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Forex Dream Chasers - The 90% rule of randomness

  • #21
  • Jun 14, 2015 3:21pm Jun 14, 2015 3:21pm
Quoting Gobigfx
...Before I do that though I want to gauge the amount of intelligence in this forum as this is one of my first and probably my last thread I will ever start for the retail trading world.
Wow.... Simple, modest and compassionate
  • #22
  • Jun 14, 2015 3:21pm Jun 14, 2015 3:21pm
Quoting srt
If price movement is 90% random, flip a coin 10,000 times(heads=buy, tails=sell) with a computer generator & plot the results on a chart. Will it look anything like the one below? {image}
Yes it will look exactly like that on the micro scale but because 10% of the time prices will move in a directional bias based on fundamental underlying factors the perception will be viewed as logical and non random.

Focus on the non random and you find profits.
  • #23
  • Jun 14, 2015 3:24pm Jun 14, 2015 3:24pm
Just wasted 15 minutes on this thread. Total nonsense from OP.
None the wiser!
  • #24
  • Jun 14, 2015 3:27pm Jun 14, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Yes it will look exactly like that on the micro scale but because 10% of the time prices will move in a directional bias based on fundamental underlying factors the perception will be viewed as logical and non random. Focus on the non random and you find profits.
Or, to save useful time away from this thread, just trade in the direction of the weekly/monthly charts by choosing the right entry points on the 15mn/1h/4h charts
  • #25
  • Jun 14, 2015 3:31pm Jun 14, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} This goes against the very idea of a TREND!If price is random how did we get EU from 139 to 105 Random?True if you trading 1-5min charts but not true H4 daily weekly.I disagree with your entire outlook. Many examples of strong trends like AN AU NU GN GA EN EA etc list goes on. {image}
When a roulette wheel has 10 blacks or 15 reds in a row is that a trend ?

The point is that Random can result in a perceived trend but in actuality a roulette wheel is completely random where the market do move to a fundamental driver 10% of the time.
  • #26
  • Jun 14, 2015 3:36pm Jun 14, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Or, to save useful time away from this thread, just trade in the direction of the weekly/monthly charts by choosing the right entry points on the 15mn/1h/4h charts
Your getting closer to reality but not quite.
  • #27
  • Jun 14, 2015 3:40pm Jun 14, 2015 3:40pm
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} Your getting closer to reality but not quite.
Luckily for me, I don't need you to trade. Given how empty your posts are, we'd still be discussing how to define randomness in 2017
  • #28
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:23pm Jun 14, 2015 4:23pm
Quoting Gobigfx
So I've been wanting to write this post for a few years but I knew it would meet with a lot of anger and objection but here goes anyways.
Stopped reading after this.
  • #29
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:26pm Jun 14, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Luckily for me, I don't need you to trade. Given how empty your posts are, we'd still be discussing how to define randomness in 2017

We both know you don't have a 7 year track record that can prove me wrong so yes you do need me but thats ok I might just help you
  • #30
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:32pm Jun 14, 2015 4:32pm
Monday Trading

There was strong evidence on Friday that out of balance non random activity will be flowing into Monday on the GBPUSD and the AUSUSD to the Long Side on both of these pairs.

What does this mean ?

Well it means that unless some Fundamental Data comes out tomorrow that you can look for levels to hold and new buying to come into these pairs. Obviously you don't want to just BUY blindly and you need to see some evidence that on Monday the unbalanced buyers will return but the likelyhood is better then Random.

If I see any trades during the day I will shot them out.
  • #31
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:55pm Jun 14, 2015 4:55pm
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} When a roulette wheel has 10 blacks or 15 reds in a row is that a trend ? The point is that Random can result in a perceived trend but in actuality a roulette wheel is completely random where the market do move to a fundamental driver 10% of the time.
Look you are obviously oblivious what typical chart looks like!!
There is NOTHING random about trends!
Trend by default has directional bias and if anyone not seeing this obvious fact should STOP trading period!

Clear?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32
  • Jun 14, 2015 5:00pm Jun 14, 2015 5:00pm
Quoting Gobigfx
So I've been wanting to write this post for a few years but I knew it would meet with a lot of anger and objection but here goes anyways. You all are living an imaginary dream. A career as a retail trader long term (7 plus years) is almost impossible, the ratio is not 5% its more like 1%. I have been trading for a very long time and the only reason that I have survived multiple market conditions is because I was mentored for 1 year as a floor trader and then for another few years as a desk trader for a few institutions. After I left the "professional"...
For me nothing in this world is random .
second though we made profit before and are making how do you think by trying to predict .
i will keep watching your thread
thank you sir
all have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #33
  • Jun 14, 2015 5:16pm Jun 14, 2015 5:16pm
may the market carry on being random then sir

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #34
  • Jun 14, 2015 5:23pm Jun 14, 2015 5:23pm
This thread caught my eye. I'm always looking for traders with a realistic view on how the market works. I do agree that the market is mostly random. There is no 1 right way to trade the forex. I do feel the biggest reason most traders lose is not because they are trying to predict the market (although that is another reason) but because they don't know anything about money management even though they may think they do. It would appear that almost all traders over risk their accounts. A few ways of doing this is using to high of volume and also just holding on to trades way to long weather it be a profitable trade or a loser. You most have some rule-set/system in place when trading!

