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Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness

  • #101
  • Jun 15, 2015 5:34am Jun 15, 2015 5:34am
Quoting Gareth22
{quote} I'm not drawing lines and showing them match up in the past. I drew them up when the right hand side of my chart was empty then traded off them accordingly and both trades made 3rr? How have I drawn those lines to fit my argument? I wasn't stop hunted, the trades won? Your paragraph made no sense?
I was under the assumption that I was being fairly clear about what I was saying. I guess I was wrong.

You wanted to know why your lines are respected. I suggested you drop random lines and wait for them to still be respected. If you see arbitrary lines get respected then what makes you think your "non-arbitrary" lines were respected?

If you sneezed onto your screen and the charts respected your snot what does this suggest to you about the magic of snot in relation to charts?

You see your trendlines respected because you ignore all of the candles that are "just noise" before your trendline is respected. And when your trendline gets violated it's not a suggestion that it never had any important in the first place. No. Instead, it conveniently suggests some type of break-out.

You can rationalize anything any which way you like. If you want to see a trendline you'll see a trendline, and when you make a winning trade you'll believe in them even more. It doesn't mean they ever mattered, just that you think they do and see what you want to see.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #102
  • Jun 15, 2015 5:37am Jun 15, 2015 5:37am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} I was under the assumption that I was being fairly clear about what I was saying. I guess I was wrong. You wanted to know why your lines are respected. I suggested you drop random lines and wait for them to still be respected. If you see arbitrary lines get respected then what makes you think your "non-arbitrary" lines were respected? If you sneezed onto your screen and the charts respected your snot what does this suggest to you about the magic of snot in relation to charts? You see your trendlines respected because you ignore all of the...
Ok I understand your explanation now. Basically I could put a line anywhere and eventually it will be respected.

Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, I thank you for explaining yours.

Good luck with your trading,
  • #103
  • Jun 15, 2015 5:40am Jun 15, 2015 5:40am
Quoting Gareth22
{quote} I'm not drawing lines and showing them match up in the past. I drew them up when the right hand side of my chart was empty then traded off them accordingly and both trades made 3rr? How have I drawn those lines to fit my argument? I wasn't stop hunted, the trades won? Your paragraph made no sense?
You miss nubcake's point entirely. Do as he asks please and maybe the lightbulb will switch on. If you can turn off the price series, move the chart around a bunch and draw some random horizontal lines, then turn on the price series. You will see the same thing we see with any S/R lines - flips, false breaks, repeated tests etc. If that can happen with completely nonsense lines - consistently, well then....think about it.

His paragraph makes perfect sense, but you are locked into defending your belief rather than thinking another reality is possible.

With kind regards,
MK
  • #104
  • Jun 15, 2015 5:43am Jun 15, 2015 5:43am
I have close to 70% winners...consistently....since years.....after more than 15 years of hard studying and practice.
Maybe my indies and calculations can read your orders behind the "Mercedes Benz story."...so when you through in 100 million, I go along with your "trend" and make money on your investment...
I´m not rich, but I do drive a Mercedes...keep up the good work...excellent cars...
  • #105
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:00am Jun 15, 2015 6:00am
He doesn't have clue how to read mkt. One of this Guy's who blow acc. and all anger spit here. You have to know when to stay away, when you have to back again in charts. There is PA,there is trends, S/R lines,Patterns and etc. Every day we have edge in mkt. Every day same PA which works 70-80% of times. There is no random numbers or randoms things in mkt. Is only your's capabilities and skills to understand mkt action is low, or bloody Greed taking out of this beautiful mkt.

And you think this is Random?

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  • #106
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:08am Jun 15, 2015 6:08am
Quoting Julexo
He doesn't have clue how to read mkt. One of this Guy's who blow acc. and all anger spit here. You have to know when to stay away, when you have to back again in charts. There is PA,there is trends, S/R lines,Patterns and etc. Every day we have edge in mkt. Every day same PA which works 70-80% of times. There is no random numbers or randoms things in mkt. Is only your's capabilities and skills to understand mkt action is low, or bloody Greed taking out of this beautiful mkt. And you think this is Random? {image}
  • #107
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:19am Jun 15, 2015 6:19am
Here are some charts of randomly generated price. The Excel file that generates these is also attached as I found it one of the most facinating things I have seen in my readings of trading to date. The fact is even with a coin flip chart you will get runs and seeming trends. That's just the nature of randomness. If you do not yet understand this please do some more homework. I would recommend reading Adam H Grimes work at www.adamhgrimes.com for anyone who is interested in this debate (you do have to sign up but it is all free and seems to cover everything in his book). His book The Art and Science of Technical Analysis is excellent. His video tutorials deals with the Randomness problems nicely and I commend this to you. http://adamhgrimes.com/TAAS/module-2...of-randomness/. Price action appears random because the myriad of events, opinions and actions that go to make up price action will often just be a confused and directionless mass of noise. Occassionally however something will align them with a bias in a particular direction. The definition of random is "made, done, or happening without method od conscious decision". Whether price action can be truly defined as random is a moot point. What is clear is that as traders we must know when, and how to step aside from the killer random price or noise that we see.

