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Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Quoting Chawl
{quote} I've found this last webinar enlightening like no other as it has cleaned many bits and bobs which usually confuse intermediates like me, it indeed was a direct hit. Thank you very much!
HiWould you mind post the link for the video please ? Many thankd.
Quoting yyc196
{quote} HiWould you mind post the link for the video please ? Many thankd.
I think i manage to find it thks.
Hello traders,
I have another interesting example for you.
I am attaching 4H chart of GU

M is in consolidation
W is up
D is up high in the curve
4H is up based on ascending TL which was not broken yet, but there is latest descending TL which is connecting last two peaks

I had the long trade setup on the drawn 4H demand zone which is as seen on the chart working for now
I canceled this market order as I spotted the descending TL, another thing that invalidated the trade was that the price is too high in HT Daily curve

Does anybody disagree per the rules with this rational?
Lately I have seen situations when on particular timeframe the trendline was not broken yet but opposing TL was created. This happens when the price is trending by shallow swings and then moves creating one or 2 CPs, then hits opposing zone (mostly CP which is low probability against the current trend) and starts to create shallow swings in opposing trend direction. This creates the flag pattern and for me all the CPs inside this triangle are invalid even no zone was broken. In terms of Zone I mean supply or demand level which should be valid to trade from, but is negated by this not steep newly created opposing TL. Am I correct?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 4H.jpg Size: 477 KB
Quoting digitalko
Hello traders, I have another interesting example for you. I am attaching 4H chart of GU M is in consolidation W is up D is up high in the curve 4H is up based on ascending TL which was not broken yet, but there is latest descending TL which is connecting last two peaks I had the long trade setup on the drawn 4H demand zone which is as seen on the chart working for now I canceled this market order as I spotted the descending TL, another thing that invalidated the trade was that the price is too high in HT Daily curve Does anybody disagree per the...
My H4 view is somewhat different than yours. I'd prefer to wait the daily demand and would see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 32 KB
Trade what you see..
Quoting Chawl
{quote} My H4 view is somewhat different than yours. I'd prefer to wait the daily demand and would see what happens. {image}
Hi,
You are right I overlooked 3CPs
The daily demand zone is in between of D and W EMA what adds confluence, and it is right at the flipzone as well.
As you can see on my chart the D zone is not very clear, created by hammer.
I would wait for 4H confirmation to the upside.

Next chart is USDSGD 4H
This one is the case when two opposing TLs can be drawn
descending TL was not broken yet and in my opinion is valid, unless it is negated by ascending TL which occurred later in time and is connecting 3 drawn CPs
Is the trend UP or DOWN?

In my opinion it is UP as I consider the latest valid TL
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD D.jpg Size: 281 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDSGD 4H.jpg Size: 263 KB
Quoting digitalko
{quote} Hi, You are right I overlooked 3CPs The daily demand zone is in between of D and W EMA what adds confluence, and it is right at the flipzone as well. As you can see on my chart the D zone is not very clear, created by hammer. I would wait for 4H confirmation to the upside. Next chart is USDSGD 4H This one is the case when two opposing TLs can be drawn descending TL was not broken yet and in my opinion is valid, unless it is negated by ascending TL which occurred later in time and is connecting 3 drawn CPs Is the trend UP or DOWN? In my opinion...
If I'm not wrong, we can not say that we are in an up trend only by looking only to the latest trend line but a supply zone had to be be eliminated also. I don't have this pair on my broker so I can't check myself, BUT if "1" is really a valid supply zone, then "2" and "3" are valid demand zones also, thus we can say that there is an up trend on H4, if otherwise, then we have only consolidation but I still don't know if "3:1 move away of price makes a zone valid" rule could be applied to "3" anyway, so Alfonso might kindly clear this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDSGD 4H.jpg Size: 222 KB
Trade what you see..
Quoting Chawl
{quote} If I'm not wrong, we can not say that we are in an up trend only by looking only to the latest trend line but a supply zone had to be be eliminated also. I don't have this pair on my broker so I can't check myself, BUT if "1" is really a valid supply zone, then "2" and "3" are valid demand zones also, thus we can say that there is an up trend on H4, if otherwise, then we have only consolidation. {image}
Exactly as you explained. We are in 4H up trend even the previous descending TL is not broken.Do we invalidate the previous TL as new trend occurs as in this scenario or not?Alfonso please make it clear for us.Thank you in advance.
Quoting digitalko
{quote} Exactly as you explained. We are in 4H up trend even the previous descending TL is not broken.Do we invalidate the previous TL as new trend occurs as in this scenario or not?Alfonso please make it clear for us.Thank you in advance.
If I'm confused, I generally take trend lines into account secondarily but primarily focus on which types zones are created and eliminated lately. Alfonso might kindly judge my trend assessment strategy also
Trade what you see..
Hi All,