I created an EA that backtests successfully all the way back from 1994-2015 current date bringing in a consistent 3-5% per month. Yes, this is just a backtest but I've now been using the strategy in some way or another live since the beginning of this year. My backtests showed 3-5% profit and this is what I'm getting on average live each month. Since I started live back 6 months ago I've run multiple backtests over this same period to see if my live results were the same as the backtests and they were. I had on average about a $0-$3 difference on some trades because of commission but for the most part they were exactly the same.

This technically means that if I started using the strategy 6.5 years ago I would have proved you wrong. By the way...just because someone has been trading successfully for 7 years doesn't mean that they can't blow their account tomorrow. I think this whole 7 years proof idea is total bogus when it comes to the trading world. Even a 10 year track record could be crushed in an instant.

This is what I have to always worry about. My EA has a 21 year track record and has never blown up but that doesn't mean it can't at some point.

Currently I have over 10 years trading experience and manage and trade over $110k in funds.
  • #35
  • Jun 14, 2015 5:41pm Jun 14, 2015 5:41pm
"This goes against the very idea of a TREND!"

There are no trends, price movement is in fact random (and there are plenty of academic studies that back that statement). Just showing a specially chosen chart that looks trendy proves nothing. If I tossed a coin 1000s of times, I'll get "runs" of heads and tails just like the random market has runs of up-days and down-days.

SRT - hate to tell you, but the answer to your question is YES. A randomly generated chart will look exactly like the one you posted. Go to random.org and you can generate random charts that are indistinguishable from real charts.
  • #36
  • Jun 14, 2015 5:47pm Jun 14, 2015 5:47pm
Read this please:
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf wp650.pdf   165 KB | 1,449 downloads
atheer1
  • #37
  • Jun 14, 2015 6:01pm Jun 14, 2015 6:01pm
Quoting gravitist
"This goes against the very idea of a TREND!" There are no trends, price movement is in fact random .
Are you delusional or plain ignorant.
Take AU NU EU GU and look! What do you see? LOWER LOWS.Is that random?LOL case closed.
People who can't trade blame their losses on "randomness" of markets.In fact markets are fractals and this is a huge topic.

Lets really discuss this logically
If markets are totally unpredictable and random then nobody can or could profit on regular bases to call themselves professional trader.By saying professional it already assumes thousands of traders make trading their occupation.Think about this.How can even a professional trader exit in total random market.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #38
  • Jun 14, 2015 6:04pm Jun 14, 2015 6:04pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Are you delusional or plain ignorant. Take AU NU EU GU and look! What do you see? LOWER LOWS.Is that random?LOL case closed. People who can't trade blame their losses on "randomness" of markets.In fact markets are fractals and this is a huge topic.
So why are you here ?

Why are you spending your time in a trading forum if your such a success and you can see this so called un random behavior so well ?

I've been a member of this forum for 3 years and have come in maybe 5 times in the last 3 years because I have been busy making $$$ why would I come in here ?

Open your mind because if you do this thread will be the best one you've ever read.
  • #39
  • Jun 14, 2015 6:11pm Jun 14, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting Gobigfx
{quote} So why are you here ? Why are you spending your time in a trading forum if your such a success and you can see this so called un random behavior so well ? I've been a member of this forum for 3 years and have come in maybe 5 times in the last 3 years because I have been busy making $$$ why would I come in here ? Open your mind because if you do this thread will be the best one you've ever read.
Forget personal issues.You explain how trends form in random market!! Yes give me your best shot!By saying rolling of a die makes a trend is incorrect because trends have directional bias!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #40
  • Jun 14, 2015 6:11pm Jun 14, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting Gobigfx
Well I knew this thread would bring out the Dreamers and "Experts" by the boat loads and its funny to watch people talk for me to defend their own beliefs. Whenever you challenge peoples understanding or perceptions of reality it usually results in mass hysteria. The point of this thread is that I will demonstrate for you the true randomness of price that's easy enough to do but if you stop looking at the random and start to focus on the times that matter the most you will start to see the reality of market movements. Before I do that though...

Dear Troll/GoBigFX,

I called you out on your contradicting statements both present and past in post #8 and post #12... yet you still choose to continue with your nonsense,

You talk about Dreamers and Forex "Experts" but what credibility do You have to make these big claims, other than the 15 posts you've made on since you've been here? Not even a single demo account Trades Explorer???
What baffles me is why you created a new topic to demonstrate the same thing many before you have already demonstrated: it's very easy being a profitable trader on the internet and not displaying evidence. But what bites the bullet with you is that you are contradicting and illogical with your statements!

Im still waiting for you reply to post #12 LOL, you say speculation is hopeless yet you yourself are a speculative trader as proved in post #12 haha

PS. a TE would be nice considering that you've been successful for so long, but we already know that won't be happening haha!
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
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