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  • #1,781
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:06pm Jun 12, 2015 12:06pm
Hi Guys
Just an observation
NU gained on USD from 6943 now 6990 but GN shows no weakness and keeps climbing.
When you see a cross do this its obvious at present moment Sterling is stronger then USD
If you are thinking shorting GN its worth looking for weakness on GU

I am looking to short GU but holding until next week
Its having difficulty breaking R100 notice RSI as well
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,782
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:21pm Jun 12, 2015 12:21pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Guys Just an observation NU gained on USD from 6943 now 6990 but GN shows no weakness and keeps climbing. When you see a cross do this its obvious at present moment Sterling is stronger then USD If you are thinking shorting GN its worth looking for weakness on GU I am looking to short GU but holding until next week Its having difficulty breaking R100 notice RSI as well {image}
Hey Davit,
,,there doesn't look like there's anything to trade at the moment. I'm still hanging on to my EA short
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #1,783
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:34pm Jun 12, 2015 12:34pm
Quoting itsallover
{quote} Hey Davit, ,,there doesn't look like there's anything to trade at the moment. I'm still hanging on to my EA short
TRue!
Mark June 17 important date Feds statement on rates

Usually market will get USD bullish up to that point and sell USD after the event since almost 100% sure rate hike will not happen until Sept or later date.
This means most likely USD bulls will take control until Weds
Something to keep in mind.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,784
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:38pm Jun 12, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} TRue! Mark June 17 important date Feds statement on rates Usually market will get USD bullish up to that point and sell USD after the event since almost 100% sure rate hike will not happen until Sept or later date. This means most likely USD bulls will take control until Weds Something to keep in mind.
Thanx for all the nuggets Davit,,, much appreciated
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #1,785
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:39pm Jun 12, 2015 12:39pm
The paint is Drying :nerd:......Merkel you hound , get that Italian sausage out of your mouth and speak.
  • #1,786
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:41pm Jun 12, 2015 12:41pm
So much like mr bean!!!
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  • #1,787
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:41pm Jun 12, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Ok Friday, so but.... {image}

hee hee ,,, can we join your party? ,,, it ages since I went to one
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #1,788
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:43pm Jun 12, 2015 12:43pm
Quoting itsallover
{quote} Thanx for all the nuggets Davit,,, much appreciated
Smart thing to do is wait let prices get inflated like UC 2380-24+ and hummer shorts in increments

Just an idea
Say you usually place 2.00 lot
take 2.00 divide in 4 .50 lots
Now you got 4 chances to spread your orders and average overall at better price.
Never enter all at once.Its like battle always keep reserve troops on hand.
In fact trading is war.You are fighting another guy opposite side!

Another way to look at things.Please read this article
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,789
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:58pm Jun 12, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Smart thing to do is wait let prices get inflated like UC 2380-24+ and hummer shorts in increments Just an idea Say you usually place 2.00 lot take 2.00 divide in 4 .50 lots Now you got 4 chances to spread your orders and average overall at better price. Never enter all at once.Its like battle always keep reserve troops on hand. In fact trading is war.You are fighting another guy opposite side! Another way to look at things.Please...

,,what are the signs that show price is inflated?
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #1,790
  • Jun 12, 2015 1:06pm Jun 12, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting itsallover
{quote} ,,what are the signs that show price is inflated?
This is the hardest part in trading.Chris,Scott,Myself and others look for Fib extensions but myself I also follow fundamentals such as Feds sentiment,unemployment,oil prices etc.
To me USd will get weaker until Sept.This may be wrong on my part but 1stQ was very weak and 2ndQ is marginally better but not great.
Some numbers unemployment is at 5.4% 8.8% underemployed part timers so there is serious weakness on economy.
Anyway I also pay attention to pivots part of Fibs and Price action.
Things to study
http://www.harmonictrader.com/
top left is free ebook in green.He is expert harmonic teacher.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,791
  • Jun 12, 2015 1:09pm Jun 12, 2015 1:09pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} This is the hardest part in trading.Chris,Scott,Myself and others look for Fib extensions but myself I also follow fundamentals such as Feds sentiment,unemployment,oil prices etc. To me USd will get weaker until Sept.This may be wrong on my part but 1stQ was very weak and 2ndQ is marginally better but not great. Some numbers unemployment is at 5.4% 8.8% underemployed part timers so there is serious weakness on economy. Anyway I also pay attention to pivots part of Fibs and Price action. Things to study http://www.harmonictrader.com/...

Thanx Davit
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #1,792
  • Jun 12, 2015 1:53pm Jun 12, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting itsallover
{quote} Thanx Davit
You welcome!
Most important is risk management.This is easier said then done.Part of it is psychological inability to take a loss.Feel crap taking 20 dollar loss end up coughing 200 loss in forced situation.
Almost Everyone is focused on entries but risk management is equality if not more important.This part takes years to sink in.One day you will have that Ahh ha moment.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,793
  • Jun 12, 2015 2:48pm Jun 12, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting FxLapozi
{quote} I am actually thinking of going short. (short term) Near DOL, price rejection zone and fibo 38.2

,,,sorry I missed your post FxLapozi,,,, did you eventually take the short? I'm still short EA but want to shut it down now and start my weekend
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #1,794
  • Jun 12, 2015 3:08pm Jun 12, 2015 3:08pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} You welcome! Most important is risk management.This is easier said then done.Part of it is psychological inability to take a loss.Feel crap taking 20 dollar loss end up coughing 200 loss in forced situation. Almost Everyone is focused on entries but risk management is equality if not more important.This part takes years to sink in.One day you will have that Ahh ha moment.

