZD/USD, NZD/CAD and others.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,739
  • Jun 23, 2015 2:43am Jun 23, 2015 2:43am
Hello fellow traders,
I have an interesting example here on AUDUSD

M is down at 50% holding for coupple of months
W is down but very low, descending TL broken, price retraced back into area of old demand and nested newly created W demand area (which caused break of the TL) price is starting to raley
D is up
4H was up see TL1, untill TL2 was created, circled 4H demand CP zone broke higher with 2 nice ERC candles.

My question is:
what do we do in this kind of scenarious? TL2 is valid even TL1 was not broken yet.
Was the trade in circled demand valid? It is in confluence with HT trend but against TL2
If the price would drop into the demand zone with no retracement, then no TL2 would exist and trade should be valid.

Thanks in advance for your comments.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD M.jpg Size: 419 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD W.jpg Size: 397 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD D.jpg Size: 428 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 4H.jpg Size: 533 KB
  • #5,740
  • Jun 23, 2015 10:27pm Jun 23, 2015 10:27pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} It's on the youtube channel, you can find link on 1st post. If you subscribe to the channel, you will get notifications on your youtube account. Cheers, Alfonso
I've found this last webinar enlightening like no other as it has cleaned many bits and bobs which usually confuse intermediates like me, it indeed was a direct hit.

Thank you very much!
Trade what you see..
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