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  • #998,521
  • Jun 6, 2015 5:17am Jun 6, 2015 5:17am
no worries, I have stop loss in place.

Quoting edyraper
{quote} be carefull body any positive news will make a big bounce , that would be harmful ... thing either ways
  • #998,522
  • Jun 6, 2015 6:12am Jun 6, 2015 6:12am
Quoting bluetoss
as long as there is no end to greece problem, i will still short on EUR.
I believe we will be in the dark regarding the destiny of Greece untill the end of June. They have bought themselves time untill then. In a couple of weeks time nearing the final deadline, I will consider abandoning all EUR trades.

Still, the state of Greece are not able to pay their debt as things are now. That is a fact.

Will this lead to Greece seeking help from other parties? will Russia, China amongst others give them the aid needed? It is not solely economical aspects regarding this, politics might as well be an important factor.

If Greece leaves the EUR, after the initial shock will it be bad for the EUR?

A lot of questions I don`t have the answers for.

Still, untill nearing the end of June, I will follow my system and take what opportunities given by it.

I understand and respect your approach though
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #998,523
  • Jun 6, 2015 6:34am Jun 6, 2015 6:34am
this is just my opinion

what is supporting EURUSD shorts :
- FED possible rate hike
- ECB countinuing QE
- Greece problem
all history we all know and a 10 year old baby can tell us these . it is True and in long run EURUSD shorts will safe

what is supporting EURUSD longs :
- FED gonna rate hike one time and they maybe leave it as just one time rate hike and maybe they won't hike rates every meeting after they did fisrt one maybe 1 or 2 times a year .
- ECB QE seems worked and the datas gonna be better and better and market buys future as we do QE gonna work in future and we gonna see fixed no problem eurzone in future * market just buying the future earlier .
- Greece problem solved every time at the last minute and they are not gonna be ooopsy sorry we can't solve this problem . let's leave it that way , the last minute call will change the mid-term Trend in eurusd to the upside as I believe .
- Always technical analysis and fundies analysis working together as we seeing in Technical analysis it is time for start a new uptrend in this pair and the target seems to be 1.18-1.23 area in mid-term and if we gonna see parity and lower we should visit the area up there .

for a short time analysis I seeing any possible Drop to 1.04 area as i see a nice place to long EUR for a target above 1.18 for those who can keep the positions for long time . to sum up , I see there is a potential this month to see 1.04 area as we saw a nice NFP last friday . and probably hawkish FED and hawkish Yellen because of NFP and the last nice Inflation report and the last good data about hourly earnings . okay the september rate hike would be a hawkish and a 99% chance for the FED to hike the rates . then what ? I believe this that we are going to see 1.20 and 1.00 level in this pair in this year . so long or short if which one comes first , means I gonna long around 1.00 or gonna short around 1.20 , this is just my opinion about market do not take this serious . Happy pips .
  • #998,524
  • Jun 6, 2015 6:45am Jun 6, 2015 6:45am
edyraper:

I should specifiy my time horizon, it is only the next movement I believe will happen. So when target is hit/or not hit and the signals change. I am back to scratch regarding the trade or involved currencies.

I try not do get attached to opinions, atleast not for long time opinions. The forex market these days are getting more and more unpredictable. Due to the players playing it has changed slightly. Algorithmic trading etc, is changing things. Untill the early 2000`s things were easier according to some playing the game back then as well. The fundamentals played a much bigger part. Things were more predictable.

Fundamentals still are important, still things have changed. 1+1 doesn`t always equals 2. Sometimes it first equals 3, then afterwards it equals 2
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #998,525
  • Jun 6, 2015 6:46am Jun 6, 2015 6:46am
Quoting edyraper
this is just my opinion what is supporting EURUSD shorts : - FED possible rate hike - ECB countinuing QE - Greece problem all history we all know and a 10 year old baby can tell us these . it is True and in long run EURUSD shorts will safe what is supporting EURUSD longs : - FED gonna rate hike one time and they maybe leave it as just one time rate hike and maybe they won't hike rates every meeting after they did fisrt one maybe 1 or 2 times a year . - ECB QE seems worked and the datas gonna be better and better and market buys future as we do QE...
You're missing bund yields.
  • #998,526
  • Jun 6, 2015 6:51am Jun 6, 2015 6:51am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} be carefull body any positive news will make a big bounce , that would be harmful ... thing either ways
could do with a bounce up to 1.12 to form a lower high, with further definition of a downtrend. 1.10 has been violated downwards previously so is less significant than it may have been before. We will see on monday if the down move is more aggresive downtrend by not breaching 1.1135 area which was support earlier last week, may turn into confirmed resistance..

Flip Flop trading, support to resistance! as any downtrend can show
  • #998,527
  • Jun 6, 2015 7:34am Jun 6, 2015 7:34am
Bigger picture (weekly & daily).
Wouldn't get too bearish yet.
Weekly still making HH/HL.
Daily still above "flip zone".
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 29 KB
  • #998,528
  • Jun 6, 2015 7:46am Jun 6, 2015 7:46am
Quoting gatorinla
. http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...spx?data=yield
Gator, the retracement seems to have finished. Where you think it is going from now in your opinion ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 60 KB
Intraday only.
  • #998,529
  • Jun 6, 2015 8:35am Jun 6, 2015 8:35am
Quoting srt
Bigger picture (weekly & daily). Wouldn't get too bearish yet. Weekly still making HH/HL. Daily still above "flip zone". {image} {image}
i think your lowest rectangle can go down a bit more... until we get a bullish engulfing daily candle printing out..

