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Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness

  • #181
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:04pm Jun 16, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting DavidRP
10 pages of nothing..
Yes!
To Gobigfx: Do you want to learn us or increase your ego?
  • #182
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:58pm Jun 16, 2015 1:58pm
I think his method is in the first post:


So when is price movement not random ?

10% of the time when some information enters the market that changes the randomness and forces the majority of institutions and their clients to adjust their positions to account for the new information.
Just look at any chart and look at when price moves and if you count the total number of bars where price moves in an opposing or changing direction you will see this is about 10% of the time. The rest of the time is just Random Noise of orders being filled back and forth.

He trades News events.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #183
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:46pm Jun 16, 2015 3:46pm
Currency Overlay, Google it.

Market = Random.
  • #184
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:46pm Jun 16, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting Shabs19
I think his method is in the first post: So when is price movement not random ? 10% of the time when some information enters the market that changes the randomness and forces the majority of institutions and their clients to adjust their positions to account for the new information. Just look at any chart and look at when price moves and if you count the total number of bars where price moves in an opposing or changing direction you will see this is about 10% of the time. The rest of the time is just Random Noise of orders being filled back and...

Finally someone gets it and of course its the guy with the least to prove and the most open mind.

YES I trade AFTER news events or any other Non Random event that causes price to move to adjust to imbalance of orders. Once order balance again then Randomness pursuers.

  • #185
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:53pm Jun 16, 2015 3:53pm
There's a difference between constructive debate and immature ego driven posts. I wish the latter would leave the room. I haven't drawn any conclusions properly yet but would like the opportunity to do so. I can't hear the man for all the noise!
  • #186
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:22pm Jun 16, 2015 4:22pm
This is VWAP , there are many developers that have it and the developer doesn't matter I purposely removed this developer because I do not wish to promote a particular product or service.

This is what matters the most to institutional traders.

I will expand on the topic as we go along BUT I would like your help to shut up the ignorant haters please. It's one thing if I tell them to shut up its another thing if the good people of this forum who want to learn tell them to shut up.
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  • #187
  • Jun 16, 2015 4:42pm Jun 16, 2015 4:42pm
Notice how there are only about 11 bars during this entire move were price moves to lower VWAP extremes.

This is the Non Random Behavior of Imbalance

Everything else Except the top levels of VWAP is Random !!!

So is this 90% if the time ?

Thats all for now.
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  • #188
  • Jun 16, 2015 5:31pm Jun 16, 2015 5:31pm
Quoting Hyperion
There's a difference between constructive debate and immature ego driven posts. I wish the latter would leave the room. I haven't drawn any conclusions properly yet but would like the opportunity to do so. I can't hear the man for all the noise!
could not agree more So Trolls please shut the fuck up!
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #189
  • Jun 16, 2015 6:04pm Jun 16, 2015 6:04pm
Quoting Gobigfx
So I've been wanting to write this post for a few years but I knew it would meet with a lot of anger and objection but here goes anyways. You all are living an imaginary dream. A career as a retail trader long term (7 plus years) is almost impossible, the ratio is not 5% its more like 1%. I have been trading for a very long time and the only reason that I have survived multiple market conditions is because I was mentored for 1 year as a floor trader and then for another few years as a desk trader for a few institutions. After I left the "professional"...
i think with 6 billion people or more on plant earth and more than 800 trillion in assets for Europe alone your orders is nothing and your talk carries a lot of wrong guidance
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #190
  • Jun 16, 2015 6:32pm Jun 16, 2015 6:32pm
Quoting Shabs19
I think his method is in the first post: So when is price movement not random ? 10% of the time when some information enters the market that changes the randomness and forces the majority of institutions and their clients to adjust their positions to account for the new information. Just look at any chart and look at when price moves and if you count the total number of bars where price moves in an opposing or changing direction you will see this is about 10% of the time. The rest of the time is just Random Noise of orders being filled back and...
I been reading this thread, have posted twice with my views, and the next thing I just did was to re-read the first post and these points transpired and I believe are relevant for us retail forex traders:

10% of the time, information is released onto the market that forces a change in the direction of price, to adjust as per the released information: Shabs19 went ahead and found this already, he trades news but I don't believe he trades all type of news, I'm sure he trades NFP, FOMC, RBA, RBNZ, all the important news only, fair enough.
Review charts (there's not details as to what timeframes to check, let's assume the daily) count bars when there's a price change and this will amount to 10%, so I guess he seeks for direction in trend, counts 10 bars and enters on the 11th tick on the direction of the trend, am I correct?
  • #191
  • Jun 16, 2015 6:42pm Jun 16, 2015 6:42pm
Quoting bmun2348
{quote} I been reading this thread, have posted twice with my views, and the next thing I just did was to re-read the first post and these points transpired and I believe are relevant for us retail forex traders: 10% of the time, information is released onto the market that forces a change in the direction of price, to adjust as per the released information: Shabs19 went ahead and found this already, he trades news but I don't believe he trades all type of news, I'm sure he trades NFP, FOMC, RBA, RBNZ, all the important news only, fair enough. Review...
I trade 30 min charts see above.

