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Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness

  • #141
  • Jun 15, 2015 5:23pm Jun 15, 2015 5:23pm
The big factor in forex markets are the central banks. When they start intervening than the market becomes non random. They can push or drop the prices to whatever level they feel is better for their economy. Once another central bank starts intervening against the first central bank than there comes another story, currency wars. Retail traders dont even cause a blip on the charts, not even hedge funds.

As long as central banks have electronic money in their disposal nothing can beat their targets. Only other strong central banks who are competing might effect the price. Who can stand against ECB, FED and Swiss Central Bank? Only one of them can stand against the other, thats all. If one of the central banks decide to take action, Soros would be a blip on the chart too.

Also central banks dont always need the electronic money either. They can easily spew out few words to scare the buyer or encourage the sellers.

So in my view it is only the central banks who play a big role in this market, the rest is noise (randomness)....
Swiss central bank decided to free the currency cap. Everybody knows what happened. So there is the proof of power coming out of mouths. If that wasnt enough they would have achieved the same result by using electronic money. Can you imagine what kind of money could be made if you knew that decision 5 minutes before? I bet there were some people in Swiss circle who knew that before it happened!

That is my 2 cents.
  • #142
  • Jun 15, 2015 5:28pm Jun 15, 2015 5:28pm
Quoting Gobigfx
So I've been wanting to write this post for a few years but I knew it would meet with a lot of anger and objection but here goes anyways. You all are living an imaginary dream. A career as a retail trader long term (7 plus years) is almost impossible, the ratio is not 5% its more like 1%. I have been trading for a very long time and the only reason that I have survived multiple market conditions is because I was mentored for 1 year as a floor trader and then for another few years as a desk trader for a few institutions. After I left the "professional"...

There are several cases like yours. Psychological factor is the key; you are risking your own money.

Price is just as random as the mass of people behind it.
This isn't a game of numbers, it's a game of people.

Take a deep breath, stay away from your terminal for a couple of weeks, and then try again.


I've been where you are right now.
Feel free of contact me if you need some kind of help, there's nothing wrong in asking for it.

Kind regards,
MF.
Trade, don't bet.
  • #143
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:23pm Jun 15, 2015 6:23pm
Quoting Hyperion
{quote} 'like it... I call these times decision points, i.e. initial move because of point 4 above...then pause... here's where you trade. Trade the decision points and point 5 eventuates... This is the vertical move where you make your money, the rest of the time the market is just washing around absorbing people's beliefs/predictions, random noise call it whatever you want. It's not a market I want to be in.
Now your on to "something big" good stuff !!!
  • #144
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:26pm Jun 15, 2015 6:26pm
Quoting MarketFox
{quote} \ Price is just as random as the mass of people behind it. This isn't a game of numbers, it's a game of people. .
Wrong this is lie number 3 the brokers and marketers want you to believe its a game of business and time frames. Emotions only effect the retail trader and have nothing to do with how the market moves at all. Mercedes Benz or Goldman Sachs has no emotions at all they have a objective to protect their business profits or to make new profits. Then they simple place the orders and the computers or traders mange the risk.

As for your recommendation to step away from trading I don't know why I would do that since I'm making more money at it then probably this whole forum combined but I do appreciate the kindness and offer for help that was very generous of you.
  • #145
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:34pm Jun 15, 2015 6:34pm
Quoting GoldTheHun
The big factor in forex markets are the central banks. When they start intervening than the market becomes non random. They can push or drop the prices to whatever level they feel is better for their economy. Once another central bank starts intervening against the first central bank than there comes another story, currency wars. Retail traders dont even cause a blip on the charts, not even hedge funds. As long as central banks have electronic money in their disposal nothing can beat their targets. Only other strong central banks who are competing...
Excellent Excellent Excellent what the central banks do is a perfect example of a non random event and move. But that happens alot more then you think and it doesn't take a central bank it just takes new information to enter the market
  • #146
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:11pm Jun 15, 2015 7:11pm
I have to agree with GoBigFX. First post on this forum. He's got a few things skewed. Emotions, plenty of spec traders with solid track records have ocassionaly smashed phones and screens in a rage. I've worked on a speculative fx desk and can say without question there are a few guys that can GRIND profit month after month and year after year, but not many. Only 1-2% of traders can consistently outperform a benchmark. Everyone on this thread can do it too....good luck. A lot of this world is managing flows and the speculative market of professional traders is shrinking (at least thats what I've heard around the water cooler). Anyone turning 1000% profit month after month will be a trillionaire in a few years or back to their mini account.
  • #147
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:45pm Jun 15, 2015 7:45pm
90% Random? I think more of like maybe close to 60 to 80% non random so long you found out where to look....
  • #148
  • Edited Jun 16, 2015 2:13pm Jun 15, 2015 9:30pm | Edited Jun 16, 2015 2:13pm
Aren't the fundamentals of put and call's INSURANCE over a timed period? An European airline placed an order at Boeing for a new jet and come pay time 6 months down the track the price towards neither of them shifted? Whoever took the currency risk say it buying or selling side took out INSURANCE (put or call) so they would not be unpleasantly surprised? Don't Central Banks have the duty to stabilize the currencies against each other so global business can be done without extreme INSURANCE premiums?