This week im going to trade the bigger picture due to lack of screen time availability.. cant wait to see what ozzy does when it gets down a bit more to a major stuructural support zone
  • #998,530
  • Jun 6, 2015 9:33am Jun 6, 2015 9:33am
Quoting edyraper
this is just my opinion what is supporting EURUSD shorts : - FED possible rate hike - ECB countinuing QE - Greece problem all history we all know and a 10 year old baby can tell us these . it is True and in long run EURUSD shorts will safe what is supporting EURUSD longs : - FED gonna rate hike one time and they maybe leave it as just one time rate hike and maybe they won't hike rates every meeting after they did fisrt one maybe 1 or 2 times a year . - ECB QE seems worked and the datas gonna be better and better and market buys future as we do QE...
But if we go to 1.000 its probably going to be due to hike. So this means youll be longing on hike environment. It all depends though how far and fast we move, but if they do plan to hike every month extra then there shouldnt be large bounce from 1.000 upwards. Not sure if your analysis makes a lot sense, better way would be wait for hike and ride it down in whatever decent pullbacks. 1.000 is large number though so expecting bounce there makes sense, but with hikes going on if they do, it doesnt have to be strong one.
  • #998,531
  • Jun 6, 2015 9:49am Jun 6, 2015 9:49am
euro
https://www.tradingview.com/x/B35T7UVL/
  • #998,532
  • Jun 6, 2015 12:38pm Jun 6, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting airmac
euro https://www.tradingview.com/x/B35T7UVL/
Thanks airmac.. I remember that Dano made a similar projection that supports your idea..

Dano's post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post8305593

Happy Weekends
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #998,533
  • Jun 6, 2015 2:40pm Jun 6, 2015 2:40pm
the last few hours in the market the trading range was so tight on the hour chart and the 4 hour chart.
  • #998,534
  • Jun 6, 2015 3:29pm Jun 6, 2015 3:29pm
Hello
can someone explain me why the rising Euro bond yields (falling bond prices) pushed EUR/USD up? I read that the investors have hedged their Euro bond positions with short euro contracts and when they sold their bonds, they unwound the hedges, thus effectively buying euro.
But I do not understand why the investors unwound the hedges? If they felt that it is necessary to hedge euro denominated bonds, then it seems logical that the same hedge would be needed for their euro in cash? (They would have euro in cash after selling the bonds). And probably they will end selling this euro in cash and buying USD or JPY?
  • #998,535
  • Jun 6, 2015 9:11pm Jun 6, 2015 9:11pm
Quoting bluetoss
as long as there is no end to greece problem, i will still short on EUR.

EU dropped 3500 pip since last year. Greece, mreece all baked in. As always retailers are late to the party. Shorting when the big money is covering.
  • #998,536
  • Jun 6, 2015 10:46pm Jun 6, 2015 10:46pm
Quoting cenetti
{quote} EU dropped 3500 pip since last year. Greece, mreece all baked in. As always retailers are late to the party. Shorting when the big money is covering.
There is a lot not priced into the euro at this current level. This is just the beginning of a multi year reversal of the USD after a 12 year downtrend. The ECB' Draghi is getting very aggressive and is stepping on the gas pedal to increase QE throughout the summer. At some point the Fed will begin to normalize monetary policy and start raising rates. With a Trillion dollar bond buying program that is continuing and even negative deposit rates I would not be surprised to if the euro becomes just like the Japanese yen. Parity with the dollar is coming.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #998,537
  • Jun 6, 2015 10:48pm Jun 6, 2015 10:48pm
There is a lot not priced into the euro at this current level. This is just the beginning of a multi year reversal of the USD after a 12 year downtrend. The ECB' Draghi is getting very aggressive and is stepping on the gas pedal to increase QE throughout the summer. At some point the Fed will begin to normalize monetary policy and start raising rates. With a Trillion dollar bond buying program that is continuing on the ECB side and even negative deposit rates I would not be surprised to if the euro becomes just like the Japanese yen. Parity with the dollar is coming.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #998,538
  • Jun 6, 2015 11:35pm Jun 6, 2015 11:35pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} There is a lot not priced into the euro at this current level. This is just the beginning of a multi year reversal of the USD after a 12 year downtrend. The ECB' Draghi is getting very aggressive and is stepping on the gas pedal to increase QE throughout the summer. At some point the Fed will begin to normalize monetary policy and start raising rates. With a Trillion dollar bond buying program that is continuing and even negative deposit rates I would not be surprised to if the euro becomes just like the Japanese yen. Parity with the dollar...
All baked in. Nothing you said is new. Everybody and their grandmother knows it and been shorting EU. Long term the trend is down, we all know that. However one push to 1.2-1.25 ... it's all over. 99% of the retail accounts will be under water and stopped out.

Always expect the unexpected in forex. The goal of the game is to inflict the most pain to both short and longs. Longs have been in pain for a long time. Now it's time to hurt the shorts a bit. Average short price is around 1.115 and long is 1.20. So I say next stop is 1.20 .

When we hit 1.2 tide will turn and retails will be buying (late as always) that'll be the time to short again for continuation of the down trend. Good luck either way.
  • #998,539
  • Jun 6, 2015 11:50pm Jun 6, 2015 11:50pm
Quoting cenetti
{quote} All baked in. Nothing you said is new. Everybody and their grandmother knows it and been shorting EU. Long term the trend is down, we all know that. However one push to 1.2-1.25 ... it's all over. 99% of the retail accounts will be under water and stopped out. Always expect the unexpected in forex. The goal of the game is to inflict the most pain to both short and longs. Longs have been in pain for a long time. Now it's time to hurt the shorts a bit. Average short price is around 1.115 and long is 1.20. So I say next stop is 1.20...
??? pls explain. wishful thinking ?
  • #998,540
  • Jun 6, 2015 11:56pm Jun 6, 2015 11:56pm
1 hour chart EUR/USD...

I think price is going to visit 1.1180 and from here we will fall again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 35 KB
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
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