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And an excel file you can sit and try to persuade yourself this is not so...

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I had wanted to share this for a while so glad I found a home for it. This thread shows promise.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #108
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:25am Jun 15, 2015 6:25am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} You definitely know what you are talking about! Good posts, Although even if market was random, can create a model based on that random data?
Well the idea is to watch what happens during the Non Random times because that is where the meat is. It will tell you what will happen when the market becomes random and non random again. I know this does mot make sense in terms of how can the random actually be non random but it does because it will be non random within the volume weighted average price for the most part.

As this thread progresses I will figure out what I will do and share with everyone so please just stand by.
  • #109
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:37am Jun 15, 2015 6:37am
Quoting superblack
Gobigfx, I think you are one of the guys here who are experienced enough to understand the market. Many traders failed to notice or understand that the market is mostly random by nature. I am not sure how many percentage of randomness the market is, but very likely to be around 90% or so. Of course there are some directional biases mainly due to speculations, however, in overall, the market is random. If you flip a coin a thousand times, plot a graph, you will notice that it represents the financial markets chart. Then what about trends? In randomness...
You are correct and your examples are spot on and if you look at a big enough sample size you would be shocked how many strings of 0000 or 11111 can actually happen. I read somewhere that in an "infinite number" the strings of 0000 or 1111 could literally go on for thousands at periods.

True edges are very difficult to find this is also true.

My point of this thread is to challenge people to get them to STOP believing in the Forex Dream sold to them from the Brokers, Education Companies and Guru's.

Once you find the points where the market becomes Non Random Trading becomes actually very clear because its what follows in the Random parts afterwards that will no longer be Random ( TO A CERTAIN DEGREE) there will be structure to it because Institutions will all be doing the same things with all their Random orders.
  • #110
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:41am Jun 15, 2015 6:41am
Mr Gobigfx

In your first post you are telling everybody basically that this market is untradeable .....

In post number 108 you say you will figure out what to do.......

I thought you had it all figured out already due to your background as a trader as mentioned in post number one.

Here is my opinion about you:

 

  1. You are an unsuccessful trader. Spitting out bitterness because you are not profitable.
  2. Your previous experience are merely an experience and you did NOT learn anything from it
  3. You have started this thread thinking that people will go out of their way in proving your statement wrong by sharing their successful strategies here.
  4. You are a rookie and still have a long way to go. ( Studying different timeframes at the same time on the same currency for months will change your thinking) You have to put in the work in order to reap the benefits. Monitoring and looking after positions like you have mentioned in your first post DOES not necessarily brings "chart" experience. You need way more chart /price experience.

G

Never Ever Give Up!
  • #111
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:46am Jun 15, 2015 6:46am
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Well the idea is to watch what happens during the Non Random times because that is where the meat is. It will tell you what will happen when the market becomes random and non random again. I know this does mot make sense in terms of how can the random actually be non random but it does because it will be non random within the volume weighted average price for the most part. As this thread progresses I will figure out what I will do and share with everyone so please just stand by.
Markets of any type are dynamic and therefore subject to constant change. If this means random then I agree with you.
  • #112
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:48am Jun 15, 2015 6:48am
Quoting zxdtrader
I appreciate the OP shared some of his personal experience as a bank trader. no offence, but I think random/predictable has been debated many times. and 90% random or 20% random doesn't make much difference because it still means, market is sometimes random. whenever there is a % tag in front, it means not guaranteed and it's a probability. everything in trading is probability, so why bother with the 90% or any %? discussing this topic has no real benefit in my own opinion. as the OP said, all the bank is trying to do is to fill the order as near...



