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Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness

  • #161
  • Jun 16, 2015 8:04am Jun 16, 2015 8:04am
Thanks for your effort into speaking the truth Gobigfx. I hope you continue even if some/many don't like what you have to say.

You got me hooked even more with the following:
"Emotions only effect the retail trader and have nothing to do with how the market moves at all."

I never bought the idea that emotions where driving the market. How can one say this and then say that successful traders are trading with no emotions by following a strict plan. I mean... the market is certainly not driven by unsuccessful traders!
  • #162
  • Jun 16, 2015 8:49am Jun 16, 2015 8:49am
Successful traders spot the opportunities early enough to be able to construct a plan of entry, risk control & profit objective.
They have developed an edge that gives them consistently more winners than losers.
Then they must have the discipline to carry out the same plan again & again.
They constantly monitor their results and only tweak if it improves their edge.
Emotions should not come into it, you have to treat this as a business.
Emotions is gambling. Hobbies are for fun, you decide.

Having "closed minds" in this business does not help. Learn from successful people.
Find out for yourself what works for you, then apply it.
You will find out very quickly the Gold from the Bull....
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #163
  • Jun 16, 2015 8:58am Jun 16, 2015 8:58am
Quoting Gobigfx
Tuesday Trades There are NO EDGES today RANDOM MARKETS stay out !!!
How did you come to this conclusion? What in today's market told you "I'm random, stay away from me"?

I mean no offense when I say this but, you've offered no insight into your theory that the market is 90% random. I've read the entire thread and I see no examples of a trade in progress or any sort of previously completed trades. You did say AU long and sure enough AU was higher yesterday, but how and why did you come to that conclusion. Was it a market imbalance in price? A support level? The tooth fairy told you? Again, I mean no offense but you're really not offering anything concrete, so the criticism may be well deserved.

Until I see something a little more concrete, I remain sceptical however, still intrigued.
  • #164
  • Jun 16, 2015 8:59am Jun 16, 2015 8:59am
Quoting Shabs19
Successful traders spot the opportunities early enough to be able to construct a plan of entry, risk control & profit objective. They have developed an edge that gives them consistently more winners than losers. Then they must have the discipline to carry out the same plan again & again. They constantly monitor their results and only tweak if it improves their edge. Emotions should not come into it, you have to treat this as a business. Emotions is gambling. Hobbies are for fun, you decide. Having "closed minds" in this business does not help. Learn...

What Shab says here is critical for your growth as a retail trader !!!

IF a trader has a closed mind about learning then what do you think his mind will be like in a Trade ?

IF you are not willing to change your mind when you are proven wrong by the market then you are doomed as a trader.
  • #165
  • Jun 16, 2015 9:03am Jun 16, 2015 9:03am
Quoting Shabs19
Successful traders spot the opportunities early enough to be able to construct a plan of entry, risk control & profit objective. They have developed an edge that gives them consistently more winners than losers. Then they must have the discipline to carry out the same plan again & again. They constantly monitor their results and only tweak if it improves their edge. Emotions should not come into it, you have to treat this as a business. Emotions is gambling. Hobbies are for fun, you decide. Having "closed minds" in this...
Everything you said is true except the point 2 (in Blue bold)

You don't need more winners than losers. You need your winners (in terms of pips or percentage to be better than the losers)
Being wrong 7 times out 10 but bagging 100 pips on your winners and losing 10 pips on your losers is another possibility
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #166
  • Jun 16, 2015 9:18am Jun 16, 2015 9:18am
To maintain your discipline in following your method, you must have an edge.
If you do not have an edge, how long will it be before you chop & change strategies ?

Greatest myth out there is good money management will make you successful over the long term.
You need a sound methodology first. This is a mental game, losing trades will wear you down eventually, until you
stop taking trades because you expect it to lose.

Gobigfx is trying to show you that if you learn how to spot institutional activity on a price chart, you can position yourself to
profit from their activity. The rest of the time you are at the mercy of market noise. Staying out of the market can also be profitable
to your bank balance.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #167
  • Jun 16, 2015 10:23am Jun 16, 2015 10:23am
Wow! What a bunch of nonsense! If anything it's the exact opposite. 10% random.

Look at my explorer (not to brag but to make a point). 19 winning trades in a row with less than %4 drawdown. (Not like 'wanna be' traders keeping trades open until they come back). So how did I do that if the market is random ? I got lucky a few times, ok! But 19 times in a row ? How can anyone get lucky 19 times in a row if there is no pattern to predict and it's all random?


