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  • #997,721
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:42pm Jun 4, 2015 1:42pm
I have my TA show 1.12060 as a as a support (which was previously a resistance level), and I think the price will go further up a bit before going back down..

Does that make sense? I'm just a beginner/don't take my advice whatsoever, just need confirmation/advice..
  • #997,722
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:42pm Jun 4, 2015 1:42pm
The bund tanked, optimism for solution to Greece has evaporated, US data has started to look not bad, EU is falling through supports and looks like printing a daily pinbar. What am I missing that EU bulls see?
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #997,723
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:43pm Jun 4, 2015 1:43pm
The uptrend has been invalidated by a new lower low...
Time for a downtrend.. FXTyrant, Time to wake from your slumber!!
  • #997,724
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:45pm Jun 4, 2015 1:45pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I understand that. I understand that it will never and was never planned to be paid back (at least after it became clear months/years/whatever ago). These guys arent idiots, they knew the money wasnt there, and wouldnt be there. Yet here we are. I love and hate these little graphics http://demonocracy.info/infographics...ebt_greek.html {image} {image}
add private loans that will not set well with property value drops. as liquidity tightens. (far reaching allover world banks, back by countries,, code word for common man)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #997,725
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:47pm Jun 4, 2015 1:47pm
Those greeks are seriously getting on my nerves now...

This is not trading anymore, this is gambling.
"Tips are for waiters." - Reminiscences of a stock operator
  • #997,726
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:50pm Jun 4, 2015 1:50pm
Quoting taru
The bund tanked, optimism for solution to Greece has evaporated, US data has started to look not bad, EU is falling through supports and looks like printing a daily pinbar. What am I missing that EU bulls see?
Taru, this a textbook ABC retracement. You can clearly see it on the hourly chart. It happens often in New York afternoon session. The uptrend has not been violated yet. However, the recent fundamental news that is Greece a couple hours ago, could put a wrench on this this. We just need to see where they print. They need to close an hourly candle below 1.1200 for the uptrend to be violated in my opinion. Just my view here, I see this happen day in and day out
Don't trade the noise
  • #997,727
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:54pm Jun 4, 2015 1:54pm
Greece delyed debt issues, tomorrow nfp data, nasty looking shooting star on dayly.
Expecting fireworks for tomorrow.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #997,728
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:56pm Jun 4, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting Winthorpe
Those greeks are seriously getting on my nerves now... This is not trading anymore, this is gambling.
its not the Greeks. its the fools who lent the money. send me a 10 million bucks..i will show u how it works.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #997,729
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:02pm Jun 4, 2015 2:02pm
1.0000 next target
  • #997,730
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:08pm Jun 4, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting TTFXHammer
{quote} Taru, this a textbook ABC retracement. You can clearly see it on the hourly chart. It happens often in New York afternoon session. The uptrend has not been violated yet. However, the recent fundamental news that is Greece a couple hours ago, could put a wrench on this this. We just need to see where they print. They need to close an hourly candle below 1.1200 for the uptrend to be violated in my opinion. Just my view here, I see this happen day in and day out
Thanks. Fingers crossed for 1.1200.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #997,731
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:12pm Jun 4, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting taru
{quote} Thanks. Fingers crossed for 1.1200.
I have ~1.1220 for bears to take control, about 20 less for you
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  • #997,732
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:16pm Jun 4, 2015 2:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} imf bundling June Greek payment. it pushes it back later in the month, who would of thought. not sure about last time in 2008/09 but i do know at that time unemployment was much higher. wage inflation when u rates are low is a different animal
.

Yes, that's what I mean. That number, as I understand it is output/hours worked. So back at the bottom, when you had employers cutting jobs, one person might end up doing the work previously done by two. Maybe that person cut some corners and didn't produce quite as much as two would have, and added some time but you got maybe 85% of the output for maybe 60% (just guessing here) of the cost/hours, and the ones left holding the bag did it because they were happy to still have a job. Which, from what I read at the time, went on a lot. When the job market improves, people in that kind of situation look for a better one if things don't improve, which might mean more people going on unemployment temporarily, but might also mean employers returning some of those positions they previously got rid of (two guys for two positions, instead of 1 guy for two positions), in order to be able to attract people to fill it. So you get back to 100% of the output but also 100% of the cost. I'm wondering if that's what's happening now, because GDP's been going up, the number of employed persons is also going up and the number of job cuts is falling. And you have initial jobless claims going up a bit but continuing claims dropping. So if that's why productivity is falling it would also translate to a kind of hidden wage inflation, but also to a better NFP if that's what is happening
  • #997,733
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:16pm Jun 4, 2015 2:16pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Back In LONG EU at 1.12350
OUT
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #997,734
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:17pm Jun 4, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting mkvy
1.0000 next target
Not yet...we need to get around 1,15/1,18 area before 1,0000...in my opinion...
  • #997,735
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:19pm Jun 4, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} add private loans that will not set well with property value drops. as liquidity tightens. (far reaching allover world banks, back by countries,, code word for common man)
Exactly what I mean.

Seems like a probable financial crisis the world over. We thought lehman brothers rattled the world financial markets

When Greece's financial system burns to the ground, who gets drug down with it? Then the doors are wide open for anyone with a tank and a gun to waltz right in and claim a new Greece. (I know you've said this one)

If anything has rung true thus far regarding any of this banking business....is we dont even know exactly how bad it is. Just what they choose to feed the sheep. You don't keep lending a country money when you know it cant be paid back unless there's some other reason thats worth 400+ billion.

perhaps its time for me to take my tin foil hat and go back into the closet.

EU has only just started printing the life support money....what about when Greece melts? Can they even print enough?
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  • #997,736
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:20pm Jun 4, 2015 2:20pm
How many times have you seen them pump price one way or the other going into NFP, only to do the opposite after the release? In my little world....US data has showed slight improvement over the last 2 weeks while Greece continues with it's crap. Yet, the dollar has been sold over that time. Is it possible that there's an agenda in play here? I see them buying this up and holding somewhere around 1.1420-1.1460 just in front of NFP. If NFP good, hammer the sucker...if bad, break out above the 1.1460 area and go for the gold. However, I'm leaning more towards a hard sell off after NFP tomorrow....either way it goes, I'll close any open positions before the release and see what happens. Let's see how this plays out, should get some fireworks indeed
Don't trade the noise
  • #997,737
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:23pm Jun 4, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting SuperMario21
{quote} Not yet...we need to get around 1,15/1,18 area before 1,0000...in my opinion...
zoom out the daily or 4 hour... you will see a huge trendline of resistance... BINGO!
  • #997,738
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:24pm Jun 4, 2015 2:24pm
The movement for EU , GU is accordingly. It amazes one if you see and know how tricky these trends can be. But at the long run it ALWAYS COME BACK to correct itself. Interesting!
  • #997,739
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:27pm Jun 4, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} zoom out the daily or 4 hour... you will see a huge trendline of resistance... BINGO!
Don't give too much credits to trendlines. I can draw td randomly, at some point there will be either a bounce or a break up
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #997,740
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:32pm Jun 4, 2015 2:32pm
do not think about truth , think about what the market believs and right now market believs bad us data and good euroze will come more so be with the market , truth always gonna work in long long term but we all know that we are not a long tim trader !
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