It's nice to see intelligent people in this thread

Once we understand the true randomness of price then we can "start" to construct models and assumptions to exploit the randomness because as you clearly read from my posts the randomness has "some" structure to it ... congratulations sir you are on your way to millions.

The problem with most traders is they are spending too much time looking at the randomness of the market when in fact the meat of the trading is to watch the Non Random times because that is where we shall find clarity.

I apologize for remaining vague but I need to get people to understand "The Big Picture" and accept it as reality before I can ever help them.


There is nothing to fear in what I am telling people only liberation and freedom from obscurity.
  • #113
  • Jun 15, 2015 6:49am Jun 15, 2015 6:49am
Quoting Gobigfx
So I've been wanting to write this post for a few years but I knew it would meet with a lot of anger and objection but here goes anyways. You all are living an imaginary dream. A career as a retail trader long term (7 plus years) is almost impossible, the ratio is not 5% its more like 1%. I have been trading for a very long time and the only reason that I have survived multiple market conditions is because I was mentored for 1 year as a floor trader and then for another few years as a desk trader for a few institutions. After I left the "professional"...
Question is can one still profit from such randomness??
  • #114
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:08am Jun 15, 2015 7:08am
When the institutions enter the market the market is less random, they will manipulate the market to get the best fills for themselves.
Higher volumes is the clue to non random markets.
As retail traders we try not to fall into their traps but observe where they entered and trade in their footsteps.

By institutions, I mean the Bank liquidity providers, who make their money by getting the fills at better than the clients requests.
Well known that they rig markets & fines will not dissuade them from doing so again.

Off topic here, Weather forecasts are nowadays showing accuracy of anything between 70 - 80% that is even 3 day forecasts, would you not agree
predicting weather is a random event, probably more random than Forex ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #115
  • Edited 7:48am Jun 15, 2015 7:11am | Edited 7:48am
everything is random until something 'different' happens
  • #116
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:14am Jun 15, 2015 7:14am
Quoting Chorlton
{quote} Question is can one still profit from such randomness??
YES very much so !!!!
  • #117
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:21am Jun 15, 2015 7:21am
Quoting Shabs19
When the institutions enter the market the market is less random, they will manipulate the market to get the best fills for themselves. Higher volumes is the clue to non random markets. As retail traders we try not to fall into their traps but observe where they entered and trade in their footsteps. By institutions, I mean the Bank liquidity providers, who make their money by getting the fills at better than the clients requests. Well known that they rig markets & fines will not dissuade them from doing so again. Off topic here, Weather forecasts...
Interesting and important point !

To predict the weather patterns you would need to go down to the lowest possible denominator. Trading is the same its sort of silly to say "hey I'm sitting in the middle of a tornado and now I can finally see it" lol

Thats what most traders are doing but unlike the weather the markets can stop the tornado instantaneously should new information become immediately available.

This is the Randomness we will never know and the advantage that I had at the institutions I worked for.

I had access to faster and more accurate information then most of you guys will ever have your all studying the tornado and we are searching for the butterfly that is going to flap its wings and cause the tornado.
  • #118
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:25am Jun 15, 2015 7:25am
Monday Morning Update

There was a very good opportunity to go Long the AUDUSD at 2:30 am EST pretty much impossible for US traders and even London traders to get into.

I don't have any good level for a Long yet on the GBPUSD I would like prices about 40 to 50 pips lower before buying it.
  • #119
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:32am Jun 15, 2015 7:32am
Quoting Cobra
Mr Gobigfx In your first post you are telling everybody basically that this market is untradeable ..... In post number 108 you say you will figure out what to do....... I thought you had it all figured out already due to your background as a trader as mentioned in post number one. Here is my opinion about you: You are an unsuccessful trader. Spitting out bitterness because you are not profitable. Your previous experience are merely an experience and you did NOT learn anything from it You have started this thread thinking that people will go out...
LOL

All opinions are welcome I am not here to argue with people only share some ideas.

It's a free country. Haters gonna hate.
  • #120
  • Jun 15, 2015 7:35am Jun 15, 2015 7:35am
It's not just institutions that can create randomness in a market to profit from, a single trader in the UK who has been blamed by the US authorities
could do that also by creating & deleting "ghost" orders in the markets in milliseconds using HFT technology and triggering a major collapse.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...ppear-in-court

If you have inside privileged knowledge about any market then sure you will manipulate to gain the extra bucks in commissions.
Retail traders should not predict but react to events, again with a predefined plan & objective. We should be selective about the trading conditions
that best suit our individual trading style.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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