Market is NOT random. Not even close. The game is about filling up orders for large clients. And they don't go around and put random orders to fill. Sellers follow buyers, buyers follow sellers. It's a 24/7 cat game and it creates patterns. If it has a pattern then it's not random.
  • #168
  • Jun 16, 2015 10:25am Jun 16, 2015 10:25am
Quoting Relativity
90% Random? I think more of like maybe close to 60 to 80% non random so long you found out where to look....
I would say that the non random is > 80% if you know what to look for. Attached you find results from my neural forecast as I close in on eliminating the randomness within the market. You can see my forecast and my error.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sum of Net.jpg Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sum of Error.jpg Size: 155 KB
  • #169
  • Jun 16, 2015 10:37am Jun 16, 2015 10:37am
With all due respect to the OP he has admitted that he is a failed trader (in terms of retail trading on his own account.)

On that basis why would people want to copy his methods? That would make no sense would it.

Whilst I agree with a few of the points made by the OP I find myself disagreeing with much of what he writes.


Price movement may well be largely unpredictable but this does not mean that markets cannot be traded. Besides, what constitutes 'randomness' will be different from person to person. Some people have developed abilities to strip away meaningless price action and focus on what matters.

Over the years I have personally developed several methods of trading. I have been largely profitable. Having said that, market dynamics change. And with those changes comes the need for personal change. However, the markets continue to operate in the same way that they have for many many years.

For me personally the key to successful trading is the correct analysis of Support and Resistance levels over several time-frames. This might not work for everyone but it has worked for me. The key is to enter trades on (or very near) key levels. You can never know in advance whether a trade will work or not and anyone who tells you that they can 'predict' the outcome of a trade is probably lying! In entering at key levels you find out very quickly if your trade is a good one or not. Price tends not to hang around at key levels if supply or demand is short. The advantage which a retail trader has is speed; the ability to move in and out of the market quickly at reasonably low costs. It's also important to recognise the 'type' of market condition which is currently prevailing when you come to trade; that only comes with experience I'm afraid.


Ultimately it is possible to earn good money trading forex, it's just a matter of developing a strategy which suits the individual.
  • #170
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:15am Jun 16, 2015 11:15am
Quoting stevespray
With all due respect to the OP he has admitted that he is a failed trader (in terms of retail trading on his own account.) On that basis why would people want to copy his methods? That would make no sense would it. Whilst I agree with a few of the points made by the OP I find myself disagreeing with much of what he writes. Price movement may well be largely unpredictable but this does not mean that markets cannot be traded. Besides, what constitutes 'randomness' will be different from person to person. Some people have developed...
You have summed it up well. The OP is broadcasting BS since he started this thread.
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #171
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:16am Jun 16, 2015 11:16am
Quoting cenetti
Wow! What a bunch of nonsense! If anything it's the exact opposite. 10% random. Look at my explorer (not to brag but to make a point). 19 winning trades in a row with less than %4 drawdown. (Not like 'wanna be' traders keeping trades open until they come back). So how did I do that if the market is random ? I got lucky a few times, ok! But 19 times in a row ? How can anyone get lucky 19 times in a row if there is no pattern to predict and it's all random? Market is NOT random. Not even close. The game is about filling up orders for large clients....
Thank you sir. A bunch of nonsense indeed.
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #172
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:18am Jun 16, 2015 11:18am
Quoting stevespray
With all due respect to the OP he has admitted that he is a failed trader (in terms of retail trading on his own account.)

I did no such thing I make millions my friend lol

I said when I started out off the institutional desks I failed but carry on
  • #173
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:27am Jun 16, 2015 11:27am
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} This Dude is such a pathetic excuse of life it is hilarious ! He has written me 5 emails all hating on me for sharing FREE knowledge with you guys about my many years as a institutional trader. Meanwhile he trades a 2k account HAHAHAHAHA ! Its people like this that feed your ignorance in trading folks and they keep you in the Dream. This forum is filled with failed traders and they spew their hate and failure onto you and because you don't know any better they keep you focused on the illusions that constrict your growth and incomes. They...
Talk about hatred. You can accuse me, insult me and try to convince others that I am wrong I do not care.

Fact is you have nothing to offer and boasting about your knowledge will take you nowhere.

Your arrogance knows no boundaries by declaring that you know much,much,much more without any proof.