,,,absolutely ,,,, risk management is key. Its an area easily overlooked because we're mostly thinking of getting as many pips as possible. As soon as I'm happy with my trading I'll work on my risk management.
.... laughing all the way to the bank
  • #1,795
  • Jun 12, 2015 9:27pm Jun 12, 2015 9:27pm
So, usually, I work on charts and post on Saturdays. Not sure if it will work out that way this week, or for that matter, over the summer.

We shall see. So, instead I will leave you guys with an interesting article. FOMC this week, so should be fun.

As per my GU chart today, not big on fundis. Now, don't get me wrong, trained in them, I get them, but they rarely are terribly useful when trading. Everybody understand why?....Further, I generally want to poke my eyes out when people on ff talk about fundis. Best case, they are usually half right and it's just confusing. That being said, if you want to lay out a fundi view, be my guest. Don't mind some discussion and people here seem to be reasonably intelligent.

However, we are at big point now where dollar rests on tightening and pace of tightening. In that respect, I found this somewhat interesting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...mber-rate-hike

"It could mean that one percentage point of tightening per year is too steep in a world where" the rate of full employment is 4.25 percent, Gapen said.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #1,796
  • Jun 12, 2015 10:40pm Jun 12, 2015 10:40pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
So, usually, I work on charts and post on Saturdays. Not sure if it will work out that way this week, or for that matter, over the summer. We shall see. So, instead I will leave you guys with an interesting article. FOMC this week, so should be fun. As per my GU chart today, not big on fundis. Now, don't get me wrong, trained in them, I get them, but they rarely are terribly useful when trading. Everybody understand why?....Further, I generally want to poke my eyes out when people on ff talk about fundis. Best case, they are usually half right and...
HI Scott
There are fundies that imminently effect price such as dairy sell prices on NZD.Its not abstract confusing just straight forward.Same can be said about oil vs Canadian dollar VS USD on oil.
Yes lots of minor fundies are irrelevant but last Friday's incredible drive up on UJ and majors were driven by good data.I will continue monitor the calendar events
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,797
  • Jun 12, 2015 11:44pm Jun 12, 2015 11:44pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} HI Scott There are fundies that imminently effect price such as dairy sell prices on NZD.Its not abstract confusing just straight forward.Same can be said about oil vs Canadian dollar VS USD on oil. Yes lots of minor fundies are irrelevant but last Friday's incredible drive up on UJ and majors were driven by good data.I will continue monitor the calendar events Regards
No problem my friend, feel free to share and provide input. I am speaking generally.

I do like a good discussion but that discussion must include where fundis fall short. IMO, data drives price or provides volatility, but where it should go.

Fundis to me, are important changes.

To be continued...

Like I said, where do fundis fall short? I like discussion...

Edit: It is unlikely I will be around much this weekend, but it is all good...

Regards,
Scott
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #1,798
  • Edited Jun 13, 2015 12:00am Jun 12, 2015 11:47pm | Edited Jun 13, 2015 12:00am
On my trading closed EG longs with minor pips.Expecting Euro dive before 17th Feds meeting
Opportunity to long EG this time at much better level under 72-71.
Looking to add more UC shorts invested 25% of my intended shorts but held back reserve troops in case goes 24-25
Should be exciting week.When there is blood there is opertunity!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,799
  • Jun 12, 2015 11:56pm Jun 12, 2015 11:56pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} No problem my friend, feel free to share and provide input. I am speaking generally. I do like a good discussion but that discussion must include where fundis fall short. IMO, data drives price or provides volatility, but where it should go. Fundis to me, are important changes. To be continued... Like I said, where do fundis fall short? I like discussion... Edit: It is unlikely I will be around much this weekend, but it is all good... Regards, Scott
Enjoy your weekend Scott
Should be exciting next week.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,800
  • Edited 6:44am Jun 13, 2015 6:28am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting Mr. Scott
So, usually, I work on charts and post on Saturdays. Not sure if it will work out that way this week, or for that matter, over the summer. We shall see. So, instead I will leave you guys with an interesting article. FOMC this week, so should be fun. As per my GU chart today, not big on fundis. Now, don't get me wrong, trained in them, I get them, but they rarely are terribly useful when trading. Everybody understand why?....Further, I generally want to poke my eyes out when people on ff talk about fundis. Best case, they are usually half right and...
Hi Scott, I agree with your views here on fundamentals for the most part having no usefulness in short term trading but can create some good volatility. I think they can almost confuse a trade and leave a stubborn mindset bias. However I always enjoy the discussions and others discussing their views and ideas breaking away from just levels and charts but mostly I find it too manipulated to trade with any certainty short term.

Regarding interest rates - I think ultimately the Bond market may force the Feds hand to raise short term regardless of the micro data if the recent technical momentum continues. Lots of examples in the past, 1970 - 71, 1976 -77, 1993 - 94, 2003 - 04.

Interesting article of late on this. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/for...unt-2015-06-09

Watching technical setup of the Ten year yield at the moment is interesting.
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