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  • #998,541
  • Jun 7, 2015 12:39am Jun 7, 2015 12:39am
Quoting verified
{quote} ??? pls explain. wishful thinking ?

Average short price in EU is at ~ 1.1150 and long is ~ 1.20. If you look at the chart you'll see the big breakdown happened around 1.2-1.22. So it's safe to assume majority of retail shorts entered under this level and added to their positions all the way down to 1.045. Push to 1.2 will excite longs even make them add to their positions with the hope that it'll break out even higher and put all the shorts under water. That'd be perfect scenario to inflict the most pain to both longs and shorts and add to long term shorts.

BTW. It's not because banks are evil. It's to create liquidity. They need to run stops, force bulls to sell, shorts to cover to create liquidity, so that they can get in or get out of the market with their HUGE positions. It's not a conspiracy.
  • #998,542
  • Jun 7, 2015 1:05am Jun 7, 2015 1:05am
Quoting cenetti
{quote} All baked in. Nothing you said is new. Everybody and their grandmother knows it and been shorting EU. Long term the trend is down, we all know that. However one push to 1.2-1.25 ... it's all over. 99% of the retail accounts will be under water and stopped out. Always expect the unexpected in forex. The goal of the game is to inflict the most pain to both short and longs. Longs have been in pain for a long time. Now it's time to hurt the shorts a bit. Average short price is around 1.115 and long is 1.20. So I say next stop is 1.20 . When...
I can see 1.10 and back up to 1.14 but not 1.20 for a very long time. To get the U.S. equities market where it is today at around 18,000 it took 5 years of different quantitative easing programs and the U.S. dollar was the victim of it and that was the design. If you're theory is right retail will take the 300 pips here and go long now. I think this is where the burn comes in now. Buyers at 1.11 will find it that it will fall to the psch level of 1.10. This puts USD/JPY at 127. Retail will most likely short it now at 126. Time will tell.

For the euro I see 1.08 before 1.20 easily.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #998,543
  • Jun 7, 2015 1:10am Jun 7, 2015 1:10am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Oh that is such a nice post. Thx
Thanks!
  • #998,544
  • Jun 7, 2015 1:14am Jun 7, 2015 1:14am
Quoting cenetti
{quote} Average short price in EU is at ~ 1.1150 and long is ~ 1.20. If you look at the chart you'll see the big breakdown happened around 1.2-1.22. So it's safe to assume majority of retail shorts entered under this level and added to their positions all the way down to 1.045. Push to 1.2 will excite longs even make them add to their positions with the hope that it'll break out even higher and put all the shorts under water. That'd be perfect scenario to inflict the most pain to both longs and shorts and add to long term shorts. BTW. It's not because...
make sense to me now. thank you, another ( short ) lesson learned.
  • #998,545
  • Jun 7, 2015 3:39am Jun 7, 2015 3:39am
We are now in an intraday downtrend, looking to see what happens at 1.10, see if any bullish signs and a trend change
  • #998,546
  • Jun 7, 2015 4:07am Jun 7, 2015 4:07am
Quoting cenetti
{quote} Average short price in EU is at ~ 1.1150 and long is ~ 1.20. If you look at the chart you'll see the big breakdown happened around 1.2-1.22. So it's safe to assume majority of retail shorts entered under this level and added to their positions all the way down to 1.045. Push to 1.2 will excite longs even make them add to their positions with the hope that it'll break out even higher and put all the shorts under water. That'd be perfect scenario to inflict the most pain to both longs and shorts and add to long term shorts. BTW. It's...
interesting may I ask from where did you get that data is it you own assumption or an accurate data
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #998,547
  • Jun 7, 2015 4:10am Jun 7, 2015 4:10am
Quoting mkvy
We are now in an intraday downtrend, looking to see what happens at 1.10, see if any bullish signs and a trend change
you might be late, the bulls tried to push up the whole time after NFP. The bears did hold down for the number 1.1111 before the WE. We may see just a spike and thats it.
  • #998,548
  • Jun 7, 2015 4:16am Jun 7, 2015 4:16am
BS
  • #998,549
  • Jun 7, 2015 4:31am Jun 7, 2015 4:31am
H1, short. Target: 1.1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h1-forex-ltd.png Size: 71 KB
Trading for a living
  • #998,550
  • Jun 7, 2015 4:49am Jun 7, 2015 4:49am
Quoting Ken A
BS
What is??
  • #998,551
  • Jun 7, 2015 5:11am Jun 7, 2015 5:11am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H111111.gif Size: 189 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.gif Size: 188 KB
  • #998,552
  • Jun 7, 2015 5:20am Jun 7, 2015 5:20am
I attach a chart of the USD index.

