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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #57,241
  • Jun 7, 2015 3:02pm Jun 7, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting Dano12
http://www.efxnews.com/story/29236/t...eks-cot-report Takeaways On USD, EUR, AUD, & Other Majors From This Week's COT Report
Very interesting... and pretty much in tune with my interpretation of fxstreet's heat map. Thanx, Dano, on the spot as always!
"Tips are for waiters." - Reminiscences of a stock operator
  • #57,242
  • Jun 7, 2015 11:18pm Jun 7, 2015 11:18pm
added to my buy order @ 125.324 wondering how much longer I should hold my positions...
  • #57,243
  • Jun 8, 2015 1:24am Jun 8, 2015 1:24am
Quoting iwillwait
added to my buy order @ 125.324 wondering how much longer I should hold my positions...
Why don't you just put a stop under 125 or somewhere. Move the stop by ATR.
Make peace with yourself, before the stop is tripped, that this decision is your choice....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #57,244
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:05am Jun 8, 2015 3:05am
hmms... will 125 break?.. doesn't seem like it will...
  • #57,245
  • Jun 8, 2015 4:55am Jun 8, 2015 4:55am
I thought it will go up.But not. Sl hit.Damn.
  • #57,246
  • Jun 8, 2015 5:08am Jun 8, 2015 5:08am
strong support
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  • #57,247
  • Jun 8, 2015 11:13am Jun 8, 2015 11:13am
Could be a good moment to invest some long-term longs UJ at a tad above 125... This down movement is just a reflection of EU sentiment and an inevitable liquidity hunting retrace, not anything fundamental to either USD or JPY. EJ's been climbing steadily all day and if EU reverses for even a mite this pair might take off. But the hell I know...
"Tips are for waiters." - Reminiscences of a stock operator
  • #57,248
  • Jun 8, 2015 11:52am Jun 8, 2015 11:52am
Put on size shorts here at 125.10... stops at 125.35, 125.45 and 125.60.


I think technicals in FX are kind useless at this point, the last two months of movement have all been driven purely by non FX factors. Bund yields, oil prices, European stocks etc. The S&P 500 is pushing into VERY big levels and could be on the edge of a serious breakdown. A big sell off in US stocks just as markets gather around September as the time to hike rates would undoubtedly push USD lower in a hurry.

Im looking for a move to 121.50 driven by a big sell off in stocks that will be sparked by a combo of Greek worries, stock valuation concerns and (ironically) rate hike worries.
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  • #57,249
  • Jun 8, 2015 12:22pm Jun 8, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting Citiboy
Put on size shorts here at 125.10... stops at 125.35, 125.45 and 125.60. I think technicals in FX are kind useless at this point, the last two months of movement have all been driven purely by non FX factors. Bund yields, oil prices, European stocks etc. The S&P 500 is pushing into VERY big levels and could be on the edge of a serious breakdown. A big sell off in US stocks just as markets gather around September as the time to hike rates would undoubtedly push USD lower in a hurry. Im looking for a move to 121.50 driven by a big sell off in stocks...
Looks like the DOW and Nikkei are going to top out along with UJ.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #57,250
  • Jun 8, 2015 1:23pm Jun 8, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting Citiboy
Put on size shorts here at 125.10... {image}

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  • #57,251
  • Jun 8, 2015 1:54pm Jun 8, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting Citiboy
A big sell off in US stocks just as markets gather around September as the time to hike rates would undoubtedly push USD lower in a hurry.
The opposite. If stocks tank there will be a rush to safety - the dollar. Especially if rates start to go up.
  • #57,252
  • Jun 8, 2015 2:06pm Jun 8, 2015 2:06pm
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  • #57,253
  • Jun 8, 2015 2:36pm Jun 8, 2015 2:36pm
Hey help help me understand this are you saying support at 124?


Quoting Dano12
1691512 {image}
  • #57,254
  • Jun 8, 2015 2:42pm Jun 8, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting Citiboy
Put on size shorts here at 125.10... stops at 125.35, 125.45 and 125.60. I think technicals in FX are kind useless at this point, the last two months of movement have all been driven purely by non FX factors. Bund yields, oil prices, European stocks etc. The S&P 500 is pushing into VERY big levels and could be on the edge of a serious breakdown. A big sell off in US stocks just as markets gather around September as the time to hike rates would undoubtedly push USD lower in a hurry. Im looking for a move to 121.50 driven by a big sell off in stocks...
Hi Citiboy
I agree with Suntrader USD will go up.What to look for is how much .25rate will be priced in by Sept.In most cases market already prices in and once rate is increased I anticipate quick sell off.
So depends what level USD will be in Sept
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #57,255
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:26pm Jun 8, 2015 3:26pm
Quoting iwillwait
Hey help help me understand this are you saying support at 124? {quote}

Yupp, was thinking the same way. First hard floor is somewhere in that area. Looking forward to dropping a few longs there...

Btw, if you do go long at any point before it rebounds to 125+, go long-term style, meaning small amount to weather the drawdown. It could possibly go as low as 122-123 area if this DXY retrace takes a long time. However, I'd say the possibility of revisiting 125.8 and way beyond is pretty much 99% atm... Just keep in mind - small orders, big long-term moves. All my views on this pair are made from that perspective. I have no clear picture what it's going to do short term. Please guys don't long it with half your account and then curse me cause it hit your 20 pip SL.
"Tips are for waiters." - Reminiscences of a stock operator
  • #57,256
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:30pm Jun 8, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting iwillwait
Hey help help me understand this are you saying support at 124? {quote}
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  • #57,257
  • Jun 8, 2015 6:57pm Jun 8, 2015 6:57pm
are we on the final wave for this trend up. Is the pair have a new trend to the downside long term?
  • #57,258
  • Jun 9, 2015 1:16am Jun 9, 2015 1:16am
Quoting SuperMario21
NIKKEI looks like a bubble that will burst and Yen is oversold .... a couple of week of short on USD/JPY could be an idea
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  • #57,259
  • Jun 9, 2015 1:30am Jun 9, 2015 1:30am
I believe this would be our final wave 5 on the hour chart should be a correction This session
  • #57,260
  • Jun 9, 2015 2:37am Jun 9, 2015 2:37am
did anyone else go long with me ? Good trade from 124.20
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