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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #57,341
  • Jun 11, 2015 2:42pm Jun 11, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting iwillwait
You you all in yet? {quote}
nope. perhaps this evening. still not convinced it will have enough speed to make it worth my while
  • #57,342
  • Jun 11, 2015 3:03pm Jun 11, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I dont have such a channel mapped on my charts. But if I saw that on mine, I don't think it would be convincing enough to factor into any trade decision for me. That channel needs more confirmation.

Agreed. At this point, it's simply a projection on where to expect support and where to aim for possible profit targets. I like using measured moves for target projections as well.
  • #57,343
  • Jun 11, 2015 4:35pm Jun 11, 2015 4:35pm
I have closed some good short position now because there is something not confirmed on the charts.

My method is based on the correlation between price and time.

Today I was expecting a weak dollar, but it was strong. Yen was ok. The problem was the Dollar (same happened on Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd).
Actually seems that today we lost an entire daily cycle, the big boys played just in the first part of London session, and then stop. The reason? I don't know...

At the moment Usd/Jpy needs some confirmation to understand if we will bearish or bullish in the next hours. Asian session maybe can tell us.

Be careful, the situation is not clear
  • #57,344
  • Jun 11, 2015 4:42pm Jun 11, 2015 4:42pm
The first confirmation was the top touched around 123,78. It is the best resistence for bears.
Of course, breaking 123,32 will be the confirmation for the down trend for the next hours, but we need liquidity for that.
  • #57,345
  • Jun 11, 2015 8:55pm Jun 11, 2015 8:55pm
Quoting Dano12
{quote}:nerd: {image}
Here is another one Dano. I've noticed the language changing. Kuroda and the BOJ do not want the rate beyond 125. Stuff tends to get damn expensive if it keeps going and the stimulus will have the opposite effect. People will stop spending. Longs look out below.


http://news.forexlive.com/!/japan-pr...mulus-20150611
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #57,346
  • Jun 12, 2015 12:34am Jun 12, 2015 12:34am
Good opportunity for long term (setup nulified if the price fall below SL or adjusted to market conditions for long entry only) :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.png Size: 26 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #57,347
  • Jun 12, 2015 1:23am Jun 12, 2015 1:23am
Quoting SuperMario21
The first confirmation was the top touched around 123,78. It is the best resistence for bears. Of course, breaking 123,32 will be the confirmation for the down trend for the next hours, but we need liquidity for that.
Waiting for confirmation after the test...

Like yesterday 7/8 pips up are possible. 123.85 it's another key level for the bear setup....
  • #57,348
  • Jun 12, 2015 2:15am Jun 12, 2015 2:15am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Here is another one Dano. I've noticed the language changing. Kuroda and the BOJ do not want the rate beyond 125. Stuff tends to get damn expensive if it keeps going and the stimulus will have the opposite effect. People will stop spending. Longs look out below. http://news.forexlive.com/!/japan-pr...mulus-20150611
do not want to let it stop printing, and can talk yourself
USD will be strong I can not help speaking , and as interest rates start to raise in the USA it ....
  • #57,349
  • Jun 12, 2015 2:39am Jun 12, 2015 2:39am
Small short opened.
Setup is ok, but still waiting for more confirmation.
US data later for acceleration....

Be careful
  • #57,350
  • Edited 4:52am Jun 12, 2015 4:14am | Edited 4:52am
Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control (Summary)
Second Half of Fiscal 2014 (October 2014-March 2015)
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/diet/d_.../hanki15a.htm/

This document is too important!
the inner page pdf documents are in JAPANESE.
(As I need more time to read)
All of you go ahead continuously posting your post first, I really take time to read.
******
go to the Japanese document main page :
国会に対する報告
=A report for the Parliament
http://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/diet/index.htm/
******
1st pdf file on the main page :
2015年6月（その1: 経済及び金融の情勢、金融政策運営及び金融政策手段）
=6/2015 (part 1: economic and financial affairs, monetary policy and financial policy measures)
http://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/diet/d_rep.../semi1506a.pdf

on page 30 :
（５）外国為替市場
=The Forex market

2nd pdf
2015年6月（その2: 金融政策決定会合における決定の内容）
=6/2015 (contents of part 2: monetary policy decisions)

3rd pdf
2015年6月（その3: 金融政策決定会合における決定の内容（続き）、参考計表・資料一覧）
=6/2015 (contents Part 3: the monetary policy meeting decisions (cont'd), reference and list of materials)

******
The documents are too long : It is better to talk about it next week after finished the reading first.
Let me end this post now and will talk early next week.
******
  • #57,351
  • Jun 12, 2015 5:07am Jun 12, 2015 5:07am
Quoting SuperMario21
Small short opened. Setup is ok, but still waiting for more confirmation. US data later for acceleration.... Be careful
Euro up 1.120, good signal.Still waiting for liquidity
  • #57,352
  • Jun 12, 2015 5:07am Jun 12, 2015 5:07am
for update only,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bWFP9DHE.png Size: 22 KB


for reference only,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JSCdRvgB.png Size: 27 KB
  • #57,353
  • Jun 12, 2015 5:15am Jun 12, 2015 5:15am
The 6/1/07 monthly swing high will be an important level to watch.
  • #57,354
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:35am Jun 12, 2015 7:35am
this is what confuses me about the fx market why would this par soar after good data and with the knowledge that the Feds meet tomorrow I don't get it
  • #57,355
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:41am Jun 12, 2015 7:41am
Quoting andoseg2
Good opportunity for long term (setup nulified if the price fall below SL or adjusted to market conditions for long entry only) : {image}
I'm sensing serious fear in this market. The consumer data was a blowout number 94 to 91 expected yet the yen is being bought over the US dollar. There is talk now of a preparation for a Greek default. Is it money being repatriated?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #57,356
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:46am Jun 12, 2015 7:46am
Welcome to the world of forex....where white can be black and good news can have reversed reaction.

As a retail trader, respect the trend and go with the wind. I have learnt painful lessons doing the opposite.
  • #57,357
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:50am Jun 12, 2015 7:50am
Quoting iwillwait
this is what confuses me about the fx market why would this par soar after good data and with the knowledge that the Feds meet tomorrow I don't get it
One of the best data prints and yet the dollar is sold. The IMF and now the world bank has asked the fed to back off raising rates until 2016. Maybe that is just what will happen.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #57,358
  • Jun 12, 2015 7:53am Jun 12, 2015 7:53am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} One of the best data prints and yet the dollar is sold. The IMF and now the world bank has asked the fed to back off raising rates until 2016. Maybe that is just what will happen.
QE4 in the pipeline?
  • #57,359
  • Jun 12, 2015 8:14am Jun 12, 2015 8:14am
Yen loans that bought US shares now being repaid?
  • #57,360
  • Jun 12, 2015 8:16am Jun 12, 2015 8:16am
Don't trade news or all the datas that you see...they are just a waste of time...
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