I do not hate .I live free. I do however have an issue with boys like you pretending you know it all and keep on posting rubbish.

Let's call you the "Guru of Randomness" . Hope it makes you feel better now that you have a title.

G
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #174
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:31am Jun 16, 2015 11:31am
Quoting Cobra
{quote} Talk about hatred. You can accuse me, insult me and try to convince others that I am wrong I do not care. Fact is you have nothing to offer and boasting about your knowledge will take you nowhere. Your arrogance knows no boundaries by declaring that you know much,much,much more without any proof. I do not hate .I live free. I do however have an issue with boys like you pretending you know it all and keep on posting rubbish. Let's call you the "Guru of Randomness" . Hope it makes you feel better now that you have a title. G
Shouldn't you be managing that huge $2000 account of yours right now ?

My commission per trade is almost 1/4 your whole account lol
  • #175
  • Jun 16, 2015 12:07pm Jun 16, 2015 12:07pm
Seems to me that what the OP was really meaning is that not even professional traders have a clue about where price will go.

And it's true, the average professional trader do simply fill orders for a third party (an investor or a company looking to hedge risk etc), as a result, if we take 10 professional traders and give them an account to trade, probably 9 of them would end up loosing money.

In other words, professional traders are nothing special compared to retail traders. Retails are probably more good!

What the OP fail to understand is that there are many successful retail traders around the world, and none of them think market is random.

As for me, I think there are times when market move (call it trend call it momentum or whatever) and just by going with the flow, profits can be made.
There are times then where market is not engaged in any major movement, and it go up and down in what can be considered an unpredictable way (call it random if you want).
The thing is a little bit more complicated than this, but who cares.

My advice to the OP: keep your mind open
  • #176
  • Edited 1:42pm Jun 16, 2015 1:32pm | Edited 1:42pm
In general.... So what!,.... the OP chose to use the word random for those times when price appears to just float around with no clear direction. The word random within these trading forums equals fighting words. Always has and always will. Is it possible to just get passed that word?... just for now....

Personally, I would like to hear more about how the OP views the market so I hope you maniacs don't piss this person away. Let em' speak. If you're making money with your view of the market, that's great. Why would you care about how another views the market and makes money or bullshits? Who's to say without getting access to the bank account.
Relax, I want to hear more. If it's crap, just walk away quietly and continue counting all your green.
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #177
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:37pm Jun 16, 2015 1:37pm
It's sad when it all degenerates into an ego match.

There are many ways to trade the markets, some better than others, some totally based on logic & maths and some totally
irrational & gut feel. The bottom line is always can it produce for you consistent profits ?

So what if he trades using horizontal lines, fibs, harmonics, moving averages, candle patterns or gut instincts ?
What is important, is that it suits your trading style.

You don't have to be the smartest man on the planet to trade forex and with the biggest account to prove anything.
What is a good income for one does not fit all.

There are also traders at different levels of understanding of the forex market, one size does not fit all.
We all learn at different speeds, so have to be patient to learn from people that are more advanced or proven.
This business has many levels of understanding before it can be fully mastered.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #178
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:44pm Jun 16, 2015 1:44pm
I read your thread and there are my beliefs. The price moves with significant volume because market maker makes the price. Who are the market makers? There are the central banks. They move the price because they have specific mandate based on economics large scale (i.e. quantitative release US bank, JP Bank and now EU Bank). As a retail trader, one way to win money is to watch where the money flows on the graphics D1.

Market is not so random AND almost news are noise.

When the central banks decide to move the market, they make pattern based on “price and volume” and this is what I am looking for on D1 frame to generate a trade setup on H4; if I trade in the same way as the central banks, I pyramid the position. If I’m wrong, I take the losses and I’m waiting for the next.

EVERYDAY MARKET GIVES OPPORTUNITIES. PATIENCE AND MONEY MANAGEMENT SHOULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE.

When we go deeper in the market like frame M5, we are playing with the noise and rumour. In fact, every time frame is good and there is no specific rule to trade and make money. I believe the time frame is in correlation with the trader’s strategy. It’s the same as the color: you like or not!

Trading looks like grandma who makes a cookie in the kitchen :-)

Enjoy the trades!
  • #179
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:58pm Jun 16, 2015 1:58pm
177 posts, 9 pages, and still not a shred of information from Gobigfx... I don't know if he is a good trader but he sure could be a good politician, if not a sect guru...
  • #180
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:14pm Jun 16, 2015 2:14pm
10 pages of nothing..
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