Saw this setup and felt that it is quite nice, the weekly removed Dz and now daily mkt is returning back to test the zones as shown by the blue and yellow lines. Yellow line should be higher odds, i guess.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 96 KB
HI traders!
M down barely has broken SZ.
W up
4h Didn't brake D but if. We have a sell at S. This supply broke the TL.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot7.png Size: 250 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot8.png Size: 256 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot9.png Size: 256 KB
Quoting Bigotibor
HI traders! M down barely has broken SZ. W up 4h Didn't brake D but if. We have a sell at S. This supply broke the TL. {image} {image} {image}
I want to play the devil's advocate and shake your AUDNZD analysis a bit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDWeekly.png Size: 56 KB
Trade what you see..
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, Saw this setup and felt that it is quite nice, the weekly removed Dz and now daily mkt is returning back to test the zones as shown by the blue and yellow lines. Yellow line should be higher odds, i guess. {image} {image}
As daily descending TL was broken, I think blue trade will be very risky though it sports an original and fresh daily SZ, so I'm with you that yellow will be a higher probability/lower risk trade as it is nested in a weekly supply BUT if price climbs quick enough without breaking the weekly descending TL, otherwise we should rely on a monthly SZ.

I want to make another point here. Although monthly has an illusion of downtrend as we can connect two peaks with a descending TL and an opposing demand was eliminated, price still didn't close under breached DZ and didn't consolidate away the monthly ascending TL but just sits on it, so I think monthly is still up, at best in a consolidation, so shorts might be CT now, I hope Alfonso might clear this. What's more, 'fat fingers' who will be acting upon monthly bar close 5 days later may very well shake the lower time frames, especially during the times when price is dancing on the edges like now.

And a note to community, I hope I haven't annoyed you people by commenting too much in the absence of Alfonso but I think community discussions are also quite beneficial for learning and arouse new questions for Alfonso to clear, so I take the risk
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADMonthly.png Size: 54 KB
Trade what you see..
Quoting Chawl
{quote} As daily descending TL was broken, I think blue trade will be very risky though it sports an original and fresh daily SZ, so I'm with you that yellow will be a higher probability/lower risk trade as it is nested in a weekly supply BUT if price climbs quick enough without breaking the weekly descending TL, otherwise we should rely on a monthly SZ. I want to make another point here. Although monthly has an illusion of downtrend as we can connect two peaks with a descending TL and an opposing demand was eliminated, price still didn't close...
Hi Chawl,

Thank you so much for the deep analysis, love to see this kind of comments. Alfonso and some of you have make the discussion here so interactive and interesting. As market is dynamic it is good to see different people with different angle of perspective
Quoting yyc196
{quote} Hi Chawl, Thank you so much for the deep analysis, love to see this kind of comments. Alfonso and some of you have make the discussion here so interactive and interesting. As market is dynamic it is good to see different people with different angle of perspective
U r welcome I wish Alfonso could comment here soon too.
Trade what you see..
hello guys...

i'd like to share my cable analysis, here the chart....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDproDaily_260615.png Size: 79 KB

My plan is make a BUY LIMIT @1.51520

i'd like to hear any comment of you guys....

regards,
sonigl
Quoting Chawl
{quote} I've found this last webinar enlightening like no other as it has cleaned many bits and bobs which usually confuse intermediates like me, it indeed was a direct hit. Thank you very much!
Glad you found the webinar useful and enlightening my friend, glad to help! You are welcome!
Have a great weekend

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting digitalko
Hello fellow traders, I have an interesting example here on AUDUSD M is down at 50% holding for coupple of months W is down but very low, descending TL broken, price retraced back into area of old demand and nested newly created W demand area (which caused break of the TL) price is starting to raley D is up 4H was up see TL1, untill TL2 was created, circled 4H demand CP zone broke higher with 2 nice ERC candles. My question is: what do we do in this kind of scenarious? TL2 is valid even TL1 was not broken yet. Was the trade in circled demand valid?...
AUD/USD is in a bigger picture downtrend, when that happens, short is the way to go on strong supply zones and brand new zones created at HTF zones. Longs can and will work many times, you just have to decide which TF and direction you want to take.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting Bigotibor
HI traders! M down barely has broken SZ. W up 4h Didn't brake D but if. We have a sell at S. This supply broke the TL. {image} {image} {image}
Bigger picture is down on AUD/NZD, monthly supply zone in control. Short is the way to go.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting sonigl
hello guys... i'd like to share my cable analysis, here the chart.... {image} My plan is make a BUY LIMIT @1.51520 i'd like to hear any comment of you guys.... regards, sonigl
I'll probably take the risk to go long around 1.55270. Here's my daily view of GBPUSD:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 57 KB
Trade what you see..
Quoting Chawl
{quote} I'll probably take the risk to go long around 1.55270. Here's my daily view of GBPUSD: {image}
here is my explanation on chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDproDaily_260615_3.png Size: 49 KB


thx & regards,
sonigl
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