That INSURANCE was to protect companies against RANDOM events like currency fluctuations... Isn't insurance always for random events into the unknown?

Ever since Soros https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday was able to partly overthrow that stabilizing mechanism of the European Central Banks the INSURANCE premiums went up and needed to be spread... right or wrong? But it is still INSURANCE so random in basics.

I've joined the now BOINC (Climatechange, SETI, etc) project late 1980's to assist in making as many calculations possible with updating inputs to see where the global climate is heading. The majority of the calculations go in a certain direction and that is the most likely way the climate will go. That heading is still RANDOM as the calculations are also all over the place.

The percentage of time pairs are trending is the heading and most likely but is still random... The decision WHEN (and lesser if) Draghi was heading for QE was for us retailers random but setting EUR pending down after the XMAS peak looked pretty obvious but those events are rare.

Happy trading
  • #149
  • Jun 16, 2015 12:31am Jun 16, 2015 12:31am
Quite a spill here with the power of the Ego. "Trading" that word in place of "Feast". Were all sportsmen in this together tightly woven as both "Friend and Foe". We collaborate here as if we are individually self sufficient and all giving. If we were all to be put together in a large room and told each man for himself, the simple realization would be evident. All the bags of tricks and gimmicks would quickly become stone age babble!

Trading is art likend to the scribbles that most just look at in awe of "What's it trying to say or convey?" Absolutely nothing in absolute. Individual perception is what creates the Ebb N Flow. A straight line from ones eye level prospective vs another's abstraction of indications giving him/her a 28MM Fish eye view of that same line, This is the crux of the confluence that simply creates "Motion By Interaction".

Most traders completely miss the Moves by watching, waiting for something to tell them it's ok to trade it! That was the trade simply "what you saw and missed." We all see this ongoing dilemma until that 'Something" clicks inside and one realizes trading well was not about learning Techno Babble, It was about engaging the moment of opportunity!

P.S. Market is Market Be It trading pencil shavings or large gold buttons. It's the resulting action of "Interaction" not the object of reference.

Trade For Effect.. Trade Well This in return will Affect us all.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #150
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:35am Jun 16, 2015 1:35am
Quoting MidKnight
{quote} You miss nubcake's point entirely. Do as he asks please and maybe the lightbulb will switch on. If you can turn off the price series, move the chart around a bunch and draw some random horizontal lines, then turn on the price series. You will see the same thing we see with any S/R lines - flips, false breaks, repeated tests etc. If that can happen with completely nonsense lines - consistently, well then....think about it. His paragraph makes perfect sense, but you are locked into defending your belief rather than thinking another reality...
Bloody hell, I didn't think this could be possible, I went to EURCAD Daily chart, drew a random trend line, didn't make much sense but look at the Fibonacci, it was totally randomly placed and price bounced at 23.6, 100 and 161.8, amazing totally random.
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  • #151
  • Jun 16, 2015 1:48am Jun 16, 2015 1:48am
Great Thread GobigFx ! Couldn't agree more... Random it is!

It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.

― Mark Twain
  • #152
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:02am Jun 16, 2015 3:02am
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Wrong this is lie number 3 the brokers and marketers want you to believe its a game of business and time frames. Emotions only effect the retail trader and have nothing to do with how the market moves at all. Mercedes Benz or Goldman Sachs has no emotions at all they have a objective to protect their business profits or to make new profits. Then they simple place the orders and the computers or traders mange the risk. As for your recommendation to step away from trading I don't know why I would do that since I'm making more money at...
A comment that screams you have no class, and most likely no money. Regardless of peoples success at trading you do realise that there are other ways to earn money? A good career, family business, inheritance even the lottery. You have no idea about any members financial situation.