I am leaning more towards the bearish USD, after looking at this chart. Still needs confirmation with more signals before I confidentially claiming that this will go south. I would be careful with entering long USD positions against strong currencies based on this. Atleast there might be better entries for that in the future.

The lines marked in red are the two last bottoms for the indicator. Compare it with price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollar indeks.jpg Size: 248 KB
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #998,553
  • Jun 7, 2015 7:26am Jun 7, 2015 7:26am
Quoting KimNguyen
H1, short. Target: 1.1 {image}
Yes I will be looking for any bullish evidence at the 1.10 area, but it may break lower than that ,
  • #998,554
  • Edited 8:23am Jun 7, 2015 8:19am | Edited 8:23am
Quoting Decima
I attach a chart of the USD index. I am leaning more towards the bearish USD, after looking at this chart. Still needs confirmation with more signals before I confidentially claiming that this will go south. I would be careful with entering long USD positions against strong currencies based on this. Atleast there might be better entries for that in the future. The lines marked in red are the two last bottoms for the indicator. Compare it with price. {image}
Hi looking at your chart I can see an inverted h&s,considering that EUR takes over 60% of us index it's safe to say that EUR should be in a medium to long term short trade. High volatility is expected due to fundamental issues, so all traders need to be careful breathing spaces should be given to sls. In short I wouldn't recommend any trades for short term traders, unless you are in it for a medium to long term trades Good luck all
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #998,555
  • Jun 7, 2015 8:51am Jun 7, 2015 8:51am
1.1010 and rise!
what do you think?


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 85 KB
  • #998,556
  • Jun 7, 2015 11:31am Jun 7, 2015 11:31am
Anyone have a review on movement of pair

EURUSD affecting NZDUSD and AUDNZD Pairs in coming week from Jun 7 - Jun 12 2015 ??
Prachait Saxena
  • #998,557
  • Jun 7, 2015 12:06pm Jun 7, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} If you're theory is right retail will take the 300 pips here and go long now. I think this is where the burn comes in now. Buyers at 1.11 will find it that it will fall to the psch level of 1.10.
No, retail is still shorting. Hoping to see new lows. After 3500 pip down trend and a bounce, it takes balls to short - or plain stupidity.

If the average long(buy) price is still around 1.2 then a 100pip drop won't do anything. They're already in pain. And shorts are at break even. If they couldn't make longs run after a drop 1.2s to 1.04s - the best way to create liquidity is to force shorts to cover. All the way to 1.2. And then dump and short again when your average retail buying with the hopes of seeing 'new highs'

These are all my ideas, opinions and speculations btw.. I have no position in EU based on these ideas. I'll be scalping either way. but my point is, it's risky to short after a 1 year down trend and clear double bottom. It may even come down and hit 1.07 and test rising trendline and jump up 1000 pips from there. But I don't see any new lows. :nerd:
  • #998,558
  • Jun 7, 2015 12:16pm Jun 7, 2015 12:16pm
http://www.efxnews.com/story/29236/t...eks-cot-report

Takeaways On USD, EUR, AUD, & Other Majors From This Week's COT Report

RENCH FIN MIN: GREEK EXIT FROM EURO ZONE WOULDN'T BE FINANCIAL CATASTROPHE FOR US
  • #998,559
  • Jun 7, 2015 12:21pm Jun 7, 2015 12:21pm
Quoting Dano12
RENCH FIN MIN: GREEK EXIT FROM EURO ZONE WOULDN'T BE FINANCIAL CATASTROPHE FOR US

Of course it won't. Watch the tune change as the EU get stronger and stronger. Form OMG greece will DEFAULT to Oh who cares. All baked in after a 3500 pip down move with the fear of Greece leaving...
  • #998,560
  • Jun 7, 2015 12:21pm Jun 7, 2015 12:21pm
Quoting Dano12
http://www.efxnews.com/story/29236/t...eks-cot-report Takeaways On USD, EUR, AUD, & Other Majors From This Week's COT Report RENCH FIN MIN: GREEK EXIT FROM EURO ZONE WOULDN'T BE FINANCIAL CATASTROPHE FOR US
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