This is the starting point that you should be working from because anything less is strictly for scalping 5 ticks or less.
  • #192
  • Jun 16, 2015 6:48pm Jun 16, 2015 6:48pm
Very interesting Gobigfx. Please continue.
The better looser you are the better winner you are
  • #193
  • Edited 7:08pm Jun 16, 2015 6:54pm | Edited 7:08pm
I do agree with the idea that there is much more randomness in the markets than we are willing to accept. I'm open to explore that notion more through this thread and hope we can get some good exploration without too much detraction.

When GoBigFX is saying to use the vwap, and then posts a chart of the futures it left me with concern.
- How do you vwap the less liquid majors? Such as NZD/USD for example where the futures volume is negligible.
- What do you vwap against if you had to execute on a cross rate? EUR/JPY for example.
- Are you being benchmarked against a daily vwap each day or a vwap that starts from your operation and lasts for X days? I assume some operations can take days or weeks to fulfill.

Finally, outside of vwap, how are you deciding when to actually execute your trade idea and how are you managing it?

With kind regards,
MK
  • #194
  • Jun 16, 2015 7:02pm Jun 16, 2015 7:02pm
Quoting iamsovereign
{quote} could not agree more So Trolls please shut the fuck up!
I second this, if you don't like this, just leave, everybody is entitled to speak their minds.

By the way, he has posted VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average price) charts, remember what he posted regarding his work on trade desk, they make sure not to let the positions to go over the volume weighted average price and not become the market, keen to hear more about this trading system.
  • #195
  • Jun 16, 2015 7:15pm Jun 16, 2015 7:15pm
Quoting MidKnight
I do agree with the idea that there is much more randomness in the markets than we are willing to accept. I'm open to explore that notion more through this thread and hope we can get some good exploration without too much detraction. When GoBigFX is saying to use the vwap, and then posts a chart of the futures it left me with concern. - How do you vwap the less liquid majors? Such as NZD/USD for example where the futures volume is negligible. - What do you vwap against if you had to execute on a cross rate? EUR/JPY for example. - Are you being benchmarked...
You can get VWAP for crosses but crosses will always be more difficult because then there are 2 factors to consider the vwap of each pair instrument and the vwap of the pair together.

Remember VWAP is just the start of how we are going to use the 10% Non Random times to our advantage.

More to come soon
  • #196
  • Jun 16, 2015 7:15pm Jun 16, 2015 7:15pm
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} It's nice to see intelligent people in this thread Once we understand the true randomness of price then we can "start" to construct models and assumptions to exploit the randomness because as you clearly read from my posts the randomness has "some" structure to it ... congratulations sir you are on your way to millions. The problem with most traders is they are spending too much time looking at the randomness of the market when in fact the meat of the trading is to watch the Non Random times because that is where we shall find clarity....
good day Gobigfx, you have a big heart, so stop entertaining those who oppose you, it's just a waste of time arguing with people on the internet who are rather close minded.

what you have posted about random, crucialpoint has a detailed and better explanation below

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=3465822

FYI, this kind of gems along with some other good posts are buried in the dustbin, so you know what kind of place FF is. however I do spend some time each day to get myself entertained here, really, or once awhile dig the dustbin to find some unknown gems, see you can experience something that cannot be experienced in real life.

so my suggestion to you sir, continue posting your thoughts, and click the ignore button if some people are so disturbing.

I want to see what you have got, to be honest just for my own curiosity.

edit: be clearer
  • #197
  • Jun 16, 2015 7:28pm Jun 16, 2015 7:28pm
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} You can get VWAP for crosses but crosses will always be more difficult because then there are 2 factors to consider the vwap of each pair instrument and the vwap of the pair together. Remember VWAP is just the start of how we are going to use the 10% Non Random times to our advantage. More to come soon
I can appreciate that they will be more difficult to asses that is why I'm asking what the bank does. I'm asking what you guys did in the institution to assess performance and allocate bonuses if applicable. This should be a cut and dry question for an institution to answer, no? same goes for less liquid pairs like nzd/usd where the futures will do such low volumes.

With kind regards,
MK
  • #198
  • Jun 16, 2015 8:01pm Jun 16, 2015 8:01pm
Quoting MidKnight
{quote} I can appreciate that they will be more difficult to asses that is why I'm asking what the bank does. I'm asking what you guys did in the institution to assess performance and allocate bonuses if applicable. This should be a cut and dry question for an institution to answer, no? same goes for less liquid pairs like nzd/usd where the futures will do such low volumes. With kind regards, MK
We have guys that specialize in each pair I personally only trade futures so I can not comment on exactly how the cross specialists do it because I never worked on those desks sorry.
  • #199
  • Jun 16, 2015 8:13pm Jun 16, 2015 8:13pm
Wednesdays Imbalances

Ok big day tomorrow Fed Day so all of these imbalances can change and are only good till 2 est and then NEW information will entry the market and may cause new imbalances with non random behavior so BE CAREFUL I will probably be trading CL / Oil tommorw
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  • #200
  • Edited 10:25pm Jun 16, 2015 9:40pm | Edited 10:25pm
This is fresh GC chart one of my templates.
Notice the Accumulation
Price either will break out up or down but notice within this period price has been hitting BB upper and lower bands but it is not random otherwise the movements could not be this uniform.

My advise to new traders is this
Devise 2 trading systems range and trending and recognize when to apply each.
When I trade range I usually always trade towards dominate daily weekly direction just in case if it does break out you are on right side and what starts as range trading becomes a running trend trading.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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