There's nothing worse than sarcastic sincerity...
  • #153
  • Jun 16, 2015 3:32am Jun 16, 2015 3:32am
Quoting Gareth22
{quote} A comment that screams you have no class, and most likely no money. Regardless of peoples success at trading you do realise that there are other ways to earn money? A good career, family business, inheritance even the lottery. You have no idea about any members financial situation. There's nothing worse than sarcastic sincerity...
A comment that screams "I'm a butt-hurt sooky-lah-lah" which adds nothing and is just a cry for milk from mommy.

There's nothing worse than children having a cry.

This thread is great if for nothing more than seeing people come out of the woodwork for their 2c (me included). Like an old shoe that still fits just right.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #154
  • Jun 16, 2015 5:06am Jun 16, 2015 5:06am
Quoting MarketFox
{quote} There are several cases like yours. Psychological factor is the key; you are risking your own money. Price is just as random as the mass of people behind it. This isn't a game of numbers, it's a game of people. Take a deep breath, stay away from your terminal for a couple of weeks, and then try again. I've been where you are right now. Feel free of contact me if you need some kind of help, there's nothing wrong in asking for it. Kind regards, MF.
LOL !
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #155
  • Jun 16, 2015 5:15am Jun 16, 2015 5:15am
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Wrong this is lie number 3 the brokers and marketers want you to believe its a game of business and time frames. Emotions only effect the retail trader and have nothing to do with how the market moves at all. Mercedes Benz or Goldman Sachs has no emotions at all they have a objective to protect their business profits or to make new profits. Then they simple place the orders and the computers or traders mange the risk. As for your recommendation to step away from trading I don't know why I would do that since I'm making more money...

It is getting more ridiculous by the moment.
By assuming that you are making more money than everybody combined in this forum have now placed your credibility at an all time low.

Do you realize what you have just said?
Do you think it is a good time for me now to copy and paste our private messages in here?

Your followers will start declining rapidly from here on ........ just as I predicted.....


G
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #156
  • Jun 16, 2015 6:07am Jun 16, 2015 6:07am
Quoting srt
{quote} Custom: 95,80,65
Thanks bro
  • #157
  • Jun 16, 2015 6:24am Jun 16, 2015 6:24am
This is an old documentary, technology obviously is better now, but the psychology of speculative trading trying to outdo
other players is still true. It starts slow but from 9m in, the meat is there.

Inserted Video
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #158
  • Jun 16, 2015 7:17am Jun 16, 2015 7:17am
Quoting Cobra
{quote} It is getting more ridiculous by the moment. By assuming that you are making more money than everybody combined in this forum have now placed your credibility at an all time low. Do you realize what you have just said? Do you think it is a good time for me now to copy and paste our private messages in here? Your followers will start declining rapidly from here on ........ just as I predicted..... G

This Dude is such a pathetic excuse of life it is hilarious !

He has written me 5 emails all hating on me for sharing FREE knowledge with you guys about my many years as a institutional trader.

Meanwhile he trades a 2k account HAHAHAHAHA !

Its people like this that feed your ignorance in trading folks and they keep you in the Dream. This forum is filled with failed traders and they spew their hate and failure onto you and because you don't know any better they keep you focused on the illusions that constrict your growth and incomes.

They NEED to be right so they can accept the abject FAILURES at trading.


Here is the truth folks I know much much much more then you know !!

Not because I'm a GURU but just because I have worked for many institutions and have EXPERIENCES you do not.

That doesn't make me a GURU it makes me an employee of Institutions.

This dude wants to be a GURU to you he is desperate for your acceptance as some kind of knowledgeable leader and that is why he hates on anything or anyone that challenges his status in this forum.

Run from people like him they cripple your growth.
  • #159
  • Jun 16, 2015 7:29am Jun 16, 2015 7:29am
Tuesday Trades

There are NO EDGES today RANDOM MARKETS stay out !!!
  • #160
  • Jun 16, 2015 7:54am Jun 16, 2015 7:54am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Draw some horizontal lines wherever you want, then wait for the chart conform to your gibberish future predictions of support and resistance that you literally pulled out of nowhere. Drop some fib lines, gann wheels, einstein toilets, and whatever else you want. You'll see it conform if you allow it time to do so. No need to do the same with angled trend-lines... you are already doing it. This is precisely the same thing you can do to prove to yourself that your broker gives exactly zero fucks about any orders you place. Drop a line, or...
Totally agree with this!

I also agree with Gobigfx (or at least willing to hear him out). Also, I've been thinking about starting a thread about the myth of Fibonacci, but I know I will get even a bigger shit-storm than what's going on here, so I don't care